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Forests in the Eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the Eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees C. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous...
Abstract (from British Ecological Society): Tree harvest and climate change can interact to have synergistic effects on tree species distribution changes. However, few studies have investigated the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distributions. We assessed the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on the distribution of 29 dominant tree species at 270 m resolution in the southern United States, while accounting for species demography, competition, urban growth and natural fire. We simulated tree species distribution changes to year 2100 using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO), ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) and urban growth model (SLEUTH). The...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
Abstract (from Forests): Fire is a multi-scale process that is an important component in determining ecosystem age structures and successional trajectories across forested landscapes. In order to address questions regarding fire effects over large spatial scales and long temporal scales researchers often employ forest landscape models which can model fire as a spatially explicit disturbance. Within forest landscape models site-level fire effects are often simplified to the species, functional type, or cohort level due to time or computational resource limitations. In this study we used a subset of publicly available U.S. Forest Service forest inventory data (FIA) to estimate short-term fire effects on tree densities...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
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The Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) develops scientific information and tools to help managers address climate variability and climate change related to impacts on land, water, fish and wildlife, nearshore, coastal and cultural heritage resources. The NE CASC is hosted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMASS) with consortium partners College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Cornell University, Michigan State University, University of Missouri, University of Vermont, University of Wisconsin, Woodwell Climate Research Center and the United States Forest Service Northern Research Station. The NE CASC consortium addresses regional science priorities of the Department of the...
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