Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in Rain-On-Snow Events and Their Influence on Future Streamflows, Stream Temperatures, and Management Priorities in the Great Lakes Basin

Rain-on-snow events occur when warm rain falls on an existing snowpack, causing rapid snowmelt that can lead to damaging floods, reduced spring and summer streamflow, and altered stream temperatures, with ecological, social, and economic consequences. Rain-on-snow events can result in a loss of riverine biodiversity, decreases in fisheries production, and degradation of stream habitat; water shortages for communities and reduced water quality; .and have repercussions for navigation and commercial transportation, hydroelectric power generation, recreation, invasive species control, and harbors and marinas. Considering the diverse impacts of rain-on-snow events, it is important to understand how rain-on-snow events will affect streamflow regimes, stream ecosystems, local communities, and management decisions under climate change.   

Rain-on-snow events greatly impact the Great Lakes Basin, where rain-on-snow melt has been with a factor in approximately one quarter of the most extreme snowmelt events from 1980-2009. The goal of this project is to identify how climate change influences rain-on-snow melt, hydrology, and stream temperatures in the Great Lakes Basin throughout the 21st century. Researchers will combine future projections of temperature and precipitation with a hydrologic model that will simulate the water cycle (e.g., streamflow, soil moisture, snowmelt) and stream temperatures throughout the entire Great Lakes Basin.  

The results of this project will provide guidance for protecting threatened and endangered species, managing fisheries during periods of high stream temperature or low streamflow, and identify watersheds and rivers to target with restoration and mitigation efforts. Findings will be shared via a website developed in conjunction with local communities, including the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians.