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Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate...
This data release contains the climate change model inputs and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model outputs from 360 HUC-8 watersheds in the Midwest United States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin), that were generated using the HAWQS (Hydrologic and Water Quality System) platform (https://hawqs.tamu.edu). The summarized data for a watershed-based climate change vulnerability assessment for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is also provided, along with the R code used to summarize the raw outputs. Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool: https://rconnect.usgs.gov/CC_Vulnerabi
Climate change has altered and is projected to continue to altering historic regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To better understand the combined impacts of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with United States Fish and Wildlife Service managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the Midwestern United States. The map is intended to aid in the prioritization of locations needing support for adaptation planning and to help managers grapple with the impacts that projected climate scenarios have on the hydrology of management units as they develop adaptation strategies....
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The datasets are to accompany a manuscript describing the prediction of submersed aquatic vegetation presence and its potential vulnerability and recovery potential. The data and accompanying analysis scripts allow users to run the final random forests predictive model and reproduce the figures reported in the manuscript. Files from several data sources (aqa_2010_lvl3_pct_oute_joined_VEG_BARCODE.csv, eco_states_near_SAV.csv, ltrm_vegsrs_thru2019_GEOMORPHIC_METRICS_final.csv, vegetation_data.csv, and water_full.csv) were combined into a single .csv file (analysis_data_for_SAV_RandomForest.csv) used as the input for the random forest model. When intersecting points with geomorphic metrics some sites were moved slightly...
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This dataset contains the input (temperature and precipitation from climate models) and output from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model runs using the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) platform (https://hawqs.tamu.edu/). The HAWQS platform is an online tool developed by Texas A&M and US EPA to allow scientists and decision-makers to run large scale watershed simulation models using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model without the need to download/install software, gather input data, perform initialization steps, or use up local computer resources. We ran the model at the Hydrologic Unit Code-8 scale over Region 3 of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,...
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This file contains five metrics that were selected to collectively represent the adaptive capacity of each of the 360 HUC-8 watersheds in US Fish and Wildlife Service Region 3 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The metrics were: percent cultivated, density of dams, projected increase in developed land cover, landscape diversity and local connectedness. Percent cultivated land cover was obtained from the National Agricultural Statistics Services 2018 Cultivated layer and was calculated by dividing the number of cultivated grid cells by the total number of grid cells in each watershed. Density of dams was calculated as the number of dams per area of the watershed using the...
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This dataset contains predictions of habitat suitability of reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) in Upper Mississippi River floodplain forest understories from Pool 3 to Pool 13. Predictions were created using three machine learning algorithms (Bayesian additive regression trees, boosted trees, and random forest). This dataset contains rasters that provide habitat suitability predictions for each 12m raster cell that had forested landcover in 2010. In addition to one raster for each of the three algorithms an ensemble (mean prediction of all three algorithms) prediction raster for each pool is provided. The presence/absence observations used to train the model are contained in a .csv file with each plot location....
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This dataset contains the percent change in means (over 20-year periods) of annual climate change metrics calculated from the climate change inputs and the hydrology outputs from the HAWQS/SWAT model. The metrics are fifteen climate change indicators evenly divided into three categories: temperature, precipitation, and hydrology that were selected by resource managers working in Region 3 of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. The projected percent change in each of these indicators from the baseline period (1986-2005) to the future period (2040-2059) in provided at the HUC-8 scale for USFWS Region 3 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin).These indicators were used...
We updated an existing online climate change vulnerability dashboard called the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). The dashboard combined 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions to create a vulnerability score for 360 watersheds across the Midwest. The vulnerability assessment can be customized for any species, habitat, or other resource of interest by users by adjusting the weighting given to each of the metrics. The updates include greater representation of the range of potential...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This is a shiny application for an online dashboard that allows users to weight the importance of climate change indicators, along with metrics of adaptive capacity, to create a custom climate change vulnerability assessment at the hydrologic unit code-8 scale. This dashboard was requested by, and developed with input from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service managers to aid in regional assessments of climate change vulnerability.
