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Monthly Standardize Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Daily soil-water potential (MPa) and soil temperature (degree C) data for plots from SageSuccess. The SageSuccess Project is a joint effort between USGS, BLM, and FWS to understand how to establish big sagebrush and ultimately restore functioning sagebrush ecosystems. Improving the success of land management treatments to restore sagebrush-steppe is important for reducing the long-term impacts of rangeland fire on sage-grouse and over 350 other wildlife species that use these habitats.
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These data represent simulated soil temperature and moisture conditions for current climate, and for future climate represented by all available climate models at two time periods during the 21st century. These data were used to: 1) quantify the direction and magnitude of expected changes in several measures of soil temperature and soil moisture, including the key variables used to distinguish the regimes used in the R and R categories; 2) assess how these changes will impact the geographic distribution of soil temperature and moisture regimes; and 3) explore the implications for using R and R categories for estimating future ecosystem resilience and resistance.
Over the past four decades, annual area burned has increased significantly in California and across the western USA. This trend reflects a confluence of intersecting factors that affect wildfire regimes. It is correlated with increasing temperatures and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. Anthropogenic climate change is the driver behind much of this change, in addition to influencing other climate-related factors, such as compression of the winter wet season. These climatic trends and associated increases in fire activity are projected to continue into the future. Additionally, factors related to the suppression of the Indigenous use of fire, aggressive fire suppression and, in some cases, changes in logging practices...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Severe droughts cause widespread tree mortality and decreased growth in forests across the globe. Forest managers are seeking strategies to increase forest resistance (minimizing negative impacts during the drought) and resilience (maximizing recovery rates following drought). Limited experimental evidence suggests that forests with particular structural characteristics have greater capacity to resist change and or recover ecosystem function in the face of drought. However, the applicability of these results to practical forest conservation and management remains unclear. This project utilized an existing network of eight long-term, operational-scale, forest management experiments from Arizona to Maine to examine...
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These data were compiled using a new multivariate matching algorithm that transfers simulated soil moisture conditions (Bradford et al. 2020) from an original 10-km resolution to a 30-arcsec spatial resolution. Also, these data are a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2020) and USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2020). The objectives of our study were to (1) characterize geographic patterns in ecological drought under historical climate, (2) quantify the direction and magnitude of projected responses in ecological drought under climate change, (3) identify areas and drought metrics with projected changes that are robust across climate models for a representative set of...
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Drought and wildfire pose enormous threats to the integrity of natural resources that land managers are charged with protecting. Recent observations and modeling forecasts indicate that these stressors will likely produce catastrophic ecosystem transformations, or abrupt changes in the condition of plants, wildlife, and their habitats, in regions across the country in coming decades. In this project, researchers will bring together land managers who have experienced various degrees of ecosystem transformation (from not yet experiencing any changes to seeing large changes across the lands they manage) to share their perspectives on how to mitigate large-scale changes in land condition. The team will conduct surveys...
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During the November, 2012 SRLCC Steering Committee (SC) meeting in Phoenix, the SC formulated 10 questions about the character and composition of the landscape and emerging landscape-scale trends. The SC requested that data analysis be performed to answer these ten questions. The deliverable will be a “state of the knowledge of Southern Rockies landscape character and composition.” The results here were presented at the April 2014 SC meeting in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Categories: Data
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Covering 120 million acres across 14 western states and 3 Canadian provinces, sagebrush provides critical habitat for species such as pronghorn, mule deer, and sage-grouse – a species of conservation concern. The future of these and other species is closely tied to the future of sagebrush. Yet this important ecosystem has already been affected by fire, invasive species, land use conversion, and now, climate change. In the western U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing. However, there is currently a limited ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change on sagebrush. Current methods suffer from a range of weakness that limits the reliability of results. In fact, the current uncertainty...
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Biography John studies the impact of global change on terrestrial ecosystems. He focuses on understanding how changing climatic conditions and human land use practices influence terrestrial vegetation structure and composition as well as ecosystem processes, notably carbon and water cycling. His research interests tend toward large spatial and long temporal scales. Research Themes Sagebrush ecosystem response to climate and disturbance Sagebrush ecosystems are a major component of landscapes in the Western U.S. and provide vital habitat to sage grouse. However, sagebrush ecosystems have been dramatically impacted by disturbances in the past several decades. This work focuses on understanding the climatic and...
