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Assessment of species’ vulnerability to climate change has been limited by mismatch between coarse macroclimate data and the fine scales at which species select habitat. Habitat mediates climate conditions, and fine-scale habitat features may permit species to exploit favourable microclimates, but habitat preferences can also constrain their ability to do so. We leveraged fine-resolution models of near-surface temperature and humidity in grasslands to understand how microclimates affect climatic exposure and demographics in a grassland bird community. We asked: (i) Do species select favourable nest-site microclimates? (ii) Do habitat preferences limit the ability of species to access microclimates? (iii) What are...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Motivation. Understanding the multiple weather and climatic factors that cause wildfires is critical to short and long-period forecasting and planning. To support investigations to further such research and applications, a fine spatial scale 2km horizontal atmospheric model-founded rendition of observed wind and humidity data was generated for the period from 1980 through 2018. Focusing on California’s South Coast region, Santa Ana winds (SAWs) each occur with increasing frequency from autumn to winter and may affect fire outcomes. Aims. We investigate historical records to understand how these counteracting influences have affected fires. Methods. We defined autumn precipitation onset as the first 3 days when...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
As a consequence of both warming temperatures and over a century of fire suppression, wildfires in the his torically frequent-fire forests of the western US have increased both in size and intensity, resulting in large patches of high severity fire that are well outside the historic range of variation. Postfire fuels research has often focused on such high severity patches because of the risk of both type conversion and repeated high severity fire. Yet a substantial portion of any given wildfire will likely still have burned at low to moderate severity. These areas generally retain live mature trees and surface fuels, suggesting that wildfire effects may be in keeping with some forest restoration goals. To better...
The southern Great Plains (SGP) has recently experienced wildfires with unprecedented severity and frequency, which significantly threatened human life and property and altered terrestrial ecosystem functions. While it is expected that future climate change will affect wildfire danger levels by altering fire weather and fuel conditions, there remains a significant gap in understanding how these changes will manifest in the SGP. Therefore, our objectives were to (1) simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of the Burning Index (BI), a widely used fire danger index in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), and high fire danger days based on CMIP5 climate simulations, comparing the 1986–2005 historical period...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Warming temperatures can exacerbate forest drought stress, reducing defenses to bark beetle outbreaks, wildfire, and tree diseases. Concern about losses within the forests of the Navajo Nation due to these stressors led to a partnership between the Navajo Forestry Department and a diverse group of scientists to assess the vulnerability of Navajo forests to climate change and develop strategies to promote forest resilience to drought and extreme fire behavior. Here we speak with Principal Investigator Dr. Margaret Evans, and forestry consultant Jaime Yazzie, to learn more about this project.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The widely referenced “tens rule” in invasion ecology suggests that approximately 10% of established, non-native species will become invasive. However, the accuracy of this estimate has been questioned, as the original analysis focused on small groups of plant species in Great Britain and Australia. Using a novel database of 9501 established plants and 2924 invasive plants, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the tens rule and the first empirical analysis of how invasion rates vary across spatial scales, islands/mainlands, and climate zones. We found that invasion rates (the percentage of established species with negative impacts) are highly variable across the globe. Well-sampled environments (those with at...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Rapid technological advancement often receives a mix of criticism and welcome implementation. Fishing technologies, such as sonar, are believed to enable anglers to be more efficient and effective in their angling. There are concerns from anglers and managers of increased catch by technology users. We assessed the relationships between technology use—defined as the use of imaging technology such as sonar and underwater cameras—and catch, angler expectations of catch, and trip satisfaction using a dual intercept creel survey. Angling technologies were used by 80% and 79% of intercepted boat and ice anglers, respectively, but only 3.9% of shore anglers. Fishing technologies increased expected catch for game fish anglers,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
In order to initiate the actionable science needed to support effective conservation under climate change, we engaged researchers and other experts in refining and prioritizing a climate adaptation research agenda that was originally developed via dialogue with natural resource managers. Experts identified topics that were missing or underrepresented in an initial practitioner-defined list of science topics, and then scored topics according to the state of knowledge, the feasibility of research, and the potential that research might change management. Our process capitalizes on the complementarity between the expertise of practitioners and the expertise of researchers and other non-practitioners, improves the transparency...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Managing rangelands to meet social-ecological goals requires monitoring ecological indicators to inform management responses. These goals and monitoring objectives are grounded in land managers’ understandings, or mental models, of the rangeland system. Rangeland managers’ mental models are often highly place-specific, which can enable management actions to be matched to local conditions. In the western United States, ranchers and federal agency personnel, like those in the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), are two of the primary social groups involved in rangeland management. We compared ranchers’ and BLM personnel's rangeland mental models across two regions. We conducted semi-structured interviews about their...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Monthly resolved coral data from submerged fossil reefs provide improved constraints on the seasonality, interannual variability and mean changes in tropical ocean temperature under glacial to deglacial boundary conditions.