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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Nearshore bathymetry is a vital link that joins offshore water depths to coastal topography. Seamless water depth information is a critical input parameter for reliable storm surge models, enables the calculation of sediment budgets and is necessary baseline data for a range of coastal management decisions. Funding from the Western Alaska LCC resulted in the purchase of field equipment capable of shallow water measurements in rural settings, allowing collection of nearshore bathymetry around western Alaska communities. The resulting vector data shape files of nearshore bathymetry for Gambell, Savoonga, Golovin, Wales, Shismaref, and Hooper Bay are available by following the link below.
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This pilot project has initiated a long-term integrated modeling project that aims todevelop a dynamically linked model framework focused on climate driven changes tovegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost, and their interactions and feedbacks.This pilot phase has developed a conceptual framework for linking current state-of-thesciencemodels of ecosystem processes in Alaska – ALFRESCO, TEM, GIPL-1 – and theprimary processes of vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost that theysimulate. A framework that dynamically links these models has been defined and primaryinput datasets required by the models have been developed.
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Potential Evapotranspiration (PET): These data represent decadal mean totals of potential evapotranspiration estimates (mm). The file name specifies the decade the raster represents. For example, a file named pet_mean_mm_decadal_MPI_ECHAM5_A1B_annual_2000-2009.tif represents the decade spanning 2000-2009. The data were generated by using the Hamon equation and output from ECHAM5, a fifth generation general circulation model created by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg Germany. Data are at 2km x 2km resolution, and all data are stored in geotiffs. Calculations were performed using R 2.12.1 and 2.12.2 for Mac OS Leopard, and data were formatted into geotiffs using the raster and rgdal packages. Users...
The western coastline of Alaska spans over 10,000 km of diverse topography ranging from low lyingtundra in the north to sharp volcanic relief in the south. Included in this range are areas highly suscepti-ble to powerful storms which can cause coastal ooding, erosion and have many other negative e ects onthe environment and commercial e orts in the region. In order to better understand the multi-scale andinteractive physics of the deep ocean,continental shelf, near shore, and coast, a large unstructured domainhydrodynamic model is being developed using the nite element, free surface circulation code ADCIRC.This model is a high resolution, accurate, and robust computational model of Alaska’s coastal environmentcapable...
This project established a permafrost monitoring network in this region, providing a baseline of permafrost thermal regimes for assessing future change at a total of 26 automated monitoring stations. Stations have collected year-round temperature data from the active layer and the permafrost starting from the summer of 2011. The strong correspondence between spatial variability in permafrost thermal regime and an existing ecotype map allowed for the development of a map of ‘permafrost thermal classes’ for the broader study region. Further, the annual temperature data was used to calibrate models of soil thermal regimes as a function of climate, providing estimates of both historic and future permafrost thermal regimes...
The YKD is also home to the largest subsistence-based economy in Alaska. Yet, the low-lying landscape mosaic characterizing the YKD is at risk of massive change associated with projected sea level rise (SLR), increasing storm frequency and severity and permafrost degradation due to future climate change. Therefore, to conserve ecosystem services associated with the botanical and faunal richness in the YKD, management strategies in the region should not only be based on current ecosystem conditions, but also incorporate projected changes in landscape composition. The goal of this project is to provide managers and people living in the YKD, an assessment of the vulnerability of the landscape to future change and to...
This project resulted in an extensive mapping of coastal change along the entire coastline of the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC). The work provides important baseline information on the distribution and magnitude of landscape changes over the past 41 years. The extent of change to the coastline and to coastal features, such as spits, barrier islands, estuaries, tidal guts and lagoons, was known to be substantial in some areas along the coast (e.g., portions of the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta), although the extent of change along the full Bering Sea coast was not well documented. With this analysis, changes can be summarized for different land ownerships or other units to assess the extent of recent...
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These raster datasets represent historical stand age. The last four digits of the file name specifies the year represented by the raster. For example a file named Age_years_historical_1990.tif represents the year 1990. Cell values represent the age of vegetation in years since last fire, with zero (0) indicating burned area in that year. Files from years 1860-2006 use a variety of historical datasets for Boreal ALFRESCO model spin up and calibration to most closely match historical wildfire dynamics.
Understanding the causes of relative sea level rise requires knowledge of changes to both land (uplift and subsidence) and sea level. However, measurements of coastal uplift or subsidence are almost completely lacking in western Alaska. This project provided precise measurements of prioritized benchmarks across the Western Alaska geography, improving the network of published tidal benchmark elevations, allowing for tidal datum conversion in more places, and providing a necessary component for improved inundation studies in coastal communities and low-lying areas. The project’s map of vertical velocities (uplift/subsidence) of western Alaska (see ‘Final Project Report’ & ‘Vertical Velocity Map’, below) will be combined...
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Understanding the causes of relative sea level rise requires knowledge of changes to both land (uplift and subsidence) and sea level. However, measurements of coastal uplift or subsidence are almost completely lacking in western Alaska. This project provided precise measurements of prioritized benchmarks across the Western Alaska geography, improving the network of published tidal benchmark elevations, allowing for tidal datum conversion in more places, and providing a necessary component for improved inundation studies in coastal communities and low-lying areas. The project’s map of vertical velocities (uplift/subsidence) of western Alaska (see ‘Final Project Report’ & ‘Vertical Velocity Map’, below) will be combined...
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The primary purpose of this project is to acquire long-term data series ontemperature of selected lakes to support management of nursery habitat of lakerearingjuvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to climatechange. We adopted protocol developed by the National Park Service (NPS) toestablish moored all-season vertical temperature monitoring arrays in eight lakesof Kodiak, Togiak, and Alaska Peninsula/Becharof National Wildlife Refuges(NWR) in summer and fall 2011. We recorded lake temperature at a resolution of0.02°C on an hourly basis at various depth strata between lake surfaces and lakebottoms. Monitoring sites were visited annually or biannially to extract data andto service monitoring equipment....
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The Integrated Ecosystem Model is designed to help resource managers understandthe nature and expected rate of landscape change. Maps and other products generated by theIEM will illustrate how arctic and boreal landscapes are expected to alter due to climate-drivenchanges to vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost. The products will also provideresource managers with an understanding of the uncertainty in the expected outcomes.
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This raster, created in 2010, is output from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and represents simulated active layer thickness (ALT) in meters averaged across a decade. The file name specifies the decade the raster represents. For example, a file named ALT_1980_1989.tif represents the decade spanning 1980-1989. Cell values represent simulated maximum depth (in meters) of thaw penetration (for areas with permafrost) or frost penetration (for areas without permafrost). If the value of the cell is positive, the area is underlain by permafrost and the cell value specifies the depth of the seasonally thawing layer above permafrost. If the value of the cell is negative, the ground is only seasonally...
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The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska is a globally important region for numerousavian species including millions of migrating and nesting waterbirds. Climate change effectssuch as sea level rise and increased storm frequency and intensity have the potential to impactwaterbird populations and breeding habitat. In order to determine the potential impacts of theseclimate-mediated changes, we investigated both short-term and long-term impacts of stormsurges to geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Todetermine short-term impacts, we compared nest densities of geese and eiders in relation to themagnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000–2013. Additionally, we modeledgeese...
This project resulted in an extensive mapping of coastal change along the entire coastline of the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC). The work provides important baseline information on the distribution and magnitude of landscape changes over the past 41 years. The extent of change to the coastline and to coastal features, such as spits, barrier islands, estuaries, tidal guts and lagoons, was known to be substantial in some areas along the coast (e.g., portions of the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta), although the extent of change along the full Bering Sea coast was not well documented. With this analysis, changes can be summarized for different land ownerships or other units to assess the extent of recent...
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The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska is a globally important region for numerous avian species including millions of migrating and nesting waterbirds. Climate change effects such as sea level rise and increased storm frequency and intensity have the potential to impact waterbird populations and breeding habitat. In order to determine the potential impacts of these climate-mediated changes, we investigated both short-term and long-term impacts of storm surges to geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta.To do this, we used 29 years of ground-based surveys conducted as part of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s long-term waterbird monitoring program along with flood indices modeled...
The compilation of an accurate and contemporary digital shoreline for Alaska is an important step in understanding coastal processes and measuring changes in coastal storm characteristics. Consistent with efforts by the United States National Park Service (NPS) at Bering Land Bridge National Preserve (BELA) and Cape Krusenstern National Monument, high quality, defensible digital shoreline datasets are under development for select coastal parks in the State of Alaska. Near BELA, for the area from Cape Prince of Wales to Cape Espenberg, extended revised shoreline coverage can be produced using true color coastal shoreline imagery to update the boundary demarking the mean high water (MHW) shoreline, which represents...
The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project integrated existing models of vegetation, disturbance, and permafrost into one complete ecosystem model for the state of Alaska and Northwest Canada.The final synchronized model will integrate existing climate, vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost models to improve understanding of potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change. The project’s (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016) primary goal was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada....


map background search result map search result map Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Development and Application of an Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska Moored All-Season Vertical Temperature Arrays in Lakes on Kodiak, Togiak, and Alaska Peninsula/Becharof National Wildlife Refuges Webinar 2016: Networked Monitoring of Salmon Habitat Temperature: Two Case Studies from Southwestern Alaska IEM-CSC Factsheet with Supplement, 2015 Active Layer Thickness 2040 2049 Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model Pilot Year Final Report Potential Evapotranspiration 2040-2049: ECHAM5 - A1B Scenario Webinar (2015 Oct 14) Final Report: The Influence of Fall Storms on Nest Densities of Geese and Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska Historical Stand Age 1870-1879 Webinar (2015 Oct 14) Final Report: The Influence of Fall Storms on Nest Densities of Geese and Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska Moored All-Season Vertical Temperature Arrays in Lakes on Kodiak, Togiak, and Alaska Peninsula/Becharof National Wildlife Refuges Webinar 2016: Networked Monitoring of Salmon Habitat Temperature: Two Case Studies from Southwestern Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities IEM-CSC Factsheet with Supplement, 2015 Active Layer Thickness 2040 2049 Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model Pilot Year Final Report Potential Evapotranspiration 2040-2049: ECHAM5 - A1B Scenario Historical Stand Age 1870-1879