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Forest assisted migration and adaptation plantings in the Northeastern US: perspectives and applications from early adopters Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: Preventing Extreme Fire Events by Learning from History: The Effects of Wind, Temperature, and Drought Extremes on Fire Activity (Cayan) Motivation. Understanding the multiple weather and climatic factors that cause wildfires is critical to short and long-period forecasting and planning. To support investigations to further such research and applications, a fine spatial scale 2km horizontal atmospheric model-founded rendition of observed wind and humidity data was generated for the period from 1980 through 2018. Focusing on California’s South Coast region, Santa Ana winds (SAWs) each occur with increasing frequency from autumn to winter and may affect fire outcomes. Aims. We investigate historical records to understand how these counteracting influences have affected fires. Methods. We defined autumn precipitation onset as the first 3 days when... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation The effectiveness of wildfire at meeting restoration goals across a fire severity gradient in the Sierra Nevada As a consequence of both warming temperatures and over a century of fire suppression, wildfires in the his torically frequent-fire forests of the western US have increased both in size and intensity, resulting in large patches of high severity fire that are well outside the historic range of variation. Postfire fuels research has often focused on such high severity patches because of the risk of both type conversion and repeated high severity fire. Yet a substantial portion of any given wildfire will likely still have burned at low to moderate severity. These areas generally retain live mature trees and surface fuels, suggesting that wildfire effects may be in keeping with some forest restoration goals. To better... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Conifer forest, Forest management, Fuels, Giant sequoia, Wildfire Wildfire danger under changing climates in the southern Great Plains throughout the 21st century The southern Great Plains (SGP) has recently experienced wildfires with unprecedented severity and frequency, which significantly threatened human life and property and altered terrestrial ecosystem functions. While it is expected that future climate change will affect wildfire danger levels by altering fire weather and fuel conditions, there remains a significant gap in understanding how these changes will manifest in the SGP. Therefore, our objectives were to (1) simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of the Burning Index (BI), a widely used fire danger index in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), and high fire danger days based on CMIP5 climate simulations, comparing the 1986–2005 historical period... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Quantifying vulnerability to plant invasion across global ecosystems The widely referenced “tens rule” in invasion ecology suggests that approximately 10% of established, non-native species will become invasive. However, the accuracy of this estimate has been questioned, as the original analysis focused on small groups of plant species in Great Britain and Australia. Using a novel database of 9501 established plants and 2924 invasive plants, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the tens rule and the first empirical analysis of how invasion rates vary across spatial scales, islands/mainlands, and climate zones. We found that invasion rates (the percentage of established species with negative impacts) are highly variable across the globe. Well-sampled environments (those with at... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Trends in the Outcomes, Practice, and Law of Low-Tech Process-Based Restoration in Western Rangelands Low tech process-based restoration (LTPBR) is increasingly used to improve river corridor resilience to diverse stressors introduced by changing land use, climate, and water usage. However, the future of LTPBR depends on multiple physical, ecological, and social factors, including the influence of water availability on LTPBR outcomes and the legal capacity for future restoration in water-limited environments. A growing body of scientific and legal literature on LTPBR allows for a quantitative, regional comparison of LTPBR projects to understand: (1) How do physical characteristics of LTPBR projects (including structure type, number, and local setting) influence the magnitude of change following LTPBR? and (2) How... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Ranchers’ and Federal Land Managers’ Mental Models of Rangeland Management Across an Environmental Gradient Managing rangelands to meet social-ecological goals requires monitoring ecological indicators to inform management responses. These goals and monitoring objectives are grounded in land managers’ understandings, or mental models, of the rangeland system. Rangeland managers’ mental models are often highly place-specific, which can enable management actions to be matched to local conditions. In the western United States, ranchers and federal agency personnel, like those in the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), are two of the primary social groups involved in rangeland management. We compared ranchers’ and BLM personnel's rangeland mental models across two regions. We conducted semi-structured interviews about their... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Tropical coral records of monthly ocean-temperature changes during the last deglaciation from IODP drilling Monthly resolved coral data from submerged fossil reefs provide improved constraints on the seasonality, interannual variability and mean changes in tropical ocean temperature under glacial to deglacial boundary conditions. Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Forest assisted migration and adaptation plantings in the Northeastern US: perspectives and applications from early adopters Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Forecasted changes to the timing of Pacific herring Clupea pallasii spawn in a warming ocean Pacific herring Clupea pallasii are a critical commercial and subsistence fish species and play a keystone role in the ecology and culture of the North Pacific. The annual herring spawn, in which mature herring migrate nearshore to deposit eggs along the coastline, is an important event linked to the migration of seabirds and marine mammals as well as a subsistence harvest for Alaska Natives and First Nations in British Columbia. Previous work has suggested that environmental variables and broad teleconnection indices play a role in the magnitude and phenology of spawning; however, the effects of these drivers have not been examined in the context of future climate scenarios. Here, we modeled variability in the... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Climate change effects on ecosystem services: Disentangling drivers of mixed responses Climate change is a pervasive hazard that impacts the supply and demand of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) that maintain human well-being. A recent review found that the impacts of climate change on EGS are sometimes mixed, posing challenges for managers who need to adapt to these changes. We expand on earlier work by exploring drivers of varying responses of EGS to climate within studies. