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Assessing the impact of climate change on habitat for at-risk amphibians in the Pacific Northwest: which species are suitable for species distribution modeling? The Pacific Northwest is a hotspot for temperate amphibian biodiversity and is home to many species of salamanders and frogs found nowhere else on earth. Changing climatic conditions threaten habitat for many of these species, primarily through increased air and water temperature and the drying of habitats. Among the most commonly used tools for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability are species distribution models (SDMs). This approach develops models that describe suitable habitat for a focal species (or set of species) based on relationships between environmental variables and contemporary species occurrences. These models can then be used to predict changes in the availability... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Including ocean acidification effects on biocalcification through dynamic energy budget modelling Climate change impacts on ocean biogeochemistry are expected to alter calcium carbonate formation by organisms, necessitating accurate predictive models based on physiological mechanisms. The dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offer a mechanistic and integrative framework to model organism metabolism under environmental stressors. In this work, we 1) review the physiological and energetic mechanisms of biogenic calcification, 2) propose a generalized approach for inclusion in DEB modelling based on stylized facts, and 3) formulate the effects of saturation state changes on the bioenergetics of calcification. While applicable to any species performing biogenic calcification (microalgae, shellfish, fish, corals),... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Soil Moisture Information Improves Drought Risk Protection Provided by the USDA Livestock Forage Disaster Program The USDA Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) offers financial assistance to farmers and ranchers with grazed forage losses caused by fire or drought. Payments for drought losses are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), which is designed to integrate meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic droughts. Because soil moisture deficit is a more specific measure of agricultural drought, we hypothesized that basing LFP payments on soil moisture observations could better reduce producers’ risk. Therefore, our objectives were to 1) quantify relationships of forage yield with USDM-based LFP payment multipliers and with in situ soil moisture, 2) develop an alternative LFP payment multiplier... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Propagule pressure from historic U.S. plant sales explains establishment but not invasion Introduction history, including propagule pressure and residence time, has been proposed as a primary driver of biological invasions. However, it is unclear whether introduction history increases the likelihood that a species will be invasive or only the likelihood that it will be established. Using a dataset of non-native species historically available as ornamental plants in the conterminous United States, we investigated how introduction history relates to these stages of invasion. Introduction history was highly significant and a strong predictor of establishment, but only marginally significant and a poor predictor of invasive success. Propagule pressure predicted establishment better than residence time, with... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Autumn precipitation: the competition with Santa Ana winds in determining fire outcomes in southern California Background: California’s South Coast has experienced peak burned area in autumn. Following typically dry, warm summers, precipitation events and Santa Ana winds (SAWs) each occur with increasing frequency from autumn to winter and may affect fire outcomes. Aims: We investigate historical records to understand how these counteracting influences have affected fires. Methods: We defined autumn precipitation onset as the first 3 days when precipitation ≥8.5 mm, and assessed how onset timing and SAWs were associated with frequency of ≥100 ha fires and area burned during 1948–2018. Key results: Timing of autumn precipitation onset had negligible trend but varied considerably from year to year. A total of 90% of area burned... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Santa Ana winds, Southern California, autumn, climate, climate change, All tags... fire, precipitation, weather, Fewer tags Human activity drives establishment, but not invasion, of non-native plants on islands Abstract (from NSO Journals): Island ecosystems are particularly susceptible to the impacts of invasive species. Many rare and endangered species that are endemic to islands are negatively affected by invasions. Past studies have shown that the establishment of non-native species on islands is related to native plant richness, habitat heterogeneity, island age, human activity, and climate. However, it is unclear whether the factors promoting establishment (i.e. the formation of self-sustaining populations) also promote subsequent invasion (i.e. spread and negative impacts). Using data from 4308 non-native plant species across 46 islands and archipelagos globally, we examined which biogeographic characteristics influence... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Seasonal patterns in riverine carbon form and export from a temperate forested watershed in Southeast Alaska Riverine export of carbon (C) is an important part of the global C cycle; however, most riverine C budgets focus on individual forms of C and fail to comprehensively measure both organic and inorganic C species in concert. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted high frequency sampling of multiple C forms, including dissolved organic C (DOC), inorganic carbon (as alkalinity), particulate organic C (POC), coarse particulate organic C (CPOC), and invertebrate biomass C across the main run-off season in a predominantly rain-fed watershed in Southeast Alaska. Streamwater concentrations were used to model daily watershed C export from May through October. Concentration and modeled yield data indicated that DOC was... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Natural resource management confronts the growing scale and severity of ecosystem responses to drought and wildfire Intensification of drought and wildfire associated with climate change has triggered widespread ecosystem stress and transformation. Natural resource managers are on the frontline of these changes, yet their perspectives on whether management actions match the scale and align with the severity of ecosystem responses to improve outcomes are not well understood. To provide new insight, a new conceptual framework that linked scale and severity was tested by conducting interviews and surveys of staff associated with natural resource management on the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States (U.S.), which contains the highest concentration of public lands in the contiguous U.S. Results indicate that drought... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Adaptive capacities of inland fisheries facing anthropogenic pressures Inland fisheries face multiple, intensifying threats (i.e., proximate human pressures causing degraded ecological attributes) from land development, climate change, resource extraction, and competing demands for water resources. Planning for resiliency amidst these pressures requires understanding the factors that influence an inland fishery’s capacity to adapt to system changes under multiple threats. Incorporating expert knowledge can illuminate priority fisheries and provide important insights where data are otherwise limited. Using data from a global survey of 536 fishery professionals, this study examines perceptions of threats and adaptive capacity (i.e., ability to mitigate or respond to change) in major... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires Autumn and winter Santa Ana wind (SAW)–driven wildfires play a substantial role in area burned and societal losses in southern California. Temperature during the event and antecedent precipitation in the week or month prior play a minor role in determining area burned. Burning is dependent on wind intensity and number of human-ignited fires. Over 75% of all SAW events generate no fires; rather, fires during a SAW event are dependent on a fire being ignited. Models explained 40 to 50% of area burned, with number of ignitions being the strongest variable. One hundred percent of SAW fires were human caused, and in the past decade, powerline failures have been the dominant cause. Future fire losses can be reduced by... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Propagule pressure from historic U.S. plant sales explains establishment but not invasion Introduction history, including propagule pressure and residence time, has been proposed as a primary driver of biological invasions. However, it is unclear whether introduction history increases the likelihood that a species will be invasive or only the likelihood that it will be established. Using a dataset of non-native species historically available as ornamental plants in the conterminous United States, we investigated how introduction history relates to these stages of invasion. Introduction history was highly significant and a strong predictor of establishment, but only marginally significant and a poor predictor of invasive success. Propagule pressure predicted establishment better than residence time, with... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Incorporating climate change into restoration decisions: perspectives from dam removal practitioners Abstract (from Ecology and Society): Incorporating climate change into conservation and restoration decisions is increasingly important for natural resource managers and restoration practitioners to effectively address the underlying drivers of ecosystem change. Small dam removal is an example of a restoration tool that may offer multiple socioeconomic and ecological benefits in streams, including promoting climate resilience. With the pace of dam removals increasing, practitioners and researchers are well-poised to incorporate climate change into future dam removal decisions. Therefore, we surveyed dam removal practitioners across 14 states in the eastern United States to understand current practices of small dam... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation