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Aim Climate change is expected to result in the tropicalization of coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as warming winters allow tropical mangrove forests to expand their distribution poleward at the expense of temperate salt marshes. Data limitations near mangrove range limits have hindered understanding of the effects of winter temperature extremes on mangrove distribution and structure. Here, we investigated the influence of extreme freeze events on the abundance, height and coverage of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans ) near their northern range limit in Louisiana. Location Coastal Louisiana, USA. Methods We quantified the relationships between the frequency of extreme freeze events and A. germinans...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from Springer): Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Barrier islands provide important ecosystem services, including storm protection and erosion control to the mainland, habitat for fish and wildlife, and tourism (Barbier and others, 2011; Feagin and others, 2010). These islands tend to be dynamic due to their location along the estuarine-marine interface. Besides gradual changes caused by constant forces, such as currents and tides, barrier islands face numerous threats including hurricanes, accelerated sea-level rise, oil spills, and anthropogenic impacts (Pilkey and Cooper, 2014). These threats are likely to influence the future of barrier islands in the latter part of the 21st century, especially as climate-related threats to coastal areas are expected to increase...
Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological impacts of mangrove migration are diverse, ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial-nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea-level rise and drought;...
Abstract (from Ecosystems): Increases in temperature are expected to facilitate encroachment of tropical mangrove forests into temperate salt marshes, yet the effects on ecosystem services are understudied. Our work was conducted along a mangrove expansion front in Louisiana (USA), an area where coastal wetlands are in rapid decline due to compounding factors, including reduced sediment supply, rising sea level, and subsidence. Marsh and mangrove ecosystems are each known for their ability to adjust to sea-level rise and support numerous ecosystem services, but there are some differences in the societal benefits they provide. Here, we compare carbon and nitrogen stocks and relate these findings to the expected effects...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
This dataset includes elevation-based probability and depth statistics for estimating inundation under various sea-level rise and high tide flooding scenarios in and around the National Park Service’s Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve. These datasets were developed using 1-m digital elevation model (DEM) from 2018 with reduced elevation error in coastal wetlands (McHenry and others, 2023). This data release includes results from analyses of two local sea-level rise scenarios for two-time steps — the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate-High for 2050 and 2100 from Sweet and others (2022). Additionally, this data release includes maps of inundation probability under the minor, moderate, and major high tide flooding...
To quantify the potential for landward migration at the estuary level, we developed a geospatial dataset for the conterminous United States (CONUS) that identifies the boundaries for estuarine drainage areas. Nine estuarine drainage areas in south Florida were delineated using data developed by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD 2018). For the rest of CONUS, we used information contained within the National Fish Habitat Action Plan (NFHAP) - Coastal Spatial Framework (CSF) (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science 2021). The original NFHAP-CSF data included 612 drainage areas, which were too many for our purposes. Therefore, we merged smaller drainage areas with larger, adjacent drainage areas...
We quantified the potential area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and freshwater wetlands due to sea-level rise (SLR) at the estuary scale for 166 estuarine drainage areas and at the state scale for 22 coastal states and District of Columbia. We used 2016 Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) data in combination with the future wetland migration data under the 1.5 m global SLR scenario to evaluate the potential for wetland migration into all the individual C-CAP classes and into the following six land cover categories: (1) freshwater forest (wetland); (2) freshwater marsh (wetland); (3) terrestrial forest (upland); (4) terrestrial grassland (upland); (5) agricultural croplands (upland);...
In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
Categories: Data;
Types: ArcGIS REST Map Service,
ArcGIS Service Definition,
Downloadable,
Map Service;
Tags: Northern Gulf of Mexico,
adaptation,
adaptation,
climate change,
climate change,
This dataset includes elevation-based probability and depth statistics for estimating inundation under various sea-level rise and high tide flooding scenarios in and around the National Park Service’s San Juan National Historic Site. These datasets were developed using 1-m digital elevation model (DEM) from the 3D Elevation program. This data release includes results from analyses of two local sea-level rise scenarios for two-time steps — the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate-High for 2050 and 2100 from Sweet and others (2022). Additionally, this data release includes maps of inundation probability under the minor, moderate, and major high tide flooding thresholds defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric...
