Final Report: Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.
Dates
Publication Date
2024-10-29
Citation
Krishna Pacifici, 2024-10-29, Final Report: Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.: U.S. Geological Survey.
Summary
Climate change is influencing temperature, precipitation, and the temporal availability of resources required for successful reproduction and survival. Implications for the economically and culturally important eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) are largely unknown. Therefore, we assessed associations between observed weather and eastern wild turkey nest initiation timing and nest survival and then projected observed associations under multiple climate change scenarios to assess potential implications of future climate change. Nest initiation date was influenced by temperature and precipitation, but projected changes associated with climate change shift nest initiation date by <0.1 day by 2041-2060. Timing of spring [...]
Summary
Climate change is influencing temperature, precipitation, and the temporal availability of resources required for successful reproduction and survival. Implications for the economically and culturally important eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) are largely unknown. Therefore, we assessed associations between observed weather and eastern wild turkey nest initiation timing and nest survival and then projected observed associations under multiple climate change scenarios to assess potential implications of future climate change. Nest initiation date was influenced by temperature and precipitation, but projected changes associated with climate change shift nest initiation date by <0.1 day by 2041-2060. Timing of spring green-up was not a predictor of nest initiation timing. This mismatch between spring green-up and wild turkey nest initiation could influence nest success or nest survival. However, our subsequent analyses found that climate change induced shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to minimally influence nest success because observed relationships largely offset one another. Analyses into associations between weather and brood survival, the final piece of this puzzle, are ongoing. While we cannot yet speculate on the possibility of neutral or positive associations between projected future climate conditions and brood survival, analyses to-date find no negative associations. As eastern wild turkey populations continue to decline, it is reassuring to find little evidence that projected climate change over the next several decades will directly add to these declines. This information enables managers to shift focus and resources to understanding drivers of current declines, and their future implications for eastern wild turkey populations.
