Final Report: The Impact of Future Climate Variability on Shorebirds and Their Wetland Habitats in the South-Central U.S.
Dates
Publication Date
2025-01-22
Citation
Craig Davis, and Scott Loss, 2025-01-22, Final Report: The Impact of Future Climate Variability on Shorebirds and Their Wetland Habitats in the South-Central U.S.: U.S. Geological Survey.
Summary
Climate change imperils wetlands throughout the Southern Great Plains (SGP), including connections among wetlands that facilitate movements and prevent extinctions for wetland wildlife. Wetland managers and policymakers need greater access to climate-informed projections of wetland extent and inundation as they decide where to prioritize wetland and shorebird conservation efforts. This research developed predictive models to show future wetland inundation patterns and gathered shorebird habitat and movement data to better understand how climate change may affect wetland connectivity and use by migrant shorebirds in the SGP. To better inform future conservation strategies, we surveyed wetland managers about climate impacts on wetlands [...]
Summary
Climate change imperils wetlands throughout the Southern Great Plains (SGP), including connections among wetlands that facilitate movements and prevent extinctions for wetland wildlife. Wetland managers and policymakers need greater access to climate-informed projections of wetland extent and inundation as they decide where to prioritize wetland and shorebird conservation efforts. This research developed predictive models to show future wetland inundation patterns and gathered shorebird habitat and movement data to better understand how climate change may affect wetland connectivity and use by migrant shorebirds in the SGP. To better inform future conservation strategies, we surveyed wetland managers about climate impacts on wetlands and wetland management. Overall, our models consistently projected fewer inundated wetlands across a range of climate projection scenarios, but the effects of climate change will vary across regions. Our models also indicated a more consistent decrease in wetlands during the spring than the fall. Using citizen science data from 9 shorebird species, we found that regardless of precipitation conditions, all species were more abundant in locations with greater percent area of lakes or higher densities of wetlands. From our surveys, we found a majority of wetland managers are concerned about climate change impacts on wetlands and have implemented climate adaptation strategies. However, their climate adaptation strategies are currently focused on short-term projects, typically underfunded, and not broadly-connected with other projects. A key takeaway is that increased precipitation variability poses the largest threat to wetland availability, and migrant shorebird use of wetlands as stopovers could be significantly hampered. Shorebird conservation plans should consider a variety of waterbody types, including lakes and rivers, to provide stopover options, especially during severe droughts. Despite some shortcomings in climate adaptation strategies, our survey results suggest that there is considerable opportunity to continue developing capacity for climate change adaptation for wetlands in the SGP.