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This website provides an application for exploring modeling results from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project titled Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. The purpose of this project was to improve understanding of the factors that control inundation patterns in vernal pools of the northeastern United States, so as to identify pools that might function as hydrologic refugia under climate change.
Climate change is affecting species and ecosystems across the Northeast and Midwest U.S. Natural resource managers looking to maintain ecological function and species persistence have requested information to improve resource management in the face of climate change. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. An interdisciplinary team worked to understand the mechanisms that are driving...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Mammals,
Northeast CASC,
This report provides an overview of the state of the science for climate impacts and adaptation options across the NEAFWA region and for Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and associated habitats.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
This dataset details individual species and natural habitat vulnerability rankings, including contextual study-specific information. This data was collected from original publications found through a literature search. Information is cumulative to include climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) results summarized in Staudinger et al. (2015) and published as of December 2023.
Categories: Data;
Tags: CCVA,
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment,
Climatology,
Connecticut,
Delaware,
Abstract (from Biological Invasions): Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
On November 8, 2019, the first meeting of the Southwest Climate Change Refugia Research Coalition was held in Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, under funding from the Southwest and Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASCs). The objective of this workshop was to bring together natural resource managers and researchers to move forward on climate change adaptation and begin to build a climate change refugia conservation strategy for the Sierra Nevada. Goals were to identify opportunities to apply existing data and modeling results to ongoing local conservation efforts in order to optimize limited resources.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
This Interagency Agreement brings together researchers from the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and their partners to examine the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, and habitats in the northeastern U.S., focused especially on northern and montane species. As climate change causes substantial effects in the northeastern U.S. region, species and ecosystems there are responding. Agency staff are seeking to maintain populations and enable climate adaptation, but these actions require predictions of how species will respond both to climate change and management action. This research uses the paradigms of translational ecology and knowledge coproduction to bring together scientists and resource...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
In the North Central region, invasive species and climate change are intricately linked to changing fire regimes, and together, these drivers can have pronounced effects on ecosystems. When fires burn too hot or too frequently, they can prevent slow-growing native plants from regrowing. When this happens, the landscape can transform into a new type of ecosystem, such as a forest becoming a grassland. This process is known as “ecosystem transformation”. This project will explore key management priorities including native community resilience and management of invasive species, wildfire, and ecosystem change, in a collaboration of researchers working directly with land managers and other stakeholders through the...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2023,
CASC,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Invasive grasses,
Vernal pools are small, seasonal wetlands that provide critically important seasonal habitat for many amphibian species of conservation concern. Natural resource managers and scientists in the Northeast, as well as the Northeast Refugia Research Coalition, coordinated by the Northeast CSC, recently identified vernal pools as a priority ecosystem to study, and recent revisions to State Wildlife Action Plans highlighted climate change and disease as primary threats to key vernal pool ecosystems. Mapping out the hydrology of vernal pools across the Northeast is an important step in informing land management and conservation decision-making. Project researchers modeled the hydrology of roughly 450 vernal pools from...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2017,
CASC,
Completed,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Downscaling is the process of making a coarse-scale global climate model into a finer resolution in order to capture some of the localized detail that the coarse global models cannot resolve. There are two general approaches of downscaling: dynamical and statistical. Within those, many dynamical models have been developed by different institutions, and there are a number of statistical algorithms that have been developed over the years. Many past studies have evaluated the performance of these two broad approaches of downscaling with respect to climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation), but few have translated these evaluations to ecological metrics that managers use to make decisions in planning for...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2015,
CASC,
Completed,
Landscapes,
Landscapes,
Abstract (from Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences): Human-induced abiotic global environmental changes (GECs) and the spread of nonnative invasive species are rapidly altering ecosystems. Understanding the relative and interactive effects of invasion and GECs is critical for informing ecosystem adaptation and management, but this information has not been synthesized. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate effects of invasions, GECs, and their combined influences on native ecosystems. We found 458 cases from 95 published studies that reported individual and combined effects of invasions and a GEC stressor, which was most commonly warming, drought, or nitrogen addition. We calculated standardized...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
The frosted elfin butterfly, Callophrys irus, experienced a range-wide data gap where most populations had not been surveyed in over a decade, and many populations were believed extirpated due to a variety of external pressures (USFWS 2018). In 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), in cooperation with American Conservation Experience and with support from States, collected data on a significant portion of the range of C. irus, which extends from Ontario to Florida, and west to Texas and Wisconsin (Albanese et. al. 2007). In response, the Science Support Partnership Request for Proposals has identified a need to analyze these data to look for trends that identify ‘habitat parameters that are important...
