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Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the forecasting scenarios of land-use change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit data sets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United...
Riverine exports of organic and inorganic carbon (OC, IC) to oceans are intricately linked to processes occurring on land. Across high latitudes, thawing permafrost, alteration of hydrologic flow paths, and changes in vegetation may all affect this flux, with subsequent implications for regional and global carbon (C) budgets. Using a unique, multi-decadal dataset of continuous discharge coupled with water chemistry measurements for the Mackenzie River, we show major increases in dissolved OC (DOC) and IC (as alkalinity) fluxes since the early 1970s, for a watershed that covers 1.8 M km2 of northwestern Canada, and provides substantial inputs of freshwater and biogeochemical constituents to the Arctic Ocean. Over...
Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage plays a major role in the global carbon cycle and is affected by many factors including land use/management changes (e.g., biofuel production-oriented changes). However, the contributions of various factors to SOC changes are not well understood and quantified. This study was designed to investigate the impacts of changing farming practices, initial SOC levels, and biological enhancement of grain production on SOC dynamics and to attribute the relative contributions of major driving forces (CO2 enrichment and farming practices) using a fractional factorial modeling design. The case study at a crop site in Iowa in the United States demonstrated that the traditional corn-soybean (CS)...
Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit...
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This release contains Active Layer Thickness (ALT) and Organic Layer Thickness (OLT) measurements measured along transects in Alaska, 2015. Site condition information in terms of wildfire burns is also included.
Terrestrial carbon sequestration potential is widely considered as a realistic option for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, this potential may be threatened by global changes including climate, land use, and management changes such as increased corn stover harvesting for rising production of cellulosic biofuel. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional or global scale. This study simulated the corn production and spatiotemporal changes of SOC in the U.S. Temperate Prairies, which covers over one-third of the U.S. corn acreage, using a biogeochemical model with multiple climate and land-use change projections. The corn production (either grain yield...
Cultivated lands in the U.S. Midwest have been affected by soil erosion, causing soil organic carbon (SOC) redistribution in the landscape and other environmental and agricultural problems. The importance of SOC redistribution on soil productivity and crop yield, however, is still uncertain. In this study, we used a model framework, which includes the Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition (USPED) and the Tillage Erosion Prediction (TEP) models, to understand the soil and SOC redistribution caused by water and tillage erosion in two agricultural fields in the U.S. Midwest. This model framework was evaluated for different digital elevation model (DEM) spatial resolutions (10-m, 24-m, 30-m, and 56-m) and topographic...
Summary Biomass carbon includes carbon stored in above- and below-ground live plant components (such as leaf, branch, stem and root) as well as in standing and down dead woody debris, and fine litter. For the western United States, total live and dead biomass carbon during the baseline period (2001–2005) was estimated to be between 5048-5927 Tg C and 1867-4178 Tg C, respectively, and is predicted to increase to 5806-7373 Tg C and 2192-4462 Tg C, respectively, in 2050. Methods The temporal and spatial dynamics of biomass carbon were estimated using the USGS General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), which involved three models (Paint-By-Number (PBN) model, CENTURY, and EDCM), under three land use and...
Assessment The suite of data products and visualization tools presented here are developed as part of a national ecosystem assessment conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) flux assessment was mandated by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), which directed the U.S. Department of the Interior to conduct a national assessment to quantify: The amount of carbon stored in ecosystems The capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon The rate of GHG fluxes in and out of the ecosystems The assessment focused on changes in carbon stocks and fluxes in all the major ecosystems, and on the major natural and anthropogenic processes that control carbon...
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Fire and hydrology can be significant drivers of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to disturbance. New methods are needed to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation. This project uses remote sensing, geophysical, and other field-based observations to reveal details of both near-surface (<1 m) and deeper (>1 m) permafrost characteristics over multiple scales. This LandCarbon project currently supports the NASA ABoVE project, 'Vulnerability of inland waters and the aquatic...
In forests, total belowground carbon (C) flux (TBCF) is a large component of the C budget and represents a critical pathway for delivery of plant C to soil. Reducing uncertainty around regional estimates of forest C cycling may be aided by incorporating knowledge of controls over soil respiration and TBCF. Photosynthesis, and presumably TBCF, declines with advancing tree size and age, and photosynthesis increases yet C partitioning to TBCF decreases in response to high soil fertility. We hypothesized that these causal relationships would result in predictable patterns of TBCF, and partitioning of C to TBCF, with natural variability in leaf area index (LAI), soil nitrogen (N), and tree height in subalpine forests...
LandCarbon publications
Quantitative assessment of forest burn severity and determination of its spatial variation are important for post-fire forest restoration and forest fire management. In this paper, we assessed forest burn severity using pre- and post-fire Landsat TM/ETM+ data and field-surveyed data and explored the spatial variation in burn severity and its influencing factors. Our results showed a relatively strong linear relationship between normalized burn ratio (NBR) and composite burn index (CBI) (R2 = 0.63), suggesting that NBR was the best spectral index and could be used to assess forest burn severity in Heilongjiang Province. The forest burn severity showed obvious spatial variation. The majority of heavily burned areas...
A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and...
Quantification of aboveground biomass (AGB) in Alaska’s boreal forest is essential to the accurate evaluation of terrestrial carbon stocks and dynamics in northern high-latitude ecosystems. Our goal was to map AGB at 30 m resolution for the boreal forest in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska using Landsat data and ground measurements. We acquired Landsat images to generate a 3-year (2008–2010) composite of top-of-atmosphere reflectance for six bands as well as the brightness temperature (BT). We constructed a multiple regression model using field-observed AGB and Landsat-derived reflectance, BT, and vegetation indices. A basin-wide boreal forest AGB map at 30 m resolution was generated by applying the regression model...
Dynamic tidal export of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the coastal ocean from highly productive intertidal marshes and its effects on seawater carbonate chemistry are thoroughly evaluated. The study uses a comprehensive approach by combining tidal water sampling of CO2parameters across seasons, continuous in situ measurements of biogeochemically-relevant parameters and water fluxes, with high-resolution modeling in an intertidal salt marsh of the U.S. northeast region. Salt marshes can acidify and alkalize tidal water by injecting CO2 (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). DIC and TA generation may also be decoupled due to differential effects of marsh aerobic and anaerobic respiration on DIC and TA. As marsh DIC...
We develop a new framework, based on Landsat time series data and forest inventories, to estimate the carbon in roundwood harvested from forest management activities, which will enter the HWP pool and remain stored in end uses and landfills. The approach keeps the distinction between the carbon from different types of roundwood sources, which allows for better integration with the regional HWP carbon lifetime information. We show that existing methods that are based on large scale regional/national values and linear interpolation of data gaps, can provide only very approximate carbon estimates. The model was applied to a US state using county level data, but can also suit different areas as long as sufficient harvest...
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