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Counterfactual Analysis

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Stackpoole, S.M., Sabo, R.D., and Falcone, J.A., 2024, Nutrient balances, river loads, and a counterfactual analysis to determine drivers of Mississippi River nitrogen and phosphorus loads between 1975 and 2017: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P97TCDQJ.

Summary

We explored the possible causes of change in Mississippi River nutrient load trends through an impact evaluation that utilizes counterfactual scenarios to compare observed changes in river loads to changes in river load that might have occurred in the absence of potential causal factors. Prior to the counterfactual analysis, we developed a multiple linear regression model to predict TN and TP load changes over time. We modeled annual FN river loads as a function of current nutrient balances, lagged nutrient balances, and a latent variable representing the aggregate effect of other potential causal factors. We examined two different counterfactual scenarios, using hypothetical inputs to the calibrated TN and TP regression models. For [...]

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annotated R script regression model and counterfactual analysis_version2.R
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