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Impact of Drought on Southwestern Pronghorn Population Trends and Predicted Trajectories Climate Projection Data Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 subpopulations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Antilocapra americana, Arizona, Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Mammals, All tags... National CASC, New Mexico, Texas, Utah, Wildlife and Plants, climate change, density dependence, integrated Bayesian population models, large herbivores, population dynamics, rainfall effects, southwestern US, southwestern United States, southwestern United States, standardized precipitation index, ungulates, western Texas, Fewer tags Impact of Drought on Southwestern Pronghorn Population Trends and Predicted Trajectories Predictor Model Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 subpopulations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Antilocapra americana, Arizona, Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Mammals, All tags... National CASC, New Mexico, Texas, Utah, Wildlife and Plants, climate change, density dependence, integrated Bayesian population models, large herbivores, population dynamics, rainfall effects, southwestern US, southwestern United States, southwestern United States, standardized precipitation index, ungulates, western Texas, Fewer tags Key landscape connections under urban growth In partnership with South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative members, we assessed current and projected connectivity for three species that inhabit bottomland hardwoods throughout the southeastern US: black bear (Ursus americanus), Rafinesque’s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus rafinesquii), and timber rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus). For each species, we mapped important habitat connections between core patches of habitat using three different modeling approaches (Connectivity Analysis Toolkit (CAT), Circuitscape, and Linkage Mapper) that incorporated three types of resistance layers (expert opinion, niche modeling, and empirical data for the black bear only). The result was 21 sets of important connections,... Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Corynorhinus rafinesquii, Crotalus horridus, Landscapes, Mammals, Other Landscapes, All tags... Other Wildlife, Rafinesque's big-eared bat, Southeast CASC, Ursus americanus, Wildlife and Plants, black bear, habitat connectivity, timber rattlesnake, wildlife, Fewer tags Wisconsin Lake Temperature Metrics Stable Clarity It is well recognized that the climate is warming in response to anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Over the last decade, this has had a warming effect on lakes. Water clarity is also known to effect water temperature in lakes. What is unclear is how a warming climate might interact with changes in water clarity in lakes. As part of a project at the USGS Office of Water Information, several water clarity scenarios were simulated for lakes in Wisconsin to examine how changing water clarity interacts with climate change to affect lake temperatures at a broad scale. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBIC, durStrat, max_schmidt_stability, mean_schmidt_stability_JAS, mean_schmidt_stability_July,... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: 007, 012, Fish, Northeast CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, All tags... US, United States, WI, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, climate change, environment, hydrodynamic model, inlandWaters, lakes, limnology, water clarity, water quality, water temperature, Fewer tags Submerged aquatic vegetation and environmental data for coastal areas from Texas through Alabama, 2013-2015 This projects primary goal was to provide data on occurrence and abundance of SAV resources within the fresh to saline coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, and to relate these findings to key environmental variables. The data set provides the collected data from 2013, 2014 and 2015 on site location, discrete water quality, aquatic vegetation cover and biomass by species. The same 384 sites were collected each year, between June and September. This project was co-funded by the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and the Gulf Coast Prairie and the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. An alternate reference to this product can be found here. Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Alabama, Aquatic Biology, Climatology, Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana Coastal, All tags... Mississippi Coastal, Plants, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, South Central CASC, Texas, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Wildlife and Plants, aquatic vegetation, estuary, marsh, wetland ecosystems, wetlands, Fewer tags Seed biomass from shallow coastal water areas from Texas through Alabama, 2013-2015 This projects primary goal was to provide data on biomass of potential seed resources located within shallow water coastal areas within fresh to saline coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The data set provides biomass of seeds, by species or lowest practical taxon from 2013, 2014 and 2015 across 384 randomly selected sites located in shallow water coastal areas. The data were collected between June and September of each year. This data set can be merged with a dataset which reports submerged aquatic vegetation and environmental data collected at the same time (La Peyre et al. 2017; https://doi.org/10.5066/F7GH9G44). This project was co-funded by the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Alabama, Aquatic Biology, Climatology, Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana Coastal, All tags... Mississippi Coastal, Plants, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, South Central CASC, Texas, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Wildlife and Plants, aquatic vegetation, coastal ecosystems, coastal zones, submerged aquatic vegetation, waterfowl seed resources, wetland, wetland ecosystems, Fewer tags Projected species range maps over the next century This is the primary output dataset from the project to access the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation management strategies within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (HAVO). The key objective of this project was to combine climate projections from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and plant distribution models from Price et al. to produce a series of projected species range maps over the next century. Although the project focused on HAVO, the projected species range maps were created for seven of the main Hawaiian Islands. We stored the model output as rasters (.TIF files); additionally we created multi-panel maps of these rasters that are available separately. In summary, this dataset consists... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, Hawaiian Islands, Pacific Islands CASC, Plants, Wildlife and Plants, All tags... climate change, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, envelope model, environment, species distribution, species range, Fewer tags Data used to estimate and project the effects of climate and land use change on wetland densities in the Prairie Pothole Region These data were used to estimate models relating climate and land cover to wetland densities and develop projections under climate and land use change. Data for model estimation were derived from historical climate data, estimates of hydrological processes based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, National Wetlands Inventory, and the National Land Cover Database. Wetland densities were based on observations from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. Projected climate conditions were derived from ten Global Climate Models, and projected changes in land use were based on an economic model of the effects of climate on land use transitions. These data support the following publication: Sofaer,... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Montana, North Central CASC, North Dakota, Plants, Prairie Pothole Region, All tags... South Dakota, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Wildlife and Plants, effects of climate change, wetland ecosystems, Fewer tags ECHAM5.0 model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: 007, 012, Fish, Northeast CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, All tags... US, United States, WI, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, bass, climate change, environment, inlandWaters, largemouth bass, modeling, reservoirs, species distribution models, temperate lakes, thermal profiles, walleye, water, Fewer tags Model drivers: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: 007, 012, Fish, IA, IL, All tags... IN, Illinois, Illinois, Indiana, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa, MI, MN, Michigan, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota, Northeast CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, SD, South Dakota, South Dakota, US, United States, WI, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, climate change, environment, inlandWaters, modeling, reservoirs, temperate lakes, thermal profiles, water, Fewer tags Potential climate change impacts on fisher connectivity in the U.S. Northern Rockies Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary for species to adapt to our changing climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, we sought to: 1) understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of landscapes expected to serve as important connections for wildlife,... Categories: Data; Types: ArcGIS Map Package, Citation, Downloadable; Tags: Connectivity, Environment and Conservation, Fisher, Forests, Grasslands and Plains, All tags... Idaho, Landscapes, Mammals, Montana, North Central CASC, Rocky Mountains, United States, Wildlife and Plants, Wyoming, climate change, environment, environment, natural resource management, Fewer tags Spatial data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum... Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: 007, 012, Fish, IA, IL, All tags... IN, Illinois, Illinois, Indiana, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa, MI, MN, Michigan, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota, Northeast CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, SD, South Dakota, South Dakota, US, United States, WI, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, climate change, environment, inlandWaters, modeling, reservoirs, temperate lakes, thermal profiles, water, Fewer tags NLDAS model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: 007, 012, Fish, Northeast CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, All tags... US, United States, WI, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, bass, climate change, environment, inlandWaters, largemouth bass, modeling, reservoirs, species distribution models, temperate lakes, thermal profiles, walleye, water, Fewer tags Louisiana Waterthrush Latitude Index The Latitude is the average latitude of all 0.5 degree cells covering the eastern United States and southeastern Canada between longitude 60W and 102 W and latitude 24N and 49N, weighted by the unconditional probability of occupancy of Louisiana Waterthrush. Values given for the years 1997 to 2013. The Latitude_SE is the estimated standard error for the Latitude. Description of the data and analysis used to generate these values is given in: Clement, M.J., J.E. Hines, J.D. Nichols, K.L. Pardieck, D.J. Ziolkowski Jr. 2016. Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect. Global Change Biology 22:3273-3285. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13283. Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Birds, Breeding Bird Survey, Louisiana Waterthrush, Northeast CASC, Wildlife and Plants, All tags... climate change, occupancy, species latitude, Fewer tags Water and Air Temperature Throughout the Range of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout in Colorado and New Mexico; 2010-2015 V2 This data set characterizes the thermal regime in a number of Colorado and New Mexico streams that contain populations of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis) or have been considered potential restoration areas for the fish. The majority of these streams had no previous record of continual temperature records. When compared to Colorado water temperature criteria (Cold Tier 1), a portion of these populations appeared to be at risk from elevated stream temperatures, as indicated by exceedance of both acute and chronic water quality metrics. Summer water temperature profiles recorded at sites within current Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout habitat indicated that although the majority of currently... Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Air Temperature, Aquatic Biology, Birds, Colorado, Cutthroat Trout, All tags... Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fish, Land Use Change, Mammals, National CASC, New Mexico, Rio Grande, Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Colorado and New Mexico, Rio Grande Watershed, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Water Temperature, Wildlife and Plants, environment, geoscientificinformation, inlandWaters, Fewer tags FishTail, Indices and Supporting Data Characterizing the Current and Future Risk to Fish Habitat Degradation in the Northeast Climate Science Center Region Human impacts occurring throughout the Northeast and Midwest United States, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on the region’s streams which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Aquatic Biology, Aquatic habitats, Connecticut, Data Visualization & Tools, Delaware, All tags... Fish, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Land Use Change, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Northeast CASC, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools For Managers, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Vermont, Virginia, Washington D.C., Water, Coasts and Ice, West Virginia, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, climate change, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, drainage basins, habitat fragmentation, inlandWaters, land use and land cover, rivers, streams, water quality, Fewer tags Thermal metrics: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: 007, 012, Fish, IA, IL, All tags... IN, Illinois, Illinois, Indiana, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa, MI, MN, Michigan, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota, Northeast CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, SD, South Dakota, South Dakota, US, United States, WI, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, climate change, environment, inlandWaters, modeling, reservoirs, temperate lakes, thermal profiles, water, Fewer tags Extreme precipitation variability, forage quality and large herbivore diet selection in arid environments Nutritional ecology forms the interface between environmental variability and large herbivore behaviour, life history characteristics, and population dynamics. Forage conditions in arid and semi-arid regions are driven by unpredictable spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall. Diet selection by herbivores should be directed towards overcoming the most pressing nutritional limitation (i.e. energy, protein [nitrogen, N], moisture) within the constraints imposed by temporal and spatial variability in forage conditions. We investigated the influence of precipitation-induced shifts in forage nutritional quality and subsequent large herbivore responses across widely varying precipitation conditions in an arid environment.... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge, Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Land Use Change, Large herbivore foraging ecology, All tags... Mammals, National CASC, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Wildlife Biology, Wildlife and Plants, biota, foraging ecology, herbivore, ovis canadensis mexicana, primary production, ruminant, Fewer tags Migration Dates The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e., green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals, and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate, and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecology, Forage maturation hypothesis, Mammals, Migration, Mule deer, All tags... National CASC, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Phenology, Plants, Resource landscape, Ungulate, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Individual Variability in Surfing The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e., green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals, and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate, and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecology, Forage maturation hypothesis, Mammals, Migration, Mule deer, All tags... National CASC, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Phenology, Plants, Resource landscape, Ungulate, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags « 1 2 3 4 »