Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change

Publication Date

2018

Rashford, B.S., Reese, G.C., 2018, Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9CRDP6K.

The purpose of this project was to estimate and map the probability that grassland converts to cropland in the northern plains and prairie region given potential climate change. This region, which spans portions of Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa, provides critical breeding and migratory habitat for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species, and is also a highly productive agricultural region. Planning for the effects of climate change in this region is a high priority for the Plains and Prairie Pothole LCC and managers at federal, regional, and local levels (e.g. North American Waterfowl Management Plan 2012). Climate models for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) project increasing temperatures and little to no increases in precipitation (though potentially more variability), leading to reductions in wetland habitat through increased evapotranspiration (Johnson et al. 2010). Populations of waterfowl and other species often decrease during droughts (Sorenson et al. 1998), raising concerns that hunting opportunities could be compromised and that the long-term viability of non-game populations may be at risk. Changes in climate can also have indirect effects on biodiversity by driving changes in human land use. Warmer temperatures, resulting in longer crop growing seasons and changes in crop yields, could incentivize landowners to alter their land-management practices or to transition from less intensive grassland uses to intensive row crop production (Rashford et al. 2010), which alters habitats and wetland functions (Rashford et al. 2016). Understanding the full effect of climate change on habitat therefore requires accounting for both the direct (e.g., increased evapotranspiration) and indirect effects (e.g., land-use change) (Attavanich et al. 2014).

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• North Central CASC

Data source

Input directly