Frequent, low-intensity wildfires were once widespread across the Southeast US, which led to a reduction in unchecked vegetation growth that provided fuel for high-intensity fires. Both intentional and unintentional fire suppression and land-use changes have reduced many of these wildfires and the fire-adapted habitats in the region over time. This loss of frequent low-intensity wildfires on the landscape also increases the severity of wildfires due to fuel buildup and the encroachment of woody species. The remaining habitats and their native species (many of which are of conservation concern) are now almost completely dependent on prescribed burns for their persistence and survival. Successful application of fire in this region requires careful planning and assessment of the risks and trade-offs involved when deciding whether or not to conduct a controlled burn.
Many of these risks are closely tied to environmental conditions and are reflected in sets of ‘prescription’ parameters that define operating conditions where the risk level is considered acceptable. Recent research funded by the Southeast CASC suggests that climate change could reduce opportunities for prescribed burning. This could lead to a delay in prescribed fire plans or managers being forced to reconsider their evaluation of risks and tradeoffs of prescribed burning. To aid decision-makers in meeting their objectives of fire-risk reduction and habitat improvement, this project proposes the development of a prototype model. This model will characterize short-term and long-term risks induced by climate change for Prescribed Fire Managers (PRMs) in the Southeast US. This project’s state-of-the-science methods involve three objectives: characterize the ‘fail-states’ where managers should avoid the use of prescribed fire, characterize the risk of experiencing these ‘fail-states’, and characterize extreme wildfire risk based on long-term climate model projections. When combined with updated model projections of extreme wildfires, this research will provide the most comprehensive assessment of climate-related fire risk for the region.
