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In the western U.S., rising temperatures and pronounced drought conditions pose significant challenges to public land managers. Widespread declines of multiple plant species have already been observed, providing insight into what the future could look like for vegetation in the region as conditions are projected to become warmer and drier. To understand how vulnerable western ecosystems are to drought, managers need to know which climatic and soil conditions cause habitats to change, and at what rate these changes may occur – important topics on which there is little available data. This project seeks to identify the vulnerability of habitats in the western U.S. to drought. Researchers will compare changes in...
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The scaled quail is an important species that indicates the overall health of the habitats they occupy in the arid Southwest. Some populations are declining, which may be linked to the long-term trend in warmer, drier conditions and reduced monsoonal rainfall across their range. It’s believed that temperature and humidity levels have been too high, reducing the survival of eggs and chicks. Climate models project decreasing rainfall and warming temperatures to continue for the region, so understanding this linkage is becoming increasingly critical. To address this need, researchers sought to measure the success of scaled quail nests at locations across their range, to determine if nest success is related to temperature,...
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Snowshoe hares are the primary food source of the federally threatened Canada lynx. In western Montana for example, snowshoe hare make up 96% of lynx diet. In fact, hares are critical players in forest ecosystems because most carnivores prey on them. The main way that snowshoe hares escape predation is through camouflage. In response to changes in day length, snowshoe hares molt seasonally, changing color from brown to white in the winter to blend in with the snowfall and hide from predators. However, due to shorter snow seasons caused by recent changes in climate, snowshoe hares are turning white before it snows, making them more visible to predators. Because 21 other species around the world also undergo these...
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Fisheries and aquatic habitats throughout the United States are in dire need of protection or restoration because human activities have resulted in severe degradation of those habitats. Further, future climatic changes will continue to affect human land-use, temperature, and water flows. Natural resource managers need to identify and prioritize habitats so that limited time and funding can be focused on habitats that are in most need of protection both now and in the future, based on projected climate changes. This project was comprised of a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey, Kansas State University, Michigan State University, Penn State University, the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the University...
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Climate change has emerged as a key environmental concern of the 21st century and a major challenge for land and wildlife managers. Although scientists have made tremendous progress in predicting the impact of climate change on a regional and global scale, drilling down such projections to a locally applicable form has been difficult. A major project of the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center (SBSC), funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), drew on the work of an interdisciplinary team of scientists to help close the gap between theory and practical application in the arid southwestern U.S. Climate change in this region is predicted to be extreme,...
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In collaboration with the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, this project advanced efforts to understand and accommodate uncertainty by applying to Missouri River sturgeon population dynamics the tools of multi-scale climate models and hierarchical Bayesian modeling frameworks, linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. While a complete climate prediction may be intractable at this time -- for instance, the climate projections may not incorporate land use changes and solar fluctuations into the boundary conditions -- we proposed a framework to quantify known uncertainty that is also flexible enough to adapt to advances in climate predictions. A key advantage of the...
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Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in walleye and other native fishes, and worsening water quality due to increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation, has prompted concern among regional anglers who may abandon certain fisheries as these changes occur. Understanding how changes in climate may affect glacial lakes region fishes, and how fishery managers...
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The Northeast coast of the United States is an important area for a variety of native nesting seabirds including Common, Least, Arctic, and the federally endangered Roseate terns. These species migrate to the Northeast region to take advantage of highly productive waters during late spring and early summer to breed and raise their young. During this period, adults are highly dependent on local prey resources to support chick growth and survival. Long-term diet studies show terns are highly dependent on a few select prey groups, potentially making seabird populations sensitive to changes in prey distribution. This sensitivity is particularly important as many prey species are shifting to new areas in response to...
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Freshwater ecosystems support the health and well-being of human life and society through a myriad of services. Intact freshwater biodiversity maintains the health of freshwater ecosystems and the benefits they provide. However, staggering rates of freshwater biodiversity loss and declining ecological function of freshwater ecosystems threaten these natural benefits and human life. This project supports international collaborations to increase awareness and relevant and actionable biodiversity information to support decision makers address freshwater biodiversity loss.
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The USGS and South Atlantic LCC worked with stakeholders and managers across the Southeast to identify and assess landscape-level strategies for conserving multiple species. These strategies incorporated predictions from downscaled climate models, sea level rise, and changes to aquatic and terrestrial habitats.
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
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There is growing interest in the facilitated movement of plants as a means of conserving or restoring species and habitats, as climate conditions and management goals change. For example, plants might be relocated to support pollinator conservation or the restoration of prairies. Some land managers, in an effort to be proactive in the face of changing environmental conditions, are also considering relocating plants to sites that are considered more similar to anticipated future conditions. However, moving plants can be ecologically and economically risky. It’s possible that pests, pathogens, or contaminant weeds can be inadvertently moved along with the target plant material. In 2016, the noxious weed Palmer amaranth...
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Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall demand for maple syrup has been rapidly rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Yet because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as the region’s climate changes. The distribution of sugar maple could move north into Canada and the sap flow season may become shorter in the future. Not only could these changes affect producers and consumers...
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This study set out to answer the question: “What data and modeling frameworks are needed to provide scientists reliable, climate-informed, water temperature estimates for freshwater ecosystems that can assist watershed management decision making?” To accomplish this, the study gathered existing stream temperature data, identified data gaps, deployed stream temperature monitoring devices, and developed and tested a stream temperature model that could be regionalized across the Northeast domain. We partnered with another funded project team, led by Jana Stewart at WI USGS to collect data from over 10,000 locations across the climate science center domain. This collection effort aided in identifying data gaps where...
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Extreme events not only affect people but can have detrimental impacts on natural resources, such as fish and freshwater habitats. Impacts of extreme events, like hurricanes, tornadoes, and extreme flooding, have immediate consequences, but also have the ability to alter habitats and animals far in the future by providing opportunities for exotic species to colonize new areas. Some fish communities in streams, rivers, and lakes may have the natural ability to resist the long-term impacts of extreme weather events. In this project, researchers will investigate the ability of Caribbean fish assemblages in Puerto Rico, which have both economic and cultural importance, to resist the impacts of extreme weather events....
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The Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) develops scientific information and tools to help managers address climate variability and climate change related to impacts on land, water, fish and wildlife, nearshore, coastal and cultural heritage resources. The NE CASC is hosted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMASS) with consortium partners College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Cornell University, Michigan State University, University of Missouri, University of Vermont, University of Wisconsin, Woodwell Climate Research Center and the United States Forest Service Northern Research Station. The NE CASC consortium addresses regional science priorities of the Department of the...
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The nursery industry grows, markets, and sells plants for ecological restoration as well as urban and suburban landscaping. The Northeast U.S. is a patchwork of small, mostly private land holdings, where the choices of nursery professionals influence the composition of current and future ecosystems. Unfortunately, the nursery industry focuses predominantly on non-native plants. This approach is ecologically detrimental because it fails to support range-shifting native species - a critical need for climate adaptation - and can result in the introduction of invasive species that harm ecosystems. An alternative approach that would support climate-smart landscaping and restoration, while reducing the introduction of...
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The code repository for the quality controll processing, data creation, modelling, and mapping or trend estimation is at https://github.com/USFWS/ACP-Mapping. The full history of the quality control process and issues is documented in R code file in this repository. Please report any addition errors to https://github.com/USFWS/ACP-Mapping/issues and follow update of this repositiry to keep track of new errors and updates to data sets, maps, or trend estimates.
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The Arctic Coastal Plain Aerial Breeding Pair Survey provides data on distribution, abundance, and trend of 33 bird species that nest in northern Alaska. The survey has been conducted in its current form annually since 2007. Methods follow the standard operating procedures for the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. Primary uses of the survey data are to evaluate recovery status of Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri) and Steller’s Eider (Polysticta stelleri), as well as monitor species of conservation concern including Lesser Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens caerulescens), Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii), Red-throated Loon (G. stellata), and Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). Survey data are...
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This collection of files contains the reports that were produced when the raw data were quality-checked against the defined standards in the “Transcribed Data Dictionary” using the “GreenLight” function of the R Package “AKaerial.” The QC log files document the quality control process, data standards, and what changes (if any) were made in the QC data compared to the raw data. Each log file was named following the same file naming conventions:SSS_YYYY_QCLog_OOOO_yyyy-mm-dd, where;YKD = Duck data, YKG = Goose data or YYY=Year, OOOO = observer’s first initial and last name,yyyy-mm-dd = year, month, and day the AKaerial.R (“GreenLight”) function in was most recently executed
map background search result map search result map Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival SERAP: Decision Support for Stakeholders and Managers Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Relocating Plants for Conservation and Restoration: Developing a Risk Assessment Framework Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) Seabird Diets in a Warming Climate: An Assessment of the Relationships of Terns (Sterna sp.) and their Prey in the Northern Breeding Range Alaska Arctic Coastal Plain Breeding Waterbird Aerial Survey 2007-Present The Role of Plant Nurseries in Climate-Smart Landscaping and Ecological Restoration Freshwater Biodiversity with Global Change Arctic Coastal Plain Aerial Survey Github Code Repository Alaska Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Aerial Survey Raw Data Quality Reports Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Alaska Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Aerial Survey Raw Data Quality Reports Alaska Arctic Coastal Plain Breeding Waterbird Aerial Survey 2007-Present Arctic Coastal Plain Aerial Survey Github Code Repository SERAP: Decision Support for Stakeholders and Managers Seabird Diets in a Warming Climate: An Assessment of the Relationships of Terns (Sterna sp.) and their Prey in the Northern Breeding Range Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Relocating Plants for Conservation and Restoration: Developing a Risk Assessment Framework The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival The Role of Plant Nurseries in Climate-Smart Landscaping and Ecological Restoration Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Freshwater Biodiversity with Global Change