Abstract (from Journal of Applied Ecology): Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Project Staff and Affiliations John B. Bradford 1,2, Kyle A. Palmquist3, Rachel R. Renne1,4, Daniel R. Schlaepfer1,2,4, Stephen C. Torbit5, Kevin E. Doherty5, Thomas E. Remington6, Greg Watson5, William K. Lauenroth4 1US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, USA 2Center for Adaptable Western Landscapes, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA 3Department of Biological Sciences, Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA 4School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 5US Fish and Wildlife Service, Mountain-Prairie Region, Lakewood, CO, 80228, USA 6Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Boise, ID, 83706, USA Abstract & Purpose...
The future of dry forests around the world is uncertain given predictions that rising temperatures and enhanced aridity will increase drought-induced tree mortality. Using forest management and ecological restoration to reduce density and competition for water offers one of the few pathways that forests managers can potentially minimize drought-induced tree mortality. Competition for water during drought leads to elevated tree mortality in dense stands, although the influence of density on heat-induced stress and the durations of hot or dry conditions that most impact mortality remain unclear. Understanding how competition interacts with hot-drought stress is essential to recognize how, where and how much reducing...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
These data were compiled as a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2019), that employed a ecosystem water balance model to characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America. Also, these data are associated with a published USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2019). The objectives of our study were to (1) characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America, (2) evaluate the impact of these changes on estimation of resilience and resistance among a representative set of climate scenarios. These data represent geographic patterns...
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Droughts are becoming more frequent and severe and this trend is expected to continue in the coming century. Drought effects on natural resources include reduced water availability for plants and humans, as well as increased insect, disease, and vegetation mortality. Land managers need more information regarding how water availability may change and how drought will affect their sites in the future. We developed an online, interactive application that allows natural resource managers to access site-specific, observed historical and predicted future water availability. Users are able to set information that affects water balance, including soil texture and vegetation composition. With these inputs, as well as site-specific...
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These data were compiled to evaluate the magnitude and direction of change from historical conditions in climate metrics across the Southeastern Utah Group (SEUG) of National Parks. Objective(s) of our study were to quantify the magnitude and direction of change from historical conditions in climate metrics across SEUG parks at a meaningful scale for land managers and practitioners. These data represent the historical and projected future average temperatures for two emission scenarios and 12 global circulation models. Included are the annual average temperatures and the average temperatures for each season. These data were created by sampling representative locations across each National Park unit and simulating...
Tags: Arches National Park, Botany, Canyonlands National Park, Climatology, Colorado Plateau, All tags...
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Protecting the nation’s natural and cultural resources and landscapes is essential to sustaining our quality of life and economy. Native fish and wildlife species depend on healthy rivers, streams, wetlands, forests, grasslands and coastal areas in order to thrive. Managing these natural and cultural resources and landscapes, however, has become increasingly complex. Land use changes and impacts such as drought, wildfire, habitat fragmentation, contaminants, pollution, invasive species, disease and a rapidly changing climate can threaten human populations as well as native species and their habitats. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are public-private partnerships that recognize these challenges transcend...
Droughts are disproportionately impacting global dryland regions where ecosystem health and function are tightly coupled to moisture availability. Drought severity is commonly estimated using algorithms such as the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which can estimate climatic water balance impacts at various hydrologic scales by varying computational length. However, the performance of these metrics as indicators of soil moisture dynamics at ecologically relevant scales, across soil depths, and in consideration of broader scale ecohydrological processes, requires more attention. In this study, we tested components of climatic water balance, including SPEI and SPEI computation lengths, to...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Aim Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large-scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range-wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring. Location Western United States. Major taxa studied...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
These data were compiled as a part of a landscape conservation design effort for the sagebrush biome, and are the result of applying a spatially explicit model that assessed geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity and used these results to identify Core Sagebrush Areas (CSAs), Growth Opportunity Areas (GOAs), and Other Rangeland Areas (ORAs). Our overall objective in this study was to characterize geographic patterns in ecological integrity of sagebrush ecosystems. These data represent the estimated integrity of sagebrush ecosystems, estimated from a spatial model that assigns high integrity is areas with abundant big sagebrush and perennial grass/forb cover and with minimal annual grass/forb cover,...
Tags: Arizona, Botany, California, Climatology, Colorado, All tags...


map background search result map search result map Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data for drylands of western U.S. and Canada Ecological Drought for Sagebrush Seedings in the Great Basin Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire Climate and drought adaptation: historical and projected future exposure metrics for Southeastern Utah Group National Parks High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada Biome-wide sagebrush core habitat and growth areas estimated from a threat-based conservation design Climate and drought adaptation: historical and projected future exposure metrics for Southeastern Utah Group National Parks Ecological Drought for Sagebrush Seedings in the Great Basin Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Biome-wide sagebrush core habitat and growth areas estimated from a threat-based conservation design Historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data for drylands of western U.S. and Canada High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada