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Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shapelowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceedslake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, decliningMIT since the1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity towinter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data.Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last30years (2.4°C), withMABT above freezing5 of the last 7years.This is incomparison to slower ratesofwarming...
The tundra biome is the dominant terrestrial ecosystem of the circumpolar north, and its fate in a rapidly changing climate is of high scientific and socioeconomic concern. One of those concerns is that the majority of caribou herds throughout the circumpolar north are declining, perhaps as a result of climate change. The principal objective of this research is to reveal the connections between soil nutrient cycling, forage quality and caribou habitat selection. This framework is underpinned by the concept that tundra ecosystem productivity is ultimately driven by the thermodynamics of the system induced by climate.
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: ALPINE/TUNDRA,
ALPINE/TUNDRA,
CARBON,
CARBON,
CARBON CYCLE/CARBON BUDGET MODELS,
In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lakesummer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade1) between 1985 and2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate andlocal characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regionalconsistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widelygeographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing whilecloud...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS,
ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS,
Federal resource managers,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Publication,
Rapid expansion of cropland threatens grassland ecosystems across western North America and broad-scaleplanning can be a catalyst motivating individuals and agencies to accelerate conservation. Sprague’s Pipit(Anthus spragueii) is an imperiled grassland songbird whose population has been declining rapidly in recent decades.Here, we present a strategic framework for conservation of pipits and their habitat in the northern GreatPlains.We modeled pipit distribution across its million-km2 breeding range in Canada and the U.S.We describefactors shaping distribution, delineate population cores and assess vulnerability to future grassland losses. Pipitsselected landscapes with a high proportion of continuous grassland...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2010,
2010,
2011,
2011,
2012,
Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2011,
2011,
2012,
2012,
2013,
The California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; hereafter, CTS) is classified as a federally threatened species (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2004). Consequently, much research has been done to provide information for its management and conservation. However, previous research has primarily focused on the use of upland, terrestrial environments by CTS (Trenham and Shaffer 2005), the demography of populations (Trenham et al. 2001), and the effects of hybridization between CTS and the introduced, barred tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum mavortium; Johnson et al. 2013). Information on the characteristics of wetlands (e.g., hydrologic regime) that support reproduction and metamorphosis by CTS is limited....
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Completed,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Publication,
environment
The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: BIRDS,
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS,
Federal resource managers,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Publication,
Playa wetlands on the west-central Great Plains of North America are vulnerable to sediment infilling from upland agriculture, putting at risk several important ecosystem services as well as essential habitats and food resources of diverse wetland-dependent biota. Climate predictions for this semi-arid area indicate reduced precipitation which may alter rates of erosion, runoff, and sedimentation of playas. We forecasted erosion rates, sediment depths, and resultant playa wetland depths across the west-central Great Plains and examined the relative roles of land use context and projected changes in precipitation in the sedimentation process. We estimated erosion with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS,
Climate Change,
Climate Change,
Climatic Change,
Climatic Change,
Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases....
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service
Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Completed,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Publication,
environment
We conducted detailed resurveys of a montane mammal, Urocitellus beldingi, to examine the effects of climate change on persistence along the trailing edge of its range. Of 74 California sites where U. beldingi were historically recorded (1902–1966), 42 per cent were extirpated, with no evidence for colonization of previously unoccupied sites. Increases in both precipitation and temperature predicted site extirpations, potentially owing to snowcover loss. Surprisingly, human land-use change buffered climate change impacts, leading to increased persistence and abundance. Excluding human-modified sites, U. beldingi has shown an upslope range retraction of 255 m. Generalized additive models of past distribution were...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Completed,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Publication,
environment
The phenomenon of cheatgrass die-off is a common and naturally- occurring stand failure that can eliminate the presence of this annual grass for a year or more, affecting tens to hundreds of thousands of acres in some years. We designed a study to determine if the temporary lack of cheatgrass caused by die-offs is a restoration opportunity. We seeded native perennial species at three die-offs in the Winnemucca, Nevada area. Native grass establishment in die-offs was almost three times higher in the first season at all sites, relative to adjacent areas without die-off. In the second season, establishment was five times higher in the die-off at two sites, and plants were notably larger in the die-off at the third...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Academics & scientific researchers,
California,
Cheatgrass,
Completed,
EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE,
Article Abstract: Although riparian and aquatic ecosystems make up a small fraction of the area in arid and semi-arid lands, they are critical for the survival of desert life. There are, however, few compendia of efforts to define the quantity of water needed to maintain these ecosystems and understand the risks and stressors to them. Through our analysis we found that 62% of the rivers examined in the deserts of the U.S. and Mexico have had just one study over the past four decades and 67% of studies used qualitative methods. Furthermore, only one-third of the 312 species catalogued in our work have been studied more than once and only 5% have been considered five or more times. The most common risks or stressors...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: Aquascalientes,
Arizona,
Baja California,
California,
Chihuahua,
Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity canaccommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extentand variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategiesto mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemi-sia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to lateNovember among gardens. Mixed-effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% couldbe assigned to plasticity and genetic variation...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Academics & scientific researchers,
Artemisia tridentata,
California,
Completed,
EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE,
Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Report,
aspen woodland,
biota,
Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) has been developing web applications to centralize and serve credible and usable information that allows natural resource managers, as well as the general public, to better understand the challenges posed by on-going environmental change. In particular CBI has designed a series of climate consoles that provide natural resource managers the most recent 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP5) climate projections, landscape intactness, and soil sensitivity for a series of reporting units over the western United States. The publically available web sites were refined based on feedback from a variety of users. In this paper, we describe each of the tools developed as open-source...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: CMIP5,
California,
Completed,
Coproduction,
EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE,
The loss of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) on sites disturbed by fire has motivated restoration seeding and planting efforts. However, the resulting sagebrush establishment is often lower than desired, especially in dry areas. Sagebrush establishment may be increased by addressing factors such as seed source and condition or management of the plant community. We assessed initial establishment of seeded sagebrush and four populations of small outplants (from different geographies, climates, and cytotypes) and small sagebrush outplants in an early seral community where mowing, herbicide, and seeding of other native plants had been experimentally applied. No emergence of seeded sagebrush was detected. Mowing...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Completed,
EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE,
Idaho,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Report,
Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Citation,
Journal,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
LCC Science Catalog,
Pacific Islands LCC,
The steep mountain slopes of Haleakalā Volcano (Maui, HI) support some of the most spatially diverse environments on the planet. Microclimates found across vertical gradients on the mountain slopes can change over relatively short differences in slope exposure and elevation and are strongly influenced by a persistent temperature inversion and northeast trade winds that are characteristic of this region. Eleven climate stations, which comprise the HaleNet climate network, have been monitoring climatic conditions along a 2030-m leeward (960 to 2990 m) and a 810-m windward (1650 to 2460 m) elevational transect, beginning as early as June of 1988. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, net radiation, relative humidity,...
Publication titled “Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections”
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Citation,
Journal,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
LCC Science Catalog,
Publication,
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