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Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate change. A panel of experts in Hawaiian plant species assisted with the development of the model and verified its results. From the model, researchers were able to develop a vulnerability score for each plant species and identify categories of species with high, medium, and low vulnerability to climate change. This information...
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Scientists, planners, policy makers and other decision-makers in the South Central U.S. want to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate, precipitation, and land-use patterns on natural and cultural resources. Though the potential impacts of climate change can be modeled to help decision-makers plan for future conditions, these models rarely incorporate changes in land-use that may occur. Climate change and land-use change are often linked, as shifts in precipitation and temperature can alter patterns in human land-use activities, such as agriculture. This project sought to address this gap by developing new software tools that enable stakeholders to quickly develop custom, climate-sensitive land-use...
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One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. To help federal land managers address this need, the North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service to pioneer an approach for incorporating climate science and scenario planning into NPS planning processes, in particular Resource Stewardship Strategies (RSS). These strategies serve as a long-range planning tool for a national park unit to achieve its desired natural and cultural resource conditions, and are used to guide a park’s full spectrum of resource-specific management plans and day-to-day management activities. To support adaptation planning within...
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There are approximately 2,000 species of migratory birds worldwide, and over 300 of those can be found in North America. Changing climate conditions pose challenges for many migratory birds and their responses to these challenges can depend on their biology. To illustrate these impacts, a board game, called Migration Mismatch, was developed to help elementary school students understand these challenges. Migration Mismatch can help students build their understanding of biological processes and how species, birds in this case, interact with their environment. The game provides an interactive element to learning about adaptations of different bird species to environmental changes and provides a link to birds they may...
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Loko iʻa (Hawaiian fishponds) are an advanced, extensive form of aquaculture found nowhere else in the world. Loko iʻa practices are the result of over a thousand years of intergenerational knowledge, experimentation, and adaptation, and once produced over 2 million pounds of fish per year throughout the Hawaiian Islands. These fishponds provided a consistent and diverse supply of fish when ocean fishing was not possible or did not yield enough supply. In many ways, loko iʻa are foundational to traditional aquaculture in Hawai‘i and have the potential to provide food security that contributes to greater coastal community resilience and economic autonomy. Today, changes in coastal and hydrological processes, including...
The NC CASC works to communicate the science conducted at the center out to the North Central region through a variety of communication resources such as state specific fact sheets, newsletters, social media and webinars. To learn more about NC CASC communications, please visit the Communications Tools webpage.
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Natural and cultural resource managers across the country have begun to use a tool known as "scenario planning" to help prepare for climate change effects that may unfold in the future. In this process, scientific projections are used to identify different plausible, relevant, and divergent climate conditions for a particular area, and then through a participatory process, scientists and resource managers develop "scenarios" which describe the implications of these different conditions for resources and management. The North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service (NPS) Climate Change Response Program (CCRP) to encourage and support national parks in incorporating climate science and scenario...
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Drought and wildfire pose enormous threats to the integrity of natural resources that land managers are charged with protecting. Recent observations and modeling forecasts indicate that these stressors will likely produce catastrophic ecosystem transformations, or abrupt changes in the condition of plants, wildlife, and their habitats, in regions across the country in coming decades. In this project, researchers will bring together land managers who have experienced various degrees of ecosystem transformation (from not yet experiencing any changes to seeing large changes across the lands they manage) to share their perspectives on how to mitigate large-scale changes in land condition. The team will conduct surveys...
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PI-CASC regularly interacts with a diverse and extensive network of stakeholder organizations at federal, territory, state, county, and local levels across the Pacific Region, supporting communication and iterative problem solving between researchers, managers, and decision makers. In addition to these partnerships, PI-CASC has two important ongoing collaborative initiatives. Pacific Islands-Alaska CASC collaboration The PI-AK CASC collaboration is aimed at bringing together scientist and resource managers from the Pacific and Alaska regions to share insights on related climate adaptation challenges in Ridge-to-Reef (R2R) and Icefield-to-Ocean (I2O) ecosystems. Similarities in landscapes and communities in these...
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Multicultural representation is a stated goal of many global scientific assessment processes. These processes aim to mobilize a broader, more diverse knowledge base and increase legitimacy and inclusiveness of these assessment processes. Often, enhancing cultural diversity is encouraged through involvement of diverse expert teams and sources of knowledge in different languages. This project examines linguistic diversity, as one representation of cultural diversity, in the eight published assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
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The Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center (PI CASC) supports sustainability and climate adaptation in communities across the Pacific Islands by providing natural and cultural resource managers with access to actionable science specific to the region. PI CASC is hosted by the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (UHM) with consortium partners at the University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo (UHH) and the University of Guam (UOG). During the period of 2019 - 2024, the PI CASC consortium will strive to i) build resiliency and sustainability in ecosystems and communities to climate change impacts; ii) strive to develop the best actionable climate science, while maintaining a non-advocacy stance; and iii) apply the elements...
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Album caption: Panorama from Augutikada Peak to the hills north of the Kobuk. Stream in foreground is one on which Camp 21 was located. Alaska. n.d. No index card available.
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This dataset provides early estimates of 2021 exotic annual grasses (EAG) fractional cover predicted on May 3rd. We develop and release EAG fractional cover map with an emphasis on cheatgrass (Bromus tectrorum) but it also includes number of other species, i.e., Bromus arvensis L., Bromus briziformis, Bromus catharticus Vahl, Bromus commutatus, Bromus diandrus, Bromus hordeaceus L., Bromus japonicus, Bromus madritensis L., Bromus racemosus, Bromus rubens L., Bromus secalinus L., Bromus texensis (Shear) Hitchc., and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae. The dataset was generated leveraging field observations from Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring data (AIM) plots; Harmonized...
This data release includes 2016-2019 soil moisture timeseries for two drainage basins (“Arroyo Seco” and “Dunsmore Canyon”) that burned during the 2009 Station Fire in Los Angeles County, California, USA. The Arroyo Seco (0.01 km2) and Dunsmore Canyon (0.5 km2) drainages include two soil pits, one located near the drainage divide and another near the basin outlet. Following the naming convention established by Smith et al. (2019), we refer to the soil pits near the Arroyo Seco drainage divide and basin outlet as “AS1” and “AS3,” respectively. Similarly, we refer to the soil pits near the Dunsmore Canyon drainage divide and basin outlet as “DC1” and “DC3,” respectively. The coordinates of AS1 and AS3 are, respectively,...
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Inland fish populations are a crucial resource to humans and communities around the world. Recreational fishing throughout the United States, for example, provides important revenue to local and state economies; globally, inland fisheries are a vital food source for billions of people. Warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, however, are already causing significant changes to fish communities worldwide. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fish, and in more recent years, documentation of impacts has increased. However, the number of documented impacts of climate change on inland fish remains low. A comprehensive understanding of how climate change...
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The Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment project (an FY2012 NW CSC funded project), resulted in several datasets describing projected changes in climate, hydrology and vegetation for the 21st century over the Northwestern US. The raw data is available in netCDF format, which is a standard data file format for weather forecasting/climate change/GIS applications. However, the sheer size of these datasets and the specific file format (netCDF) for data access pose significant barriers to data access for many users. This is a particular challenge for many natural/cultural resource managers and others working on conservation efforts in the Pacific Northwest. The goal of this project was to increase...
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Forests are of tremendous ecological and economic importance. They provide natural places for recreation, clean drinking water, and important habitats for fish and wildlife. However, the warmer temperatures and harsher droughts in the west that are related to climate change are causing die-offs of many trees. Outbreaks of insects, like the mountain pine beetle, that kill trees are also more likely in warmer, drier conditions. To maintain healthy and functioning forest ecosystems, one action forest managers can take is to make management decisions that will help forests adapt to future climate change. However, adaptation is a process based on genetic change and few tools are currently available for managers to use...
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The goal of this project was to inform implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) Whitebark Pine (WBP) subcommittee’s “WBP Strategy” based on climate science and ecological forecasting. Project objectives were to: 1. Forecast ecosystem processes and WBP habitat suitability across the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) under alternative IPCC future scenarios; 2. Improve understanding of possible response to future climate by analyzing WBP/climate relationships in past millennia; 3. Develop WBP management alternatives; 4. Evaluate the alternatives under IPCC future scenarios in terms of WBP goals, ecosystem services, and costs of implementation; and 5. Draw recommendations for implementation...
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In southwestern Colorado, land managers anticipate the impacts of climate change to include higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk. Focusing on communities in southwestern Colorado’s San Juan and Gunnison river basins, this project will expand opportunities for scientists, land managers, and affected residents to identify actions that can support resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions. This project builds on the project “Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern...
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The sky island forests of the southwestern United States are one of the most diverse temperate forest ecosystems in the world, providing key habitat for migrating and residential species alike. Black bear, bighorn sheep, mule deer, and wild turkey are just a few of the species found in these isolated mountain ecosystems that rise out of the desert landscape. However, recent droughts have crippled these ecosystems, causing significant tree death. Climate predictions suggest that this region will only face hotter and drier conditions in the future, potentially stressing these ecosystems even further. Simple models predict that vegetation will move to cooler and wetter locations in response to this warming. However,...


map background search result map search result map Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Science and Forecasting to Inform Implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Management Strategy Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Integrated Scenarios Tools: Improving the Accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios Data Global Analysis of Trends in Projected and Documented Effects of Climate Change on Inland Fish Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use  Change on Ecological Processes Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Migration Mismatch: Bird Migration and Phenological Mismatching Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies Science Needs Assessment to Support Management of Loko Iʻa (Hawaiian Fishpond) Resources and Practices Critical to the Native Hawaiian Community Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire Supporting the National Park Service in Climate Adaptation Planning Examining Linguistic Diversity Metrics in Intergovernmental Ecosystem Assessments Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Hawai‘i, Mānoa (2019-2024) Soil moisture monitoring following the 2009 Station Fire, California, USA, 2016-2019 Regional Collaborations Communications Products Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, May 2021, v1 Panorama from Augutikada Peak to the hills north of the Kobuk. Alaska. n.d. Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Soil moisture monitoring following the 2009 Station Fire, California, USA, 2016-2019 Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Integrated Scenarios Tools: Improving the Accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios Data Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire Science Needs Assessment to Support Management of Loko Iʻa (Hawaiian Fishpond) Resources and Practices Critical to the Native Hawaiian Community Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use  Change on Ecological Processes Supporting the National Park Service in Climate Adaptation Planning Communications Products Science and Forecasting to Inform Implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Management Strategy Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, May 2021, v1 Panorama from Augutikada Peak to the hills north of the Kobuk. Alaska. n.d. Migration Mismatch: Bird Migration and Phenological Mismatching Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Hawai‘i, Mānoa (2019-2024) Regional Collaborations Global Analysis of Trends in Projected and Documented Effects of Climate Change on Inland Fish Examining Linguistic Diversity Metrics in Intergovernmental Ecosystem Assessments