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Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change is altering fire regimes and post-fire conditions, contributing to relatively rapid transformation of landscapes across the western US. Studies are increasingly documenting post-fire vegetation transitions, particularly from forest to non-forest conditions or from sagebrush to invasive annual grasses. The prevalence of climate-driven, post-fire vegetation transitions is likely to increase in the future with major impacts on social–ecological systems. However, research and management communities have only recently focused attention on this emerging climate risk, and many knowledge gaps remain. We identify three key needs for advancing the management of post-fire vegetation transitions, including centering...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This ScienceBase space provides an array of USGS Series publications, journal articles, and other published references for the Gap Analysis Project (GAP). Information on GAP-related publications can also be found at: https://www.usgs.gov/core-science-systems/science-analytics-and-synthesis/gap/publications
Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Freshwater fish are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change globally but are generally understudied in tropical island ecosystems. Climate change is predicted to alter the intensity, frequency, and variability of extreme flow events on the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. These changes may impact Caribbean native and non-native stream ecosystems and biota complex ways. We compiled an extensive dataset of native and non-native fish assemblages collected at 119 sites across Puerto Rico from 2005 to 2015. We coupled these data with stream flow indices and dam height to understand how flow dynamics drive fish assemblage structure. Sixteen percent of sites contained exclusively non-native species, 34% contained...
(Abstract from Springer): There is increasing interest among scholars in producing information that is useful and usable to land and natural resource managers in a changing climate. This interest has prompted transitions from scientist- to stakeholder-driven or collaborative approaches to climate science. A common indicator of successful collaboration is whether stakeholders use the information resulting from the projects in which they are engaged. However, detailed examples of how stakeholders use climate information are relatively scarce in the literature, leading to a challenge in understanding what researchers can and should expect and plan for in terms of stakeholder use of research findings. Drawing on theoretical,...
The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining wildfires burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term this the “suppression bias” and use a simulation model to highlight how this bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation and climate change. We illustrate how attempting to suppress all wildfires necessarily means that fires will burn with more severe and less diverse ecological impacts, with burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from fuel accumulation or climate change. Over a human lifespan, the modeled impacts of the suppression bias exceed those...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases....
Climate change poses a pervasive threat to humans and wildlife by altering resource availability, changing co-occurrences, and directly or indirectly influencing human-wildlife interactions. For many wildlife agencies in North America, managing bears (Ursus spp.) and human-bear interactions is a priority, yet the direct and indirect effects of climate change are exacerbating management challenges. Understanding the underlying ecological drivers of bear responses to climate variability and change, and the implications for conflict, will be critical for maintaining human-bear coexistence in North America. We synthesized 120 articles that identified direct and indirect mechanisms by which climate variability and change...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species....
Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species’ range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species’ range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8175 observations of year-to-year change in...
A new satellite-derived low cloud retrieval reveals rich spatial texture and coherent space-time propagation in summertime California coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Throughout the region, CLC is greatest during May–September but has considerable monthly variability within this summer season. On average, June is cloudiest along the coast of southern California and northern Baja, Mexico, while July is cloudiest along northern California's coast. Over the course of the summer, the core of peak CLC migrates northward along coastal California, reaching its northernmost extent in late July/early August, then recedes while weakening. The timing and movement of the CLC climatological structure is related to the summer evolution...
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The broadly shared information needs for grassland managers in the North Central region to meet conservation goals in a changing climate are presented and ranked as highly relevant, somewhat relevant, or not relevant for federal, state, tribal, and non-governmental grassland-managing entities.
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This script applies topic modeling to analyze literature trends of climate impacts to inland fish based on the papers within the Fish and Climate Change Database (FiCli, DOI: 10.5066/P9973SMC). Sections 1-8 loaded the .bib file with all of the papers in the database and cleaned the text. This included combining the title/abstract/keywords, removing non-informative words, stemming words, removing punctuation, and forming phrases (ie. climate change to climate_change). Sections 9-10 divided the papers into discrete topics by identifying the ideal number of topics and then using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) modeling and Gibbs sampling to assign topics to each paper. Sections 11-17 analyzed the topic modeling results...
Abstract (from Springer): Biases in invasion science have led to a taxonomic focus on plants, particularly a subset of well-studied plants, and a geographic focus on invasions in Europe and North America. While broader, country-level geographic biases are well known, it is unclear whether these biases extend to a finer scale. This study assessed whether research sites for ten well-studied invasive plants in the U.S. are geographically biased relative to each species’ known invaded range. We compared the distribution, climate, specific geographic variables related to land type (public or private), proximity to roads and universities, and state noxious weed status of research sites reported in 735 scientific articles...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact.
Abstract (from Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences): Human-induced abiotic global environmental changes (GECs) and the spread of nonnative invasive species are rapidly altering ecosystems. Understanding the relative and interactive effects of invasion and GECs is critical for informing ecosystem adaptation and management, but this information has not been synthesized. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate effects of invasions, GECs, and their combined influences on native ecosystems. We found 458 cases from 95 published studies that reported individual and combined effects of invasions and a GEC stressor, which was most commonly warming, drought, or nitrogen addition. We calculated standardized...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Soil moisture is crucial for agriculture and hydrology, but its accurate prediction is challenging due to inadequate representation of various complex land surface processes and meteorological influences. In this research, we employ the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) framework, a specific architecture of deep learning networks that is effective in processing time series data, for predicting soil moisture. We have developed the Next Generation Interactive Soil Moisture Forecasting System to advance skillful soil moisture predictions at sub-seasonal timescales by leveraging advanced analytics and deep learning, with LSTM at its core. We combined the state-of-the-art climate model's (Community Earth System Model Version...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This dataset contains information from 674 publications (academic and grey literature) that assessed the effects of climate variability and climate change on the 15 ungulate species that are native to the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. The publication contains literature published between 1947 and September 2020. Information documented includes study location, climate variables assessed, and ungulate outcomes measured (e.g., life history characteristics, population demographics, migratory behavior).
map background search result map search result map Publications of the Gap Analysis Project Broadly Shared Information Needs Among Grassland Managers in the North Central Region Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models The Effects of Flow Extremes on Native and Non-Native Stream Fishes in Puerto Rico Catalogue of the literature assessing climate effects on ungulates in North America (1947-2020) Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Broadly Shared Information Needs Among Grassland Managers in the North Central Region Catalogue of the literature assessing climate effects on ungulates in North America (1947-2020) Publications of the Gap Analysis Project