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An Inventory of Climate Change Projects in select United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands) This report identifies needs and opportunities in the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region relative to climate change science, management, and adaptation strategies. The region includes the territories of Guam and American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas (CNMI), and the independent states of Palau, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). This inventory is responsive to the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) Strategic Science Agenda and its articulation with the region. Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Islands CASC Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Private land owners, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, forests, upper midwest, Fewer tags Presence and abundance of non-native plant species associated with recent energy development in the Williston Basin The Williston Basin, located in the NorthernGreat Plains, is experiencing rapid energy developmentwith North Dakota and Montana being the epicenter ofcurrent and projected development in the USA. Theaverage single-bore well pad is 5 acres with an estimated58,485 wells in North Dakota alone. This landscapeleveldisturbance may provide a pathway for the establishmentof non-native plants. To evaluate potentialinfluences of energy development on the presence andabundance of non-native species, vegetation surveyswere conducted at 30 oil well sites (14 ten-year-oldand 16 five-year-old wells) and 14 control sites in nativeprairie environments across the Williston Basin. Nonnativespecies richness and cover were recorded... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, All tags... LCC Network Science Catalog, Monitoring, Montana, North Dakota, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Private land owners, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, completed, environment, environment, Fewer tags Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables.... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Climate change, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Prairie Pothole Region, Presentation, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Vulnerability Assessment, avian conservation, climate models, completed, downscale climate models, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: A blind spot in climate change Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, environment, environment, migratory birds, upper midwest, vulnerability, Fewer tags Building the Foundation for International Conservation Planning for Breeding Ducks across the U.S. and Canadian Border We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatialdata on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicitmodel of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Ourspatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across thePPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by yearfrom 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transectsegment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit modelsof waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward jointconservation... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Conservation NGOs, Conservation Planning, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, All tags... LCC Network Science Catalog, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Publication, State agencies, Tribes, completed, environment, environment, publication, Fewer tags Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely recognized as among the most important threats to global biodiversity. New analytical approaches are providing improved ability to predict the effects of landscape change on population connectivity at vast spatial extents. This paper presents an analysis of population connectivity for three species of conservation concern [swift fox (Vulpes velox); lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus); massasuaga (Sistrurus catenatus)] across the American Great Plains region. We used factorial least-cost path and resistant kernel analyses to predict effects of landscape conditions on corridor network connectivity. Our predictions of population connectivity provide testable... Categories: Data, Project, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, CO-01, CO-02, CO-03, CO-04, All tags... CO-05, CO-06, CO-07, Climate Change, Decision Support, Decision support, FY 2010, Federal resource managers, Federal resource managers, GPLCC, GRASSLANDS, Great Plains, Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative, KS-01, KS-02, KS-04, LCC, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Map, Map, NE-01, NE-03, NM-02, NM-03, OK-03, OK-04, OK-05, Policy makers & regulators, Policy makers & regulators, Population and Habitat Evaluation/Projection, Project, Publication, Publication, Report, SAVANNA, SD-00, State agencies, State agencies, TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS, TX-11, TX-13, TX-19, TX-23, Vulnerability Assessment, WY-00, biota, completed, geoscientificInformation, Fewer tags One step ahead of the plow: Using cropland conversion risk to guide Sprague's Pipit conservation in the northern Great Plains Rapid expansion of cropland threatens grassland ecosystems across western North America and broad-scaleplanning can be a catalyst motivating individuals and agencies to accelerate conservation. Sprague’s Pipit(Anthus spragueii) is an imperiled grassland songbird whose population has been declining rapidly in recent decades.Here, we present a strategic framework for conservation of pipits and their habitat in the northern GreatPlains.We modeled pipit distribution across its million-km2 breeding range in Canada and the U.S.We describefactors shaping distribution, delineate population cores and assess vulnerability to future grassland losses. Pipitsselected landscapes with a high proportion of continuous grassland... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2010, 2011, 2011, 2012, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Informing Conservation Delivery, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Population and Habitat Evaluation, Private land owners, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, bird populations, completed, environment, environment, glacial, grassland brids, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Private land owners, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, forests, upper midwest, Fewer tags Publication: A Semi-Automated, Multi-Source Data Fusion Update of aWetland Inventory for East-Central Minnesota Comprehensive wetland inventories are an essential tool for wetland management, but developing and maintaining an inventory is expensive and technically challenging. Funding for these efforts has also been problematic. Here we describe a large-area application of a semi-automated processused to update a wetland inventory for east-central Minnesota. The original inventory for this area was the product of a laborintensive, manual photo-interpretation process. The present application incorporated high resolution, multi-spectral imagery from multiple seasons; high resolution elevation data derived from lidar; satellite radar imagery; and other GIS data. Map production combined image segmentation and random forest classification... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2010, 2011, 2011, 2012, All tags... 2012, 2013, 2014, 2014, Academics & scientific researchers, Conservation NGOs, Conservation Planning, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Map, Publication, Regional & county planners, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Wetlands, completed, environment, environment, maps, minnesota, upper midwest, wisconsin, Fewer tags Publication: Intrafragment riverscape conservation for an imperiled, small-bodied, pelagic-broadcast spawning minnow: speckled chub (Macrhybopsis aestivalis) Intrafragment ecology is little studied for imperiled riverine fishes although river fragmentation and habitat loss increasingly threaten sensitive species. A long-term population-monitoring program in the Pecos River, New Mexico, provided detailed data for 15 annual cohorts of speckled chub (Macrhybopsis aestivalis), which were used to assess intrafragment patterns in recruitment and year-class strength in relation to distributional patterns, flow-regime characteristics, and air temperature. Cohorts avoided a degraded upstream reach. Age-1 and older individuals had distributions consistently centered within a central, relict-ecosystem reach that contained high-quality habitat. Age-0 individuals were widespread... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), CATFISHES/MINNOWS, Climate Change, Climate Change, All tags... FISH, Federal resource managers, Federal resource managers, GPLCC, GPLCC, Great Plains, Great Plains, Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative, HABITAT CONVERSION/FRAGMENTATION, LCC Network Science Catalog, New Mexico, New Mexico, Plains Fish, Plains Fish, Policy makers & regulators, Population & Habitat Evaluation/Projection, Prairie Rivers and Streams, Prairie Rivers and Streams, Publication, RIVERS/STREAM, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, State agencies, Wildlife Mangement, Wildlife Mangement, biota, completed, environment, inlandWaters, Fewer tags Comparison of removal-based methods for estimating abundance of five species of prairie songbirds Estimating species abundance is important for land managers, especially for monitoringconservation efforts. The two main survey methods for estimating avian abundance are point counts and transects. Previous comparisons of these two methods have either been limited to a single species or have not included detection probability. During the 2012 breeding season, we compared and assessed the efficiency (precision for amount of effort) of point count time of detection (PCTD) and dependent double-observer transect (TRMO) methods based on detection probabilities and abundance estimates of five species of songbirds that use a range of habitats in a prairie system in Montana dominated by sagebrush and grassland vegetation.... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, 2012, 2013, 2014, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, All tags... Informing Conservation Delivery, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Land Use, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Private land owners, Publication, Report, Vulnerability Assessment, completed, environment, environment, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, sagebrush, Fewer tags Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Climate change, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Prairie Pothole Region, Presentation, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Vulnerability Assessment, avian conservation, climate models, completed, downscale climate models, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: Local-Scale Benefits of River Connectivity Restoration Planning Beyond Jurisdictional Boundaries Conservation planning aims to optimize outcomes for select species or ecosystems by directing resources toward high-return sites. The possibility that local benefits might be increased by directing resources beyond the focal area is rarely considered. We present a case study of restoring river connectivity for migratory fish of the Great Lakes Basin by removing dams and road crossings within municipal jurisdictions versus their broader watersheds. We found that greater river connectivity could often be achieved by considering both intra-jurisdictional and extra-jurisdictional barriers. Focusing on jurisdictional barriers alone generally forfeited <20 (median = 0%) of habitat gains for those who value solely habitat... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, Applications and Tools, All tags... Conservation NGOs, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Publication, Regional & county planners, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, completed, connectivity, environment, fish barriers, fish passage, upper midwest, Fewer tags Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. Theclimatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodologicaldecisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climateprojections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM)performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecologicalmodels. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments onmean projected... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Climate change, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Prairie Pothole Region, Presentation, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Vulnerability Assessment, avian conservation, climate models, completed, downscale climate models, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Avoidance of unconventional oil wells and roads exacerbates habitat loss for grassland birds in the North American great plains Oil development in the Bakken shale region has increased rapidly as a result of new technologies and strongdemand for fossil fuel. This region also supports a particularly high density and diversity of grassland bird species,which are declining across North America. We examined grassland bird response to unconventional oilextraction sites (i.e. developed with hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques) and associatedroads in North Dakota. Our goal was to quantify the amount of habitat that was indirectly degraded by oil development,as evidenced by patterns of avoidance by birds. Grassland birds avoided areas within 150 m of roads(95% CI: 87–214 m), 267 m of single-bore well pads (95% CI: 157–378 m),... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, Bats, All tags... EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Monitoring, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Publication, Report, State agencies, Vulnerability Assessment, Wind Energy, completed, energy development, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Land use and wetland drainage affect water levels and dynamics of remaining wetlands Many waterbird species utilize a diversity of aquatic habitats; however, with increasing anthropogenic needs tomanage water regimes there is global concern over impacts to waterbird populations. The federally threatened pipingplover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plovers) is a shorebird that breeds in three habitat types in the Prairie PotholeRegion of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Canada: riverine sandbars; reservoir shorelines; and prairie wetlands. Watersurface areas of these habitats fluctuate in response to wet–dry periods; decreasing water surface areas exposeshorelines that plovers utilize for nesting. Climate varies across the region so when other habitats are unavailable forplover nesting because of flooding,... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2012, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, All tags... Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Monitoring, Plains and Prairie Potholes, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Publication, Waterbirds, climate change, completed, consolidated drainage, environment, environment, piping plover, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, wetlands, Fewer tags The Effect of Snow: How to Better Model Ground Surface Temperatures Abstract: We present an inverse modeling approach for reconstructing the effective thermal conductivity of snow on a daily basis using air temperature, ground temperature and snow depth measurements. The method is applied to four sites in Alaska. To validate the method we used measured snow densities and snow water equivalents. The modeled thermal conductivities of snow for the two interior Alaska sites have relatively low values and reach their maximum near the end of the snow season, while the conductivities at the two sites on the Alaskan North Slope are higher and reach their maximum earlier in the snow season. We show that the reconstructed daily thermal conductivities allow for more accurate modeling of ground... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Alaska CSC, Climate and Ecosystem Modeling, SWE, Snow thermal conductivity, Thermal properties, All tags... inverse modeling, permafrost, snow, Fewer tags Publication: Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from local populations to drive regional characteristics of population cycling and spatial synchronization. Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2013, 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags... Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, environment, environment, great lakes, upper midwest, vulnerability, Fewer tags Publication: Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events The availability of output from climate model ensembles,such as phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5), has greatly expanded information about future projections,but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be utilized.The multi-model average is themost commonly cited single estimate of future conditions,but higher-order moments representing thevariance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to assess extreme weather events at a level aimed to be appropriate for decisionmakers. Our analysis uses the distribution... Categories: Data, Project, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, 2013, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, All tags... LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Project, Publication, Regional & county planners, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, completed, environment, environment, publication, Fewer tags 1 2 »