This project will refine the hierarchical prioritization within and across the Texas Native Fish Conservation Areas (NFCAs) for integration into the comprehensive revisions of the Texas Conservation Action Plan in 2025. Research products (SDMs and hierarchical prioritization of NFCAs) will guide efforts that result in long-term focus for management and make the most efficient use of limited conservation resources for maintaining or improving conditions for Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) fishes. Research products can subsequently be used to support efforts such as: updating Species Status Assessments used to inform revisions of the SGCN and State Threatened and Endangered species lists, refining the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Crucial Habitat Assessment Tool aquatics layer, refining the aquatics layer of the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies SouthEast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS) Blueprint, and refining a regulatory toolkit used by TPWD to ensure consideration of SGCN in exotic species, commercial fisheries, and aquaculture permitting decisions. This effort has three main Objectives:
Objective 1) Develop species distribution models (SDMs, e.g. probability of occurrence) primarily based on the Fishes of Texas (FoTX) project database. An ensemble approach will be used to average results across model classes such as generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and machine learning methods (e.g., boosted regression trees or random forest models). A second approach to be considered is to construct Bayesian hierarchical models, which can also increase accuracy over more traditional single-species and generalized linear model approaches.
Objective 2 – Refine spatial prioritization by using probability of occurrences (from Obj. 1) with conservation planning software, Zonation, to spatially rank statewide conservation value of freshwater systems (Moilanen 2012). We will build upon the current NFCA prioritization framework, determining conservation value and primary prioritization of geographic areas by emphasizing species representation, rather than species richness.
Objective 3 – Coordinate the use of supporting datasets and research products (SDMs and hierarchical NFCA prioritization) with TPWD. Findings will be summarized and presented to conservation stakeholders by the middle of the final year of the project.