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers directly assessing climate change impacts on the supply, demand, or monetary value of ‘provisioning EGS’, ‘regulating EGS’, or ‘cultural EGS’. Ultimately, 44 papers published from December 2014 to March 2018 were analyzed. Nearly 66% of EGS were assessed for higher-income... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Effects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration Large, severe fires are becoming more frequent in many forest types across the western United States and have resulted in tree mortality across tens of thousands of hectares. Conifer regeneration in these areas is limited because seeds must travel long distances to reach the interior of large burned patches and establishment is jeopardized by increasingly hot and dry conditions. To better inform postfire management in low elevation forests of California, USA, we collected 5‐yr postfire recovery data from 1,234 study plots in 19 wildfires that burned from 2004–2012 and 18 yrs of seed production data from 216 seed fall traps (1999–2017). We used these data in conjunction with spatially extensive climate, topography,... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Major May tornado outbreaks in the United States: Novel multiscale atmospheric patterns identified using maximum covariance analysis This study investigates the atmospheric conditions associated with major tornado outbreaks (at least seven tornadoes of magnitude EF2 or higher) in the United States during May using maximum covariance analysis (MCA). We focus on identifying the leading modes of covariability between 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies and the WMAXSHEAR parameter, a bivariate proxy of atmospheric buoyancy and vertical wind shear. By analyzing 91 significant tornado outbreaks from 1950 to 2019, we identify three primary multivariate patterns, each exhibiting distinct anomaly locations and intensities for both variables. These patterns account for 97 % of the covariability between the two fields, with the leading pattern (MCA1)... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Publication Efficacy of mitigation strategies for aquifer sustainability under climate change Groundwater systems play a pivotal role in ensuring food and water security while maintaining vital ecosystem functions. The depletion of numerous global aquifers, however, raises concerns regarding the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals and environmental flows. Despite efforts to mitigate this decline, there remains a striking gap in proving the effectiveness of these measures. Our research focuses on the karstic Edwards Aquifer system in Texas to assess how effectively current mitigation strategies are protecting groundwater levels and spring flows, which are essential for biodiversity and water security. Using counterfactual artificial intelligence, we address the critical question: ‘What would have happened... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Molokaʻi The coastal wetlands on the island of Molokaʻi are highly degraded due to land use change, sedimentation from uplands, and invasive species. However, because much of the coastal areas along the south shore are not developed, there are many opportunities for wetland restoration. In this project, we identified 12 potential sites for coastal wetland restoration on Molokaʻi. To rank the sites for their potential to be fully functional coastal wetlands, we conducted a rapid assessment of soils, hydrology, native vegetation, and habitat quality for endangered birds. We used the rapid assessment information together with spatial data available on the soils, vegetation, and hydrology of coastal areas of Molokaʻi, sea-level... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Biodiversity is not a luxury: Unpacking wealth and power to accommodate the complexity of urban biodiversity A positive correlation between wealth and biodiversity within cities is a commonly documented phenomenon in urban ecology that has come to be labeled as the “luxury effect.” We contend that both this language and this framing restrict our understanding of how sociopolitical power dynamics influence biodiversity within and across cities. We describe how the term “luxury” is not appropriately applied to describe patterns of biodiversity and how the pattern depends on the form(s) of biodiversity investigated. While we recognize examples where there is a positive relationship between socioeconomic status and biodiversity, we describe numerous examples where either opposite patterns or no clear relationship between wealth... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: Preventing Extreme Fire Events by Learning from History: The Effects of Wind, Temperature, and Drought Extremes on Fire Activity (Wall) In the first phase of this project (G19AP0039), we developed several technical outputs that focused on downscaled model outputs for the drivers of wildfire spread and behavior in collaboration with a group of experts from state and federal wildfire management agencies. However, during this time it had become apparent that the technical nature of the outputs of this project, while they provide valuable insight in the effects of wind temperature and drought extremes on wildfire activity, are not at a point to be readily assimilable by fire management agencies into active, real-time decision support processes to reduce community risk. At this juncture, the project pivoted from asking a Technical Advisory Committee... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Customized Statistically Downscaled CMIP5 and CMIP6 Projections: Application in the Edwards Aquifer Region in South-Central Texas Climate projections are being used for decision-making related to climate mitigation and adaptation and as inputs for impacts modeling related to climate change. The plethora of available projections presents end users with the challenge of how to select climate projections, known as the “practitioner's dilemma.” In addition, if an end-user determines that existing projections cannot be used, then they face the additional challenge of producing climate projections for their region that are useful for their needs. We present a methodology with novel features to address the “practitioner's dilemma” for generating downscaled climate projections for specific applications. We use the Edwards Aquifer region (EAR) in south-central... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Map of predicted relative snow disappearance dates across Moscow Mountain in Latah County, ID Predicted snow disappearance dates on Moscow Mountain in Latah County, ID. Predictors used to make the map are elevation, aspect, canopy cover, and cold-air pooling. Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Idaho, Latah, Moscow Mountain, biota Climate change impacts and adaptation in U.S. Rocky Mountain high-elevation ecosystems From a resource management perspective, climate change is considered to be one of the main threats to high-elevation ecosystems. However, these valuable ecosystems present unique challenges to climate change adaptation (actions in response to environmental change and its effects in a way that seeks to reduce harm) due to their rugged and remote characteristics. Within this context, we summarized literature on climate change impacts and adaptation actions across U.S. Rocky Mountain high-elevation ecosystems to address the important question: What are the knowledge gaps for climate change responses within this ecosystem that limit the ability of natural resource managers to perform successful climate change adaptation?... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation 1 2 »