The US Forest Service (USFS) and Northeast Climate (Adaptation) Science Center (NE CASC) came together to focus research and management cooperation on the topic of the impacts of climate change on forested ecosystems. This work had 3 primary components: 1) modeling headwater stream refugia; 2) investigating resilience and resistance strategies for New England forests; and 3) studying the impact of climate change on forest mammal communities. USFS and NE CASC organizations have complimentary expertise to share in order to improve natural resource management in the critical montane and headwater habitats in the region, and worked together to use this expertise in advancing science and science support for natural resource...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Mammals,
Northeast CASC,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Wetlands,
The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive planning documents, known as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies.” SWAPs assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions to conserve natural resources over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in 2015 and the next revision anticipated in 2025. While state managers have a long history of managing for threats such as land-use change, pollution, and harvest, they have expressed a lack of expertise and capacity to keep pace with the rapid advances in climate science. This makes the prospect of integrating climate information...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2022,
CASC,
Northeast,
Northeast CASC,
Projects by Region,
Abstract (from Conservation Science and Practice): Climate change uncertainty poses serious challenges to conservation efforts. One emerging conservation strategy is to identify and conserve climate change refugia: areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable persistence of valued resources. This management paradigm may be pursued at broad scales by leveraging existing resources and placing them into a tangible framework to stimulate further collaboration that fosters management decision-making. Here, we describe a framework for moving toward operationalizing climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale with an analysis for the Sierra Nevada ecoregion (CA, USA). Structured...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to their decisions and priorities. The project team served as a resource to answer individual inquiries related to climate model projections in order to aid climate change adaptation. Additionally, the team contributed to the development of a synthesis document to help the Midwest and Northeast states prepare their threatened...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2015,
CASC,
Completed,
Forests,
Northeast,
Abstract (from Wiley): Populations along geographical range limits are often exposed to unsuitable climate and low resource availability relative to core populations. As such, there has been a renewed focus on understanding the factors that determine range limits to better predict how species will respond to global change. Using recent theory on range limits and classical understanding of density dependence, we evaluated the influence of resource availability on the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus along its trailing range edge. We estimated variation in population density, habitat use, survival, and parasite loads to test the Great Escape Hypothesis (GEH), i.e. that density dependence determines, in part, a species'...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
The CoRE (Contractions or Range Expansions) database contains a library of published literature and data on species range shifts in response to climate change. Through a systematic review of publications returned from searches on Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Scopus, we selected primary research articles that documented or attempted to document species-level distribution shifts in animal or plant species in response to recent anthropogenic climate change. We extracted data in four broad categories: (i) basic study information (study duration, location, data quality and methodological factors); (ii) basic species information (scientific names and taxonomic groups); (iii) information on the observed range shifts...
Categories: Data,
Data Release - Under Revision;
Types: Downloadable,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
Shapefile;
Tags: Africa,
Asia,
Australia,
Europe,
GLOBAL, ATLANTIC OCEAN, PACIFIC OCEAN, ARCTIC OCEAN,
Abstract (from Diversity and Distributions): Aim Identifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Location New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. Methods Using causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014–2019) and future (2080s) distributions of ecologically important mammalian carnivores and competitors along range limits in the northeastern US under two global climate models (GCMs) and a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) of projected snow and forest biomass change. Results Our hypothesis that...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
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