Throughout the Pacific Northwest, invasive flora threaten river ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. Invasive plants harm water quality, occupy habitat for native species, reduce recreation opportunities, and damage infrastructure such as pumps and dams. Resource managers from federal, state, and local agencies, as well as local non-profits, spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on monitoring and exterminating invasive plants. Management costs and damages are likely to rise as climate change warms temperatures and reduces rainfall across the basin, expanding potential habitat for invasive plants and affecting the effectiveness of management.
For some time, scientists have recognized the potential of climate change to make non-native invasions more frequent, especially in aquatic systems. Yet several barriers prevent managers from making informed decisions on how to respond to this threat. There are few case study examples projecting how climate will affect specific plant species in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, determining the environmental conditions where monitoring and extermination programs (e.g., herbicide applications) are successful is limited by inconsistent management records distributed across multiple agencies and organizations.
This project addresses these data gaps through two parallel efforts. By combining and standardizing management records across agencies, researchers will help managers understand where efforts have been successful and how climate change will affect treatment and monitoring programs. Researchers are also building climate-dependent Species Distribution Models for three important aquatic invasive plant species (water primrose, giant knotweed, and Japanese knotweed), which will allow managers to see where these species are most likely to establish. The results will help managers evaluate which species are most threatening in the face of climate change, and which communities are most likely to face rising management costs, allowing them to better distribute limited resources across Pacific Northwest river basins.
