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Future Aquatic Invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How Climate Change, Human Vectors, and Natural History Could Bring Southern and Western Species North

Principal Investigator
Wesley M Daniel


Start Date
End Date
Release Date


There are significant investments by states and resource agencies in the northeast U.S. for invasive aquatic species monitoring and management. These investments in jurisdictional waters help maintain their use for drinking, industry, and recreation. It is essential to understand the risks from invasive species, because once established, species can be costly to society and difficult or impossible to control. Identifying which species are most likely to move into a new region and cause harmful impacts can aid in preventing introductions and establishment. This is especially important in response to climate change as habitats potentially become usable to previously range-restricted species. Currently, hundreds of invasive aquatic [...]

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“Invasive Asian shore crab carrying eggs at Lovell's Island; Credit: Sarah Endyke”
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Project Extension

projectStatusIn Progress

Invasive Asian shore crab carrying eggs at Lovell's Island; Credit: Sarah Endyke
Invasive Asian shore crab carrying eggs at Lovell's Island; Credit: Sarah Endyke


Spatial Services

ScienceBase WMS


  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Northeast CASC



Additional Information

Data Management Plan Extension

descriptionPublic interface on the NAS Database to allows to interact with the created modeled risk assessments
repositoryUSGS NAS Database
webToolMaintenanceAndSupportThe WARC Computer Application Team will build the public interface and perform numerous checks on the quality of the web interface (including security) that meet the requirements of USGS and DOI.
backupAndStorageDuring the project, all processing stages of this data product will be stored and backed up on the NAS Database remote server at USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.
nameSoftware for Assisted Habitat Modeling
descriptionTabular summaries for each species that includes summary metrics of each area (e.g., HUC12 or units identified by managers in workshops or other communications) and summaries for each area that includes summary metrics of for each species. Columns in tables would include information such as distance to known occurrence, estimated suitable habitat at time X, and risk score.
repositoryScienceBase and served on the web tool
qualityChecksThese will be simple summaries from the other products described above, which have their own quality checks. We will review scripts to summarize data.
formatThe data will csv tables in long format, one for species and one for areas.
restrictionsNone. This will be public facing outreach to stakeholders.
backupAndStorageDuring the project, all processing stages of this data product will be stored and backed up on local network drives at USGS FORT.
dataManagementResourcesThese data are summary tables of the spatial data products, and will be created at the end of the project. Data management activities for this product will include QA/QC of code to generate the summaries and xml metadata. Estimated time includes 2 weeks of Engelstad.
volumeEstimateEstimate the volume of information generated: ~1 GB.
dataProcessingWe have a similar workflow developed for INHABIT, as referenced elsewhere, and will modify this workflow to meet the needs of this project.
nameSuitability Maps
descriptionNational Hydrography Dataset Plus is a national geospatial surface water framework. Geospatial analysts and modelers use this framework to support water resources applications.
sourceHorizon Systems Corporation contracted through USGS and EPA (
qualityChecksThis is a published data set that has its own checks that we will be using.
citationU.S. Geological Survey, 2017, National Hydrography Dataset Plus High Resolution (NHDPlus HR) - USGS National Map Downloadable Data Collection
formatSpatial data set.
restrictionsNo restrictions.
backupAndStorageRaw data from dataset is stored and backed up on ScienceBase. Derived or intermediate versions of this dataset (or subsets thereof) will be stored and backed up on local network drives at USGS FORT.
volumeEstimate< 1 TB
dataProcessingUsed to define where waterbodies are on the landscape.
nameInvasive species occurrence data
history2022-06-08 09:26:53 MDT: phase Approved DMP
modelVersionSAHM v.2_2_1
descriptionProduce and visualize correlative species distribution models including data input, processing, selection, model fitting, and visualizing outputs using machine learning algorithms (boosted regression trees, generalized linear models, multiadaptive regression splines, Maxent, and randomForest).
sourceMorisette et al. 2013. VisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling. Ecography 36:129-135.;
modelInputsSpecies locations and potential predictor variables as rasters.
calibrationDetailsAll models will be assessed with the follow two methods. First, a 70/30 split will divide occurrence data into training and testing splits, accordingly. Second, within the training split, a 10-fold internal cross-validation will aid model fitness and calibration using a number of evaluation metrics (e.g., AUC, AUC-PR, Boyce Index) and inspection of predictor response curves.
modelOutputsRelative habitat suitability models applied to current and future predictor layers.
nameSoftware for Assisted Habitat Modeling
phaseApproved DMP
templateNameCASC DMP v7

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