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Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to landowners and land managers interested in the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. The Midwest is not only experiencing an increase in average temperatures and precipitation, but also an increase in the frequency of extreme events, such as heat waves and floods. Forecasting the potential impacts of the changes over the next 25 to 50 years will be important for decision makers and landowners seeking to minimize the impacts to infrastructure and to the habitats themselves and prepare for the future. Changes in flood frequency threaten habitat management infrastructure and actions,...
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In order to better understand the combined impacts of climate change and spatially identify where changes are anticipated to be most extreme, we developed a climate change vulnerability map for the Midwest Region. The vulnerability map is watershed-based (Hydrologic Unit Code-8) and combines fifteen climate change indicators evenly divided into three categories: temperature, precipitation, and hydrology that were selected by resource managers working in Region 3 of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. The projected change in each of these indicators from the baseline period (1986-2005) to the future period (2040-2059) was aggregated into a composite score for each watershed. Landscape-scale metrics reflective...
Abstract (from Ecological Indicators): Climate change has and is projected to continue to alter historical regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To assess the vulnerability of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with land managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the midwestern United States with a focus on riparian systems. The map is intended for use by regional administrators to help them work across various program areas (e.g. fisheries, endangered species) to prioritize locations needing support for adaptation planning. The tool can also be utilized locally...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This dataset contains the means (over 20-year periods) of annual climate change metrics calculated from the climate change inputs and the hydrology outputs from the HAWQS/SWAT model. The metrics are fifteen climate change indicators evenly divided into three categories: temperature, precipitation, and hydrology that were selected by resource managers working in Region 3 of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. The projected change in each of these indicators from the baseline period (1986-2005) to the future period (2040-2059) in terms of difference between the periods and the percent change. The percent change was converted to min-max normalization. This dataset represents the exposure component of the vulnerability...
Script 1: This R script takes in the model outputs and climate inputs used for each model run performed in, and downloaded from, HAWQS to summarize 15 climate change exposure indicators. Script 2: This script takes the summarized climate change exposure indicators created using Script 1 and calculates the percent difference between the future and baseline period for each of the climate models. Script 3: This script was used to calculate metrics that represent the adaptive capacity of each watershed using existing datasets. See sources for each adaptive capacity dataset below. Script 4: This script takes the exposure indicators and the adaptive capacity indicators created in scripts 1-3 and applies weights that...


    map background search result map search result map Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Projected Changes in Water Quality and Quantity for Protected Areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed Adaptive Capacity Indicators for HUC-8 Watersheds in US FWS Region 3 Percent Change in Exposure Indicators at HUC-8 scale from US FWS Region 3 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Map Daily HAWQS/SWAT Outputs along with Climate Inputs for USFWS Region 3 HUC-8 Watersheds Difference and Percent Change Between Baseline and Future Period of Fifteen Climate Change Indicators for HUC-8 Watersheds in US FWS Region 3 Results from HUC -8 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Map for US FWS Region 3 Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin Predictions for the presence of submersed aquatic vegetation in the upper Mississippi River, USA, from years 2010-2019 Estimates of habitat suitability of reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) in Upper Mississippi River floodplain forest understories (ver. 2.0, February 2024) Predictions for the presence of submersed aquatic vegetation in the upper Mississippi River, USA, from years 2010-2019 Estimates of habitat suitability of reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) in Upper Mississippi River floodplain forest understories (ver. 2.0, February 2024) Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Projected Changes in Water Quality and Quantity for Protected Areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed Adaptive Capacity Indicators for HUC-8 Watersheds in US FWS Region 3 Difference and Percent Change Between Baseline and Future Period of Fifteen Climate Change Indicators for HUC-8 Watersheds in US FWS Region 3 Results from HUC -8 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Map for US FWS Region 3 Percent Change in Exposure Indicators at HUC-8 scale from US FWS Region 3 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Map Daily HAWQS/SWAT Outputs along with Climate Inputs for USFWS Region 3 HUC-8 Watersheds