MethodsStudy area: Our initial study area included the entire globe. We began with a seamless grid of cells with a resolution of 0.5 degrees (i.e., ~50 km at the equator). Next, we created polylines representing coastlines using SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) v4.1 global digital elevation model data at a resolution of 250 m (Reuter et al. 2007). We used these coastline polylines to identify and retain cells that intersected the coast. We excluded 192,227 cells that did not intersect the coast. To avoid cells with minimal potential coastal wetland habitat, we used the coastline data to remove an additional 1,056 coastal cells that contained less than or equal to 5% coverage of land. We also removed 176...
Categories: Data;
Types: Citation,
Downloadable,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
Shapefile;
Tags: Climate change,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
abundance,
climate gradients,
climatic drivers,
This dataset includes elevation-based probability and depth statistics for estimating inundation under various sea-level rise and high tide flooding scenarios in and around the National Park Service’s De Soto National Memorial. These datasets were developed using 1-m digital elevation model (DEM) from the 3D Elevation program. This data release includes results from analyses of two local sea-level rise scenarios for two-time steps — the Intermediate-Low and Intermediate-High for 2050 and 2100 from Sweet and others (2022). Additionally, this data release includes maps of inundation probability under the minor, moderate, and major high tide flooding thresholds defined by the National oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...
We characterized coastal wetland responses to flooding stress by measuring vegetation cover, wetland elevation and water elevation in healthy and degrading wetlands dominated by Spartina patens. Wetland elevation was measured using real-time kinematic survey methods. Vegetation cover was determined by visual estimation methods, and water elevation was measured using in situ continuous recorders. In addition to these local-scale responses, we also measured landscape-scale patterns of land and water aggregation or fragmentation using remotely sensed data (Jones et al., 2018). Associated products: Jones, W.R., Hartley, S.B., Stagg, C.L., and Osland, M.J. 2018. Land-water classification for selected sites in McFaddin...
Categories: Data;
Tags: Grand Chenier,
Land Use Change,
Texas,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
aggregation,
Coastal wetlands provide many valuable benefits to people and wildlife, including critical habitat, improved water quality, reduced flooding impacts, and protected coastlines. However, in the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. The future of coastal wetlands is uncertain, challenging coastal environmental managers to develop conservation strategies that will increase the resilience of these valuable ecosystems to change and preserve the benefits they provide. One strategy for preparing for the effects of sea-level rise is to ensure that there is space available for coastal wetlands to migrate inland. In a recent study,...
Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Coastal wetland loss is a serious concern along the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially in Texas and Louisiana where rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise are among the highest in the world, extreme storms are becoming more frequent, and flooding events are intensifying. Because coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of Mexico provide numerous ecosystem services, including providing critical habitat for species of concern such as the whooping crane and the mottled duck, federal, state, and local agencies have made significant efforts to restore habitats to increase their resilience to sea-level rise and extreme storm events. One way to help wetlands adapt to sea-level rise and extreme flooding events...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2023,
CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Projects by Region,
Abstract (from http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0099604): Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Grasslands and Plains,
Landscapes,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southeast CASC,
This project represents a collaboration between individuals at the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to produce customized two-pager information sheets for 54 federal coastal refuges, parks, and reserves across the northern Gulf of Mexico (i.e., sea-level rise sensitive federally-managed lands within Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida). The project team included Bogdan Chivoiu (Cherokee Nation Technologies at USGS), Michael Osland (USGS), Renee Collini (Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative), Sara Martin (Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative),...
Abstract (from Global Change Biology): Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influence whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function....
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from SpringerLink): Foundation plant species play a critical role in coastal wetlands, often modifying abiotic conditions that are too stressful for most organisms and providing the primary habitat features that support entire ecological communities. Here, we consider the influence of climatic drivers on the distribution of foundation plant species within coastal wetlands of the conterminous USA. Using region-level syntheses, we identified 24 dominant foundation plant species within 12 biogeographic regions, and we categorized species and biogeographic regions into four groups: graminoids, mangroves, succulents, and unvegetated. Literature searches were used to characterize the level of research directed...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Grasslands and Plains,
Landscapes,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southeast CASC,
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