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Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Private land owners, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, forests, upper midwest, Fewer tags Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables.... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Climate change, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Prairie Pothole Region, Presentation, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Vulnerability Assessment, avian conservation, climate models, completed, downscale climate models, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: A blind spot in climate change Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, environment, environment, migratory birds, upper midwest, vulnerability, Fewer tags One step ahead of the plow: Using cropland conversion risk to guide Sprague's Pipit conservation in the northern Great Plains Rapid expansion of cropland threatens grassland ecosystems across western North America and broad-scaleplanning can be a catalyst motivating individuals and agencies to accelerate conservation. Sprague’s Pipit(Anthus spragueii) is an imperiled grassland songbird whose population has been declining rapidly in recent decades.Here, we present a strategic framework for conservation of pipits and their habitat in the northern GreatPlains.We modeled pipit distribution across its million-km2 breeding range in Canada and the U.S.We describefactors shaping distribution, delineate population cores and assess vulnerability to future grassland losses. Pipitsselected landscapes with a high proportion of continuous grassland... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2010, 2011, 2011, 2012, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Informing Conservation Delivery, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Population and Habitat Evaluation, Private land owners, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, bird populations, completed, environment, environment, glacial, grassland brids, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Private land owners, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, forests, upper midwest, Fewer tags Publication: A Semi-Automated, Multi-Source Data Fusion Update of aWetland Inventory for East-Central Minnesota Comprehensive wetland inventories are an essential tool for wetland management, but developing and maintaining an inventory is expensive and technically challenging. Funding for these efforts has also been problematic. Here we describe a large-area application of a semi-automated processused to update a wetland inventory for east-central Minnesota. The original inventory for this area was the product of a laborintensive, manual photo-interpretation process. The present application incorporated high resolution, multi-spectral imagery from multiple seasons; high resolution elevation data derived from lidar; satellite radar imagery; and other GIS data. Map production combined image segmentation and random forest classification... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2010, 2011, 2011, 2012, All tags... 2012, 2013, 2014, 2014, Academics & scientific researchers, Conservation NGOs, Conservation Planning, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Map, Publication, Regional & county planners, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Wetlands, completed, environment, environment, maps, minnesota, upper midwest, wisconsin, Fewer tags Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Climate change, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Prairie Pothole Region, Presentation, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Vulnerability Assessment, avian conservation, climate models, completed, downscale climate models, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. Theclimatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodologicaldecisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climateprojections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM)performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecologicalmodels. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments onmean projected... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Climate change, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Prairie Pothole Region, Presentation, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Vulnerability Assessment, avian conservation, climate models, completed, downscale climate models, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Avoidance of unconventional oil wells and roads exacerbates habitat loss for grassland birds in the North American great plains Oil development in the Bakken shale region has increased rapidly as a result of new technologies and strongdemand for fossil fuel. This region also supports a particularly high density and diversity of grassland bird species,which are declining across North America. We examined grassland bird response to unconventional oilextraction sites (i.e. developed with hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques) and associatedroads in North Dakota. Our goal was to quantify the amount of habitat that was indirectly degraded by oil development,as evidenced by patterns of avoidance by birds. Grassland birds avoided areas within 150 m of roads(95% CI: 87–214 m), 267 m of single-bore well pads (95% CI: 157–378 m),... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, Bats, All tags... EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Monitoring, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Publication, Report, State agencies, Vulnerability Assessment, Wind Energy, completed, energy development, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from local populations to drive regional characteristics of population cycling and spatial synchronization. Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2013, 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags... Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, environment, environment, great lakes, upper midwest, vulnerability, Fewer tags Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Our goal was to predict road culvert passability, as defined by culvert outlet drop and outlet water velocity, for three fish swimming groups using remotely collected environmental variables that have been shown to influence the passability of road culverts.We generated four boosted regression tree models, one for road culvert outlet drop and one each for the three culvert outlet water velocities, and predicted the probability of impassable road culverts on low-order streams based on the models. Independent variables in the modelsincluded the upstream area draining to the culvert, slope at the culvert, stream segment gradient and stream reach gradient.Gradient of the stream segment was the most important predictor... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, 2014, 2014, Applications and Tools, Conservation NGOs, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Publication, Regional & county planners, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, fish barriers, fish passage, upper midwest, Fewer tags Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude,... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Private land owners, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, forests, upper midwest, Fewer tags Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Climate change, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Prairie Pothole Region, Presentation, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Vulnerability Assessment, avian conservation, climate models, completed, downscale climate models, environment, environment, migratory birds, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings A key challenge in aquatic restoration efforts is documenting locations where ecological connectivity is disrupted in water bodies that are dammed or crossed by roads (road crossings). To prioritize actions aimed at restoring connectivity, we argue that there is a need for systematic inventories of these potential barriers at regional and national scales. Here, we address this limitation for the North American Great Lakes basin by compiling the best available spatial data on the locations of dams and road crossings. Our spatial database documents 38 times as many road crossings as dams in the Great Lakes basin, and case studies indicate that, on average, only 36% of road crossings in the area are fully passable... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, 2014, 2014, Applications and Tools, Conservation NGOs, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Publication, Regional & county planners, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, fish barriers, fish passage, upper midwest, Fewer tags Publication: Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. Weconducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species’ range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2013, 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags... Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, environment, environment, great lakes, upper midwest, vulnerability, Fewer tags Publication: Enhancing ecosystem restoration efficiency through spatial and temporal coordination In many large ecosystems, conservation projects are selected by a diverse set of actors operating independently at spatial scales ranging from local to international. Although small-scale decision making can leverage local expert knowledge, it also may be an inefficient means of achieving large-scale objectives if piecemeal efforts are poorly coordinated. Here, we assess the value of coordinating efforts in both space and time to maximize the restoration of aquatic ecosystem connectivity. Habitat fragmentation is a leading driver of declining biodiversity and ecosystem services in rivers worldwide, and we simultaneously evaluate optimal barrier removal strategies for 661 tributary rivers of the Laurentian Great... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, 2014, 2014, Applications and Tools, Conservation NGOs, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Publication, Regional & county planners, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, fish barriers, fish passage, upper midwest, Fewer tags Precipitation and Soil Productivity Explain Effects of Grazing on Grassland Songbirds Temperate grassland ecosystems are imperiled globally, and habitat loss in North America has resulted in steepdeclines of endemic songbirds. Commercial livestock grazing is the primary land use in rangelands that supportremaining bird populations. Some conservationists suggest using livestock as “ecosystem engineers” to increasehabitat heterogeneity in rangelands because birds require a spectrum of sparse to dense vegetation cover.However, grazing effects remain poorly understood because local studies have not incorporated broad-scaleenvironmental constraints on herbaceous growth. We surveyed grassland birds across a region spanning26 500 km2 in northeast Montana, United States to assess how distribution and abundance... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2010, 2011, 2011, 2012, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Informing Conservation Delivery, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Population and Habitat Evaluation, Private land owners, Publication, Report, State agencies, Tribes, bird populations, completed, environment, environment, glacial, grassland brids, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags... 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Great Lakes, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Private land owners, Publication, Regional & county planners, Report, State agencies, Tribes, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, connectivity, environment, environment, forests, upper midwest, Fewer tags