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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > South Central CASC > FY 2016 Projects ( Show direct descendants )

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Conservative agricultural management strategies pursue long-term ecological benefits through practices such as no-tillage, cover crop, and inherent soil properties management. Farmers, however, are often hesitant to adopt such practices due to lack of experience, initial expense, and concern for low crop productivity. Overcoming this barrier requires novel approaches, such as effectively managing the soil microbiome to attain high productivity at a low cost, especially in a semi-arid region. To study the potential of conservation agriculture, we investigated components of soil bacterial community and rhizobial diversity in long-term experimental cotton fields divided into conventional tillage monoculture systems...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Future climate projections illuminate our understanding of the climate system and generate data products often used in climate impact assessments. Statistical downscaling (SD) is commonly used to address biases in global climate models (GCM) and to translate large‐scale projected changes to the higher spatial resolutions desired for regional and local scale studies. However, downscaled climate projections are sensitive to method configuration and input data source choices made during the downscaling process that can affect a projection's ultimate suitability for particular impact assessments. Quantifying how changes in inputs or parameters affect SD‐generated projections of precipitation is critical for improving...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Wiley Online Library) A method is developed for choosing 21st Century streamflow projections among widely varying results from a large ensemble of climate model-driven simulations. We quantify observed trends in climate–streamflow relationships in the Rio Grande headwaters, which has experienced warming temperature and declining snowpack since the mid-20th Century. Prominent trends in the snowmelt runoff season are used to assess corresponding statistics in downscaled global climate model projections. We define “Observationally Consistent (OC)” simulations as those that reproduce historical changes to linear statistics of diminished snowpack–streamflow coupling in the headwaters and an associated...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative uses temporally dense Landsat data and time series analyses to characterize landscape change in the United States from 1985 to present. LCMAP will be used to explain how past, present, and future landscape change affects society and natural systems. Here, we describe a modeling framework for producing high-resolution (spatial and thematic) landscape projections at a national scale, using a unique parcel-based modeling framework. The methodology was tested by modeling 11 land use scenarios and 3 climate realizations for the U.S. Great Plains. Results demonstrate 1) an ability to balance competing land-use demands...
While we collect and monitor soil temperatures within natural and managed ecosystems across the Southern High Plains (SHP), we do not have a clear understanding of how soil temperature parameters are linked to ecosystem services, soil health and sustainability under increasing climate variability and increasing drought severity. Understanding how management decisions will either create positive or negative feedback loops with respect to soil temperature dynamics may be critical for developing sound conservation and soil management practices. As much of the SHP is privately owned and is managed either under intensive row cropping systems, any drought mitigation efforts and practices that influence and promote soil...
Seasonal streamflow forecast bias, changes in climate, snowpack, and land cover, and the effects of these changes on relations between basin‐wide snowpack, SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) station snowpack, and seasonal streamflow were evaluated in the headwaters of the Rio Grande, Colorado. Results indicate that shifts in the seasonality of precipitation and changing climatology are consistent with periods of overprediction and underprediction in streamflow forecasts. Multiple linear regression of SNOTEL data, postcedent precipitation, and land‐cover changes explained 2%–18% more variability in streamflow prediction than using SNOTEL station data alone. Simulated basin‐wide snowpack from a physically based model had significant...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1752-1688.12640): Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in...
Declining snowpack is one of most easily visible features of a warming climate in mountainous areas of western North America, and the further decline of snowpack is a robust projection from climate models simulating a warmer future climate. Major rivers in western North America are largely fed by snowpack, but the physical relationship between temperature change and snowmelt runoff is complicated, and model projections of future streamflow in western rivers vary widely. The goal of this project was to assess the changing relationship between snowpack and streamflow in the headwaters basin of the Rio Grande, using both observed data and climate model simulations. First, we assessed how well measured snowpack served...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landward in response to accelerated sea-level rise. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization extent, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate wetland migration. The landward movement of wetlands requires suitable conditions, such as a gradual slope and land free of urban development. Urban barriers can constrain migration and result in wetland loss (coastal squeeze). For future-focused conservation planning purposes, there is a pressing need to quantify and compare the potential for wetland landward movement and coastal squeeze. For 41 estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico (i.e., the USA gulf coast), we quantified and compared...
Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting the streamflow volume derived from snow accumulation in ways consistent with climate model-based projections of 21st century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the upper Rio Grande (URG) near its headwaters in southern Colorado are assessed for water years 1958-2015. Trends in discharge are examined together with variations in snow water equivalent and surface climate variables. Results indicate that temperatures in the basin have increased significantly primarily in the winter and spring seasons, April 1 snow water equivalent has decreased by approximately...
In recent years, climate projections have been used to research the climate system as well as provide guidance for climate adaptation decisions and impact assessments. There are numerous methods to produce the locally relevant climate projections for use in impact assessments. Since there are no standard methods to derive locally relevant projections, one must consider multiple approaches. In order to provide additional clarity regarding the use of available climate projections, this project assessed how the inputs that define the projections (e.g., historical climate data, downscaling method, etc.) contribute to the variability among different climate projections for temperature and precipitation variables. This...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: South Central CASC


    map background search result map search result map Landward migration of tidal saline wetlands with sea-level rise and urbanization: a comparison of northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries Landward migration of tidal saline wetlands with sea-level rise and urbanization: a comparison of northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries