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Assessment of species’ vulnerability to climate change has been limited by mismatch between coarse macroclimate data and the fine scales at which species select habitat. Habitat mediates climate conditions, and fine-scale habitat features may permit species to exploit favourable microclimates, but habitat preferences can also constrain their ability to do so. We leveraged fine-resolution models of near-surface temperature and humidity in grasslands to understand how microclimates affect climatic exposure and demographics in a grassland bird community. We asked: (i) Do species select favourable nest-site microclimates? (ii) Do habitat preferences limit the ability of species to access microclimates? (iii) What are...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The southern Great Plains (SGP) has recently experienced wildfires with unprecedented severity and frequency, which significantly threatened human life and property and altered terrestrial ecosystem functions. While it is expected that future climate change will affect wildfire danger levels by altering fire weather and fuel conditions, there remains a significant gap in understanding how these changes will manifest in the SGP. Therefore, our objectives were to (1) simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of the Burning Index (BI), a widely used fire danger index in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), and high fire danger days based on CMIP5 climate simulations, comparing the 1986–2005 historical period...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Rapid technological advancement often receives a mix of criticism and welcome implementation. Fishing technologies, such as sonar, are believed to enable anglers to be more efficient and effective in their angling. There are concerns from anglers and managers of increased catch by technology users. We assessed the relationships between technology use—defined as the use of imaging technology such as sonar and underwater cameras—and catch, angler expectations of catch, and trip satisfaction using a dual intercept creel survey. Angling technologies were used by 80% and 79% of intercepted boat and ice anglers, respectively, but only 3.9% of shore anglers. Fishing technologies increased expected catch for game fish anglers,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
In order to initiate the actionable science needed to support effective conservation under climate change, we engaged researchers and other experts in refining and prioritizing a climate adaptation research agenda that was originally developed via dialogue with natural resource managers. Experts identified topics that were missing or underrepresented in an initial practitioner-defined list of science topics, and then scored topics according to the state of knowledge, the feasibility of research, and the potential that research might change management. Our process capitalizes on the complementarity between the expertise of practitioners and the expertise of researchers and other non-practitioners, improves the transparency...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Low tech process-based restoration (LTPBR) is increasingly used to improve river corridor resilience to diverse stressors introduced by changing land use, climate, and water usage. However, the future of LTPBR depends on multiple physical, ecological, and social factors, including the influence of water availability on LTPBR outcomes and the legal capacity for future restoration in water-limited environments. A growing body of scientific and legal literature on LTPBR allows for a quantitative, regional comparison of LTPBR projects to understand: (1) How do physical characteristics of LTPBR projects (including structure type, number, and local setting) influence the magnitude of change following LTPBR? and (2) How...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Managing rangelands to meet social-ecological goals requires monitoring ecological indicators to inform management responses. These goals and monitoring objectives are grounded in land managers’ understandings, or mental models, of the rangeland system. Rangeland managers’ mental models are often highly place-specific, which can enable management actions to be matched to local conditions. In the western United States, ranchers and federal agency personnel, like those in the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), are two of the primary social groups involved in rangeland management. We compared ranchers’ and BLM personnel's rangeland mental models across two regions. We conducted semi-structured interviews about their...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The widely referenced “tens rule” in invasion ecology suggests that approximately 10% of established, non-native species will become invasive. However, the accuracy of this estimate has been questioned, as the original analysis focused on small groups of plant species in Great Britain and Australia. Using a novel database of 9501 established plants and 2924 invasive plants, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the tens rule and the first empirical analysis of how invasion rates vary across spatial scales, islands/mainlands, and climate zones. We found that invasion rates (the percentage of established species with negative impacts) are highly variable across the globe. Well-sampled environments (those with at...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Monthly resolved coral data from submerged fossil reefs provide improved constraints on the seasonality, interannual variability and mean changes in tropical ocean temperature under glacial to deglacial boundary conditions.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Highlights Increase in habitat area influences recreational birdwatching in Pacific Northwest estuaries. Increase in forested and emergent wetlands create positive synergies in birdwatching, carbon and fisheries ecosystem services. Transition to aquatic vegetation bed and mudflat from sea level rise creates ecosystem service tradeoffs. Use of ecosystem services in adaptive management considers the societal value of climate adaptation decisions. Abstract Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate stocking success of Walleye Sander vitreus in lakes and reservoirs across the Midwestern United States to inform stocking practices for state agencies. Demand for Walleye stocking may increase if climate change limits the potential for natural recruitment in lakes. Consequently, the strategic distribution of Walleye stocking may maximize fishing opportunities. Methods We synthesized data from 2226 Walleye fry and fingerling stocking events on 653 lakes in the Midwestern United States and used random forest algorithms and mixed‐effects linear models to identify abiotic and biotic factors related to Walleye stocking success. Result Latitude and year explained...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Pacific herring Clupea pallasii are a critical commercial and subsistence fish species and play a keystone role in the ecology and culture of the North Pacific. The annual herring spawn, in which mature herring migrate nearshore to deposit eggs along the coastline, is an important event linked to the migration of seabirds and marine mammals as well as a subsistence harvest for Alaska Natives and First Nations in British Columbia. Previous work has suggested that environmental variables and broad teleconnection indices play a role in the magnitude and phenology of spawning; however, the effects of these drivers have not been examined in the context of future climate scenarios. Here, we modeled variability in the...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center’s (NC CASC) Sagebrush and Climate Change Workshop occurred on August 20 and 21, 2024 at the University of Colorado Boulder, the NC CASC’s university host. The workshop convened experts and partners from a range of agencies, institutions, and geographies to discuss research and synthesis needs in the eastern sagebrush biome in Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. The workshop was organized to promote discussion and gather input from experts, practitioners and stakeholders/rights holders to inform NC CASC’s science synthesis and research efforts on social-ecological transformation in the eastern sagebrush biome (WY, CO, MT) driven by climate change and other anthropogenic...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change is expected to influence aquatic habitats and associated fish populations, yet we know little about the impact on recreational anglers. Our goal was to explore whether interannual fluctuations in waterbody surface area and other explanatory variables could be used as indicators of changes in angler fishing effort. Our approach leveraged a combination of remotely sensed waterbody surface area, environmental and fish population data, and onsite angler survey monitoring data for Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA during the open-water fishing period (May 1st to August 31st) for 9 years (1992–2021). The information was used to develop a dynamic waterbody size-angler effort model. Changes in waterbody surface...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Collection of factsheets that provide summaries of observed species range shifts in the United States by Climate Adaptation Science Center region using the CoRE (Contractions and Range Expansions) Database.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Dispersal can strongly influence the demographic and evolutionary trajectory of populations. For many species, little is known about dispersal, despite its importance to conservation. The Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a species of conservation concern that ranges across 11 western U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces. To investigate dispersal patterns among spring breeding congregations, we examined a 21-locus microsatellite DNA dataset of 3,244 Greater Sage-Grouse sampled from 763 leks throughout Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, USA, across 7 yr. We recaptured ~2% of individuals, documenting 41 instances of breeding dispersal, with 7 dispersal events of .50 km, including 1 of...
Traditional conservation efforts have centred on safeguarding individual species, but these strategies have limitations in a world where entire ecosystems are rapidly changing. Ecosystem conservation can maintain critical ecological functions, but often lacks the detail necessary for the effective conservation of threatened or endangered species. The conservation of such species is mandated by policies and remains a dominant focus of natural resource management. In this Perspective, we propose that assemblage-level conservation targeting groups of taxonomically related or functionally similar species can bridge the gap between species and ecosystems and help to address global biodiversity loss. This approach has...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change is altering the thermal habitats of freshwater fish species. We analyze modeled daily temperature profiles from 12,688 lakes in the US to track changes in thermal habitat of 60 lake fish species from different thermal guilds during 1980-2021. We quantify changes in each species’ preferred days, defined as the number of days per year when a lake contains the species’ preferred temperature. We find that cooler-water species are losing preferred days more rapidly than warmer-water species are gaining them. This asymmetric impact cannot be attributed to differences in geographic distribution among species; instead, it is linked to the seasonal dynamics of lake temperatures and increased thermal homogenization...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


map background search result map search result map Genetic recapture identifies long-distance breeding dispersal in Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) Genetic recapture identifies long-distance breeding dispersal in Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)