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To understand the impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity on conifer forests, we studied how wildfire and post-fire seasonal climate conditions influence western larch (Larix occidentalis) regeneration across its range in the northwestern US. We destructively sampled 1651 seedlings from 57 sites across 32 fires that burned at moderate or high severity between 2000 and 2015; sites were within 100 m of reproductively mature western larch. Using dendrochronological methods, we estimated germination years of seedlings to calculate annual recruitment rates. We used boosted regression trees to model the annual probability of recruitment as a function of (i) ‘wildfire-related factors’ including distance to seed...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The volume of water reaching reservoirs during the April-July growing season is critical to meeting water demands for agriculture and other human demands. However, our ability to forecast seasonal water supplies is hindered by extreme and changing snowpack. In this research, we investigate how current water supply forecasts will be impacted by a future with less and earlier snowmelt and what can be done to improve those forecasts. Our analysis over 30+ years shows that statistical regression models are generally more skillful than more complex, conceptual models. However, our results suggest that statistical models are less skillful in low snowpack (i.e. snow drought) years than the conceptual models. Results show...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation