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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Midwest CASC > FY 2020 Projects ( Show direct descendants )

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Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Understanding age and growth are important for fisheries science and management; however, age data are not routinely collected for many populations. We propose and test a method of borrowing age–length data across increasingly broader spatiotemporal levels to create a hierarchical age–length key (HALK). We assessed this method by comparing growth and mortality metrics to those estimated from lake–year age–length keys ages using seven common freshwater fish species across the upper Midwestern United States. Levels used for data borrowing began most specifically by borrowing within lake across time and increased in breadth to include data within the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watershed, HUC8 watershed, Level III...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Our aim was to describe shifts in autumn and winter harvest distributions of three species of dabbling ducks (blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) in the Central and Mississippi flyways of North America during 1960–2019. We measured shifts in band recovery distributions corrected for changes in hunting season dates and zones by using kernel density estimators to calculate 10 distributional metrics. We then assessed interannual and intraspecific variation by comparing species-specific changes in distributional metrics for 4 months (October–January) and three geographically based subpopulations. During 1960–2019, band recovery distributions shifted west-...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Walleye (Sander vitreus) and Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) are culturally, economically, and ecologically significant fish species in North America that are affected by drivers of global change. Here, we review and synthesize the published literature documenting the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch. We focus on four drivers: climate (including temperature and precipitation), aquatic invasive species, land use and nutrient loading, and water clarity. We identified 1232 tests from 370 papers, split evenly between Walleye (N=613) and Yellow Perch (N=620). Climate was the most frequently studied driver (N=572) and growth/condition was the most frequently studied response (N=297). The most commonly...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Active management for promoting oaks (Quercus spp.) and restraining maples (Acer spp.) is mostly conducted in public forests (e.g., national forests [NF] and state forests [SF]) because of oaks' ecological and economic importance. Studies have shown that current management efforts have limited success, meanwhile, oak-dominant forests continue to shift in composition and structure to shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive mesophytic species (e.g., red maple A. rubrum). It remains to be evaluated whether current management can achieve its objectives in public forests and at regional scales. In this study, we investigated the long-term outcomes of business-as-usual (BAU) and alternative management (AltMgt) scenarios in a large,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The dataset described here includes estimates of historical (1980–2020) daily surface water temperature, lake metadata, and daily weather conditions for lakes bigger than 4 ha in the conterminous United States (n = 185,549), and also in situ temperature observations for a subset of lakes (n = 12,227). Estimates were generated using a long short-term memory deep learning model and compared to existing process-based and linear regression models. Model training was optimized for prediction on unmonitored lakes through cross-validation that held out lakes to assess generalizability and estimate error. On the held-out lakes with in situ observations, median lake-specific error was 1.24°C, and the overall root mean squared...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Aquatic invasive species (AIS) present major ecological and economic challenges globally, endangering ecosystems and human livelihoods. Managers and policy makers thus need tools to predict invasion risk and prioritize species and areas of concern, and they often use native range climate matching to determine whether a species could persist in a new location. However, climate matching for AIS often relies on air temperature rather than water temperature due to a lack of global water temperature data layers, and predictive power of models is seldom evaluated. We developed 12 global lake (water) temperature-derived “BioLake” bioclimatic layers for distribution modeling of aquatic species and compared “climatch” climate...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Preserving the abundance and stocking of oaks (Quercus spp.) has become increasingly challenging in temperate hardwood forests of the eastern US in recent decades due to a remarkable shift in dominance to mesophytic species (e.g., red maple Acer rubrum). Studies have shown that efforts to sustain oaks while restraining maples yield limited success. Given that a significant portion of forestlands in the eastern U.S. are privately owned, it is critical to assess whether current forest management on cross-ownership forests can achieve those objectives. However, such assessments are rare. In this study, we employed a landscape modeling approach to investigate the long-term outcomes (i.e., 150-year forest composition...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation