Final Report: Assessing Future Changes to Spring Phenology and False Springs in the South Central United States
Dates
Publication Date
2022-08-05
Citation
Adrienne Wootten, 2022-08-05, Final Report: Assessing Future Changes to Spring Phenology and False Springs in the South Central United States: .
Summary
The timing of first leaf and first bloom is a critical indicator of spring phenology and false springs have known harmful impacts to ecosystems and agriculture in the United States. The timing of first leaf and first bloom is critically important for migratory species along their migratory paths. As the climate changes, the mismatch between the first leaf and first bloom and the arrival or emergence of species (called phenological mismatch) is a potential danger for the survival of multiple species under climate change. This project produced projections of first leaf, first bloom, and the risk of false springs for the South Central CASC region. Findings from this study suggest that first leaf and first bloom will happen earlier while [...]
Summary
The timing of first leaf and first bloom is a critical indicator of spring phenology and false springs have known harmful impacts to ecosystems and agriculture in the United States. The timing of first leaf and first bloom is critically important for migratory species along their migratory paths. As the climate changes, the mismatch between the first leaf and first bloom and the arrival or emergence of species (called phenological mismatch) is a potential danger for the survival of multiple species under climate change. This project produced projections of first leaf, first bloom, and the risk of false springs for the South Central CASC region. Findings from this study suggest that first leaf and first bloom will happen earlier while the risk of false spring will increase in the northwest portions of the region and decrease in the rest of the domain. This project demonstrates that well known spring phenological indices can be used to produce projections of spring phenology and false springs for this study region. The data produced by this project will be useful for adaptation planning related to species of concern, the R package produced under this project enables the production of additional projections of spring phenology and false springs nationally.