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Forests in the western US are increasingly impacted by climate change. Warm, dry conditions associated with climate change both increases fire activity in western forests and make it more difficult for forests to recover after wildfires. If forests fail to recover, they may shift to non-forest ecosystems like grasslands or shrublands. It is important to understand where fires may result in the loss of forests because forests provide a variety of ecosystem services, including carbon storage, water regulation and supply, and biodiversity. Western forests are also integral for the timber industry and valued for their recreation opportunities, which can also support local economies. The goal of this project is to identify...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Highlights Increase in habitat area influences recreational birdwatching in Pacific Northwest estuaries. Increase in forested and emergent wetlands create positive synergies in birdwatching, carbon and fisheries ecosystem services. Transition to aquatic vegetation bed and mudflat from sea level rise creates ecosystem service tradeoffs. Use of ecosystem services in adaptive management considers the societal value of climate adaptation decisions. Abstract Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate stocking success of Walleye Sander vitreus in lakes and reservoirs across the Midwestern United States to inform stocking practices for state agencies. Demand for Walleye stocking may increase if climate change limits the potential for natural recruitment in lakes. Consequently, the strategic distribution of Walleye stocking may maximize fishing opportunities. Methods We synthesized data from 2226 Walleye fry and fingerling stocking events on 653 lakes in the Midwestern United States and used random forest algorithms and mixed‐effects linear models to identify abiotic and biotic factors related to Walleye stocking success. Result Latitude and year explained...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Pacific herring Clupea pallasii are a critical commercial and subsistence fish species and play a keystone role in the ecology and culture of the North Pacific. The annual herring spawn, in which mature herring migrate nearshore to deposit eggs along the coastline, is an important event linked to the migration of seabirds and marine mammals as well as a subsistence harvest for Alaska Natives and First Nations in British Columbia. Previous work has suggested that environmental variables and broad teleconnection indices play a role in the magnitude and phenology of spawning; however, the effects of these drivers have not been examined in the context of future climate scenarios. Here, we modeled variability in the...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This paper was published in the journal Marine Ornithology Journal of Seabird Science and Conservatio. It provides an overview of a model created based on 2008 KIMU survey data in Harriman Fjord and Heather Bay in PWS that can be used to identify daytime marine habitat likely used by these birds. This abstract was sourced from the publication itself: We tested a method for identifying important daytime marine habitat used by the Kittlitz’s Murrelet, a rare glacially associated seabird, in Prince William Sound, Alaska. We used a context-dependent modeling framework based on a paired logistic regression model of presenceonly data and landscape variables to predict marine habitat used across 17 fjords. Birds used...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ANIMALS/VERTEBRATES, BIOLOGICAL CLASSIFICATION, BIOSPHERE, BIRDS, EARTH SCIENCE, All tags...
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This paper was published in the journal Marine Ecology Progress Series and discussess KIMU abundance, distribution and habitat data collected for Andrew Allyn’s graduate assistantship University of Massachusetts Amherst in 2008. This abstract was sourced from the paper: Although seabirds search large areas for food, their distributions often correlate withphysical characteristics of the marine environment that can serve to aggregate prey. Kittlitz’s murrelets Brachyramphus brevirostris are found almost exclusively in Alaskan waters, where they are closely associated with glacial fjords, suggesting that the distribution of this bird might betightly linked to specific physical habitat characteristics of the fjords....
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ANIMALS/VERTEBRATES, BIOLOGICAL CLASSIFICATION, BIOSPHERE, BIRDS, EARTH SCIENCE, All tags...
Stocking is routinely used to supplement or maintain fisheries when natural recruitment is low or nonexistent. Demand for stocking of cool and coldwater fish species will likely increase because of climate change. Fish available for stocking are often a limited resource, and application of stocking may need to be more strategic in the future. We evaluated factors influencing stocking success for Walleye, a coolwater species supporting important fisheries across North America. Stocking is already used to support or maintain many Walleye fisheries, and Walleye populations have already declined due to climate change, resulting in increased demand for stocked fish. In partnership with state natural resources agencies,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate vulnerability can be evaluated by multiple organismal responses. We developed a climate vulnerability framework focused on growth potential of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss newberri). We employed a bioenergetics model to evaluate spatial variability in growth potential in relation to constraints on body size imposed by stream flow, physiological responses linked to variable thermal regimes, and variation in physiological adaptive capacity inferred from field respirometry. Results indicate that maximum size (g) of redband trout increases with stream discharge. Growth potential is strongly linked to body size, with smaller individuals performing better relative to larger fish in cooler thermal regimes....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


map background search result map search result map Relationships among Kittlitz’s murrelet habitat use, temperature-depth profiles, and landscape features in Prince William Sound, Alaska publication Assessing a Paired Logistic Regression Model of Presence-Only Data to Map Important Habitat Areas of Kittlitz's Murrelet (Brachyramphus Brevirostris) Alaska publication Relationships among Kittlitz’s murrelet habitat use, temperature-depth profiles, and landscape features in Prince William Sound, Alaska publication Assessing a Paired Logistic Regression Model of Presence-Only Data to Map Important Habitat Areas of Kittlitz's Murrelet (Brachyramphus Brevirostris) Alaska publication