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Location Folder Show Tree ROOT _ScienceBase Catalog __National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers ___Midwest CASC FY 2019 Projects FY 2020 Projects FY 2021 Projects FY 2022 Projects FY 2023 Projects More... Filters Date Types (for Date Range) Types Citation (20) Map Service (2) OGC WFS Layer (2) OGC WMS Layer (2) OGC WMS Service (2) Contacts Midwest CASC Gretchen Hansen Erin M. Schliep Joshua S. North Daniel A Isermann More... Categories Publication (20) Data (2) View Results as: JSON ATOM CSV Browse Folder

Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region Categories: Publication; Types: Citation The Incredible HALK: Borrowing Data for Age Assignment Understanding age and growth are important for fisheries science and management; however, age data are not routinely collected for many populations. We propose and test a method of borrowing age–length data across increasingly broader spatiotemporal levels to create a hierarchical age–length key (HALK). We assessed this method by comparing growth and mortality metrics to those estimated from lake–year age–length keys ages using seven common freshwater fish species across the upper Midwestern United States. Levels used for data borrowing began most specifically by borrowing within lake across time and increased in breadth to include data within the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watershed, HUC8 watershed, Level III... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases.... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service Insecticides, more than herbicides, land use, and climate, are associated with declines in butterfly species richness and abundance in the American Midwest Mounting evidence shows overall insect abundances are in decline globally. Habitat loss, climate change, and pesticides have all been implicated, but their relative effects have never been evaluated in a comprehensive large-scale study. We harmonized 17 years of land use, climate, multiple classes of pesticides, and butterfly survey data across 81 counties in five states in the US Midwest. We find community-wide declines in total butterfly abundance and species richness to be most strongly associated with insecticides in general, and for butterfly species richness the use of neonicotinoid-treated seeds in particular. This included the abundance of the migratory monarch (Danaus plexippus), whose decline is the focus... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Diminishing productivity and hyperstable harvest in northern Wisconsin walleye fisheries Managing fisheries in a changing socio-ecological environment may require holistic approaches for identifying and adapting to novel ecosystem dynamics. Using 32 years of Ceded Territory of Wisconsin (CTWI) walleye (Sander vitreus) data, we estimated production (P), biomass (B), biomass turnover (P/B), yield (Y), and yield over production (Y/P) and tested for hyperstability in walleye yield. Most CTWI walleye populations showed low P, and B, and Y/P < 1. Yet, production overharvest (Y/P > 1) was prevalent among Wisconsin walleye recruitment-based management approaches (natural recruitment [NR], sustained only by stocking, combination). Production, B, and P/B have declined in NR populations, while Y and Y/P have remained... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to Support Regional Climate Adaptation We updated an existing online climate change vulnerability dashboard called the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). The dashboard combined 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions to create a vulnerability score for 360 watersheds across the Midwest. The vulnerability assessment can be customized for any species, habitat, or other resource of interest by users by adjusting the weighting given to each of the metrics. The updates include greater representation of the range of potential... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Survival of a polymorphic species in seasonally snow-covered forests Color polymorphism is an adaptive strategy in which a species exhibits multiple color phenotypes in a population. Often, phenotypes are variably suited to different environmental conditions which may buffer the population against variable conditions. Modern climate change is creating novel selective pressures for many species, especially in winter habitats. Few studies have quantified the benefits of polymorphism for allowing species to cope with climate-induced environmental change, particularly for species with more cryptic differences between morphs. We investigated how color polymorphism mediates selective pressures in ruffed grouse Bonasa umbellus, a winter-adapted bird species of North American forests. Ruffed... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Long-term changes in autumn–winter harvest distributions vary among duck species, months, and subpopulations Our aim was to describe shifts in autumn and winter harvest distributions of three species of dabbling ducks (blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) in the Central and Mississippi flyways of North America during 1960–2019. We measured shifts in band recovery distributions corrected for changes in hunting season dates and zones by using kernel density estimators to calculate 10 distributional metrics. We then assessed interannual and intraspecific variation by comparing species-specific changes in distributional metrics for 4 months (October–January) and three geographically based subpopulations. During 1960–2019, band recovery distributions shifted west-... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation It’s complicated and it depends: A review of the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch Populations in North America Walleye (Sander vitreus) and Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) are culturally, economically, and ecologically significant fish species in North America that are affected by drivers of global change. Here, we review and synthesize the published literature documenting the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch. We focus on four drivers: climate (including temperature and precipitation), aquatic invasive species, land use and nutrient loading, and water clarity. We identified 1232 tests from 370 papers, split evenly between Walleye (N=613) and Yellow Perch (N=620). Climate was the most frequently studied driver (N=572) and growth/condition was the most frequently studied response (N=297). The most commonly... