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Pollinator restoration requires information about what species to plant and when to plant them to ensure food sources are available throughout the periods when pollinators are active. Changes in climate, including earlier spring warming and warmer fall temperatures, may cause flowering to become out of sync with pollinator activity. When restoring land to support pollinators, managers are challenged to select a mix of species that support pollinators of concern throughout their periods of activity. Existing planting tools have several disadvantages such as, their usability is location specific, they are virtually non-existent for the South Central region, and they do not often account for future changes in plant...
Abstract (from Wiley): This study supports efforts directed toward research on large-scale atmospheric patterns and on the variability of tornado outbreaks. Specifically, we applied rotated principal component analysis to identify synoptic-scale patterns of 500-hPa geopotential height associated with tornado outbreaks in the United States. We created a database of historic tornado outbreaks using kernel density estimation on events composed of at least seven tornadoes of magnitude (E)F2 or higher (major tornado outbreaks) that occurred in May from 1950 to 2019 (91 events). Results of the analysis show that the first three principal components explained the majority, that is, 74% of the total variation. Based on...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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In the Western U.S., approximately 65% of the water supply comes from forested regions with most of the water that feeds local rivers coming from snowmelt that originates in mountain forests. The Rio Grande headwaters (I.e. the primary water generating region of the Rio Grande river) is experiencing large changes to the landscape primarily from forest fires and bark beetle infestations. Already, 85% of the coniferous forests in this region have been affected by the bark beetle, and projections indicate greater changes will occur as temperatures increase. In this area, most of the precipitation falls as snow in the winter, reaches a maximum depth in the late spring, and melts away due to warmer temperatures by early...
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Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize the destruction of ecological communities, threats of future flooding, and extensive damages by lessening the intensity of future wildfires. Although safe burning practices can largely minimize the risks, prescribed burns may bring some degree of concern among practitioners. The real and perceived risks may include bodily...
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Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion, and water quality issues. These events can be costly for society. In response, many land managers are using forest thinning and prescribed burning practices to reduce disturbance impacts, especially those that are caused by high-severity wildfire. In contrast to the wealth of research on the advantages of forest thinning...
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has several Communities of Practice (CoPs) focused on resource manager needs across the region (e.g. understanding at-risk species and ecosystems, building resilient coastal ecosystems, extreme weather and climate change, etc.). Each CoP has expertise in the subject matter and has been working on projects that are relevant to the resource community, including conducting literature reviews and small-scale pilot projects. The current research project will leverage the expertise of the existing CoPs to enhance the content available through the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) as identified through the partnership between the South Central...
Future climate projections illuminate our understanding of the climate system and generate data products often used in climate impact assessments. Statistical downscaling (SD) is commonly used to address biases in global climate models (GCM) and to translate large‐scale projected changes to the higher spatial resolutions desired for regional and local scale studies. However, downscaled climate projections are sensitive to method configuration and input data source choices made during the downscaling process that can affect a projection's ultimate suitability for particular impact assessments. Quantifying how changes in inputs or parameters affect SD‐generated projections of precipitation is critical for improving...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has worked diligently to build new partnerships between scientists and resource managers to help address the science needs and questions of their stakeholders through actionable science. However, the growth of their stakeholder base and the loss of the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives has led to unmet demand for climate “extension services” from stakeholders. This project plans to establish a new scientist position at the South Central CASC focused on climate extension services and research coordination to help discover needed science solutions and to facilitate connections between the researcher and practitioner communities. The Climate Extension...
Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are fundamental components of carbonate systems that control pH and buffering capacity of a water body. Three coastal marshes with contrasting salinities in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA, were sampled five times between December 2018 and October 2019 to understand seasonal changes in porewater carbonate chemistry and its impact on surrounding water bodies. Porewater DIC and TA increased with depth irrespective of marsh type and ranged from 4.47 to 31.61 mmol/kg and from 1.78 to 28.56 mmol/kg, respectively. The salt marsh had higher porewater DIC and TA compared to the lower salinity intermediate and brackish marshes, probably due to sulfate reduction in...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Advancements in wildfire danger modeling may increase wildfire preparedness, and therefore decrease loss of life, property, and habitat due to wildfire. Recent work by our team has shown wildfire danger models may be improved by incorporating soil moisture information. Still, soil moisture—an important determinant of wildfire risk—is not currently used for wildfire danger assessments because adequate soil moisture information has historically been unavailable. Our project addressed this gap by developing and disseminating improved soil moisture estimates and demonstrating their relevance to wildfire danger assessments. Our objectives were to (1) develop an effective model of soil moisture for the Red River and Rio...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The Rio Grande cutthroat trout is New Mexico’s state fish; but habitat loss and non-native trout invasions threaten the persistence of this fish throughout the remaining 12% of its historic range. Stakeholders, including state agencies, federal agencies, Tribal nations, Pueblos, and private groups are particularly concerned about the impact that non-native brown trout have on native cutthroat trout. This project will be the first to demonstrate how non-native brown trout negatively affect Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations. The project has two primary objectives: 1) compare the health and characteristics of native Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout in areas both with and without invasive brown trout in cold and warm...
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Water management in the middle portion of the Rio Grande Basin (between Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico and Presidio, Texas) is challenging because water demand has continued to increase over time despite limited river water and dropping groundwater levels. While urban and agricultural users can cope with frequent droughts by using a combination of river water and pumping groundwater, little to no water reaches living river ecosystems in this region. Improving this situation requires a good understanding of river water and groundwater availability, now and in the future, as well as advantages and disadvantages of water management options to sustain these ecosystems. In particular, there is a need to determine...
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The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made...
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The Ogallala Aquifer lies beneath 111 million acres of land in Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. The aquifer provides water for approximately 1.9 million people and has been instrumental in the development of the robust agriculture economy of the Great Plains region. It is also vitally important to the ecology of the region, serving as a critical source of groundwater and sustaining creeks and streams that would otherwise run dry during periods of water scarcity. However, the various social, economic, and ecological challenges of managing this aquifer are expected to increase with climate change as hotter, drier summers exacerbate already unsustainable water demands....
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Prairies were once widespread across North America, but are now one of the most endangered and least protected ecosystems in the world. Agriculture and residential development have reduced once extensive prairies into a patchwork of remnant prairies and “surrogate” grasslands (e.g., hayfields, planted pastures). Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are also particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate and associated changes in drought and extreme weather. The Central Flyway is a vast bird migration route that comprises more than half of the continental U.S., and extends from Central America to Canada, and harbors the greatest diversity of grassland birds in North America. Throughout this...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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The Science Issue and Relevance: Coastal wetlands are some of the most productive and valuable habitats in the world. Louisiana contains 40% of the United States’ coastal wetlands, which provide critical habitat for waterfowl and fisheries, as well as many other benefits, such as storm surge protection for coastal communities. In terms of ecosystem services, biological resource production, and infrastructure investments, the value of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands exceeds $100 billion. Thus, stakeholders are gravely concerned about sea-level rise which is causing coastal marsh habitat to convert to open water and resulting in the highest rates of wetland loss in the world, with nearly 1.2 million acres lost since...
Led by university consortium institutions of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (South Central CASC), this project builds on the successes of similar workshops in 2014, 2016, and 2018 to bring together a cohort of graduate students, post-docs, and early-career environmental professionals within the South Central CASC region and mentor this cohort to become the next generation of USGS leaders and partners. The objectives of the workshop were to: (1) develop the early-career participants’ knowledge, leadership skills, and interdisciplinary collaboration; (2) introduce participants to the goals, structure, and unique research-related challenges of the South Central CASC, its place within the U.S. Department...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Developing novel solutions to complex problems demands innovative approaches that are inclusive of diverse perspectives from both scientific experts and stakeholders. Across networked communities, like the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC), it can sometimes be challenging to identify and build collaborations among researchers from different disciplines. Particularly at times like the present, during a global pandemic and recovery from its impact, a means to support a diverse, integrated and engaged network is essential for producing innovative outcomes for complex problems relevant to our changing climate. One method to foster more engaged networks is through the use of Exaptive’s Cognitive...
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Climate change has been, is, and will continue to affect Indigenous peoples across the south-central United States, amplifying a need to plan for and adapt to these changes before the impacts become catastrophic. Since June 2012, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has partnered with Tribes across Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas to conduct research, education, and outreach related to climate change, adaptation, and resilience; however, much more work is needed to prepare for climate change impacts on Indigenous lands, waters, and people. In this project, the research team will focus on strengthening South Central CASC partnerships with the Tribes and Pueblos in the South Central...
map background search result map search result map Susceptibility of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout to Displacement by Non-Native Brown Trout and Implications for Future Management Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate Organizing and Synthesizing Ogallala Aquifer Data to Facilitate Research and Resource Management Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience Climate Extension Services for the South Central U.S. Optimizing Data and Discovery Knowledge Transfer Across Researchers and Stakeholders Using Innovative Technology (“Cognitive Cities”) Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Estimating the Future Effects of Forest Disturbance on Snow Water Resources in a Changing Environment Time to Restore: Using a Community Based Approach to Identify Key Plant Species for Pollinator Restoration Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience for Tribes and Pueblos in OK, TX, NM, and LA The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Susceptibility of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout to Displacement by Non-Native Brown Trout and Implications for Future Management Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Climate Extension Services for the South Central U.S. Optimizing Data and Discovery Knowledge Transfer Across Researchers and Stakeholders Using Innovative Technology (“Cognitive Cities”) Time to Restore: Using a Community Based Approach to Identify Key Plant Species for Pollinator Restoration Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience for Tribes and Pueblos in OK, TX, NM, and LA Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States Organizing and Synthesizing Ogallala Aquifer Data to Facilitate Research and Resource Management Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience