Skip to main content

Fire Risk Scores from Predictive Model Based on Flammability and Fire Ecology of Non-Native Hawaiian Plants from 2020-2021

Dates

Publication Date
Start Date
2020
End Date
2021

Citation

Faccenda, K., Daehler, C., and Stiebach, R., 2023, Fire risk scores from predictive model based on flammability and fire ecology of non-native Hawaiian plants from 2020-2021: National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers, https://doi.org/10.21429/YDVG-CJ32

Summary

We developed a screening system to identify introduced plant species that are likely to increase wildfire risk, using the Hawaiian Islands to test the system and illustrate how the system can be applied to inform management decisions. Expert-based fire risk scores derived from field experiences with 49 invasive species in Hawai′i were used to train a machine learning model that predicts expert fire risk scores from among 21 plant traits obtained from literature and databases. The model revealed that just four variables can identify species categorized as higher fire risk by experts with 90% accuracy, while low risk species were identified with 79% accuracy. We then used the predictive model to screen 365 naturalized plants in Hawai′i [...]

Contacts

Attached Files

Click on title to download individual files attached to this item.

All_Weed_Fire_Risk_Assessments_Nov2021.csv
“dataset”
747.88 KB text/csv

Purpose

The Weed Fire Risk Database assesses 360+ plant species for their fire-promoting traits and provides a computer model-generated fire risk score between 0 (no risk) and 1 (highest risk) for each plant species. A plant scoring above the threshold of about .3 should be considered higher risk and a potential concern as a wildfire promoter. In addition to identifying plant species that are likely to pose high wildfire risk in Hawai'i, this information may also be useful to predict post-fire responses, as available fire regeneration characteristics of each plant species are also summarized. Note that the analysis doesn't account for a plant species' spatial distribution, population density, or distinct climate and ecosystem conditions (which can also influence fire risk). The fire risk of these species are mostly under "worst case" environmental conditions where the climate is dry enough to maintain fire, but wet enough to allow for plant growth and fuel accumulation. The fire risk ranking should not be taken as a stand-alone risk metric in prioritizing weed control efforts. Rather, this information may also be useful for determining if a newly discovered species poses a potential fire threat in wildland areas.

Map

Spatial Services

ScienceBase WMS

Communities

  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Pacific Islands CASC

Tags

Provenance

Data source
Input directly

Additional Information

Identifiers

Type Scheme Key
DOI https://www.sciencebase.gov/vocab/category/item/identifier doi.org/10.21429/ydvg-cj32

Citation Extension

citationTypeData Release

Item Actions

View Item as ...

Save Item as ...

View Item...