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Accounting for spatiotemporal sampling variation in joint species distribution models Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Evaluating At-Risk Black Ash Wetlands as Biodiversity Hotspots in Northern Forests Black ash (Fraxinus nigra) forests, which cover over 1.2 million hectares in the Great Lakes Region, are threatened by emerald ash borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis), which is eliminating native populations of ash throughout the region. Understanding the contribution of black ash wetlands to local and regional species richness is critical in forming effective conservation policies and informing management plans for these imperiled habitats. We measured breeding bird and anuran communities in black ash wetlands and compared them to nearby non-black ash habitats for each taxa: aspen-dominated upland forest for birds and emergent wetlands for anurans. Our results showed black ash wetlands support unique communities of... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation A Review of Data-Driven Discovery for Dynamic Systems Many real-world scientific processes are governed by complex non-linear dynamic systems that can be represented by differential equations. Recently, there has been an increased interest in learning, or discovering, the forms of the equations driving these complex non-linear dynamic systems using data-driven approaches. In this paper, we review the current literature on data-driven discovery for dynamic systems. We provide a categorisation to the different approaches for data-driven discovery and a unified mathematical framework to show the relationship between the approaches. Importantly, we discuss the role of statistics in the data-driven discovery field, describe a possible approach by which the problem can be... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Private land management is more important than public land in sustaining oaks in temperate forests in the eastern U.S. Preserving the abundance and stocking of oaks (Quercus spp.) has become increasingly challenging in temperate hardwood forests of the eastern US in recent decades due to a remarkable shift in dominance to mesophytic species (e.g., red maple Acer rubrum). Studies have shown that efforts to sustain oaks while restraining maples yield limited success. Given that a significant portion of forestlands in the eastern U.S. are privately owned, it is critical to assess whether current forest management on cross-ownership forests can achieve those objectives. However, such assessments are rare. In this study, we employed a landscape modeling approach to investigate the long-term outcomes (i.e., 150-year forest composition... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Current management in national and state forests has important but limited impacts on sustaining oaks in temperate forests of the eastern U.S Active management for promoting oaks (Quercus spp.) and restraining maples (Acer spp.) is mostly conducted in public forests (e.g., national forests [NF] and state forests [SF]) because of oaks' ecological and economic importance. Studies have shown that current management efforts have limited success, meanwhile, oak-dominant forests continue to shift in composition and structure to shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive mesophytic species (e.g., red maple A. rubrum). It remains to be evaluated whether current management can achieve its objectives in public forests and at regional scales. In this study, we investigated the long-term outcomes of business-as-usual (BAU) and alternative management (AltMgt) scenarios in a large,... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Daily surface temperatures for 185,549 lakes in the conterminous United States estimated using deep learning (1980–2020) The dataset described here includes estimates of historical (1980–2020) daily surface water temperature, lake metadata, and daily weather conditions for lakes bigger than 4 ha in the conterminous United States (n = 185,549), and also in situ temperature observations for a subset of lakes (n = 12,227). Estimates were generated using a long short-term memory deep learning model and compared to existing process-based and linear regression models. Model training was optimized for prediction on unmonitored lakes through cross-validation that held out lakes to assess generalizability and estimate error. On the held-out lakes with in situ observations, median lake-specific error was 1.24°C, and the overall root mean squared... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Sapling recruitment as an indicator of carbon resiliency in forests of the northern USA Tree regeneration shapes forest carbon dynamics by determining long-term forest composition and structure, which suggests that threats to natural regeneration may diminish the capacity of forests to replace live tree carbon transferred to the atmosphere or other pools through tree mortality. Yet, the potential implications of tree regeneration patterns for future carbon dynamics have been sparsely studied. We used forest inventory plots to investigate whether the composition of existing tree regeneration is consistent with aboveground carbon stock loss, replacement, or gain for forests across the northeastern and midwestern USA, leveraging a recently developed method to predict the likelihood of sapling recruitment... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Data in Support of Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Poikilotherms Using Physiologically Guided Species Abundance Models Fish catch and effort data for three species caught in gill nets and trap nets between 1988 and 2019 as part of Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys conducted during the summer and early fall are included from over 1,300 Minnesota lakes. The three fish species included are: bluegill (Lepomis marochirus) a warm-water adapted species, yellow perch (Perca flavescens) a cool-water adapted species, and cisco (Coregonus artedi) a cold-water adapted species. Additional data concerning lake characteristics and surrounding land cover were also included. Mean July lake surface temperature was calculated using simulated daily water temperatures. Watershed land use including agricultural, barren,... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ecological modeling, fisheries, freshwater fish, water temperature Grassland woody plant management rapidly changes woody vegetation persistence and abiotic habitat conditions but not herbaceous community composition Grasslands are among the most imperilled ecosystems worldwide, and many have experienced degradation due to the loss of historical disturbance regimes and subsequent woody encroachment. Management practitioners often use physical and chemical management interventions in combination with fire to counter encroachment, altering aboveground structure and belowground function, respectively. This may disrupt the feedbacks that perpetuate encroachment and restore the herbaceous community. We use a large-scale field experiment to assess the initial effects of different management interventions on woody vegetation persistence, abiotic habitat conditions, and herbaceous community composition. We evaluate these effects across... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation