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We will develop a set of linked models to help predict the effects of climate change on rivers and endangered species. These will include watershed- and reach-scale models to predict streamflow, water temperatures, and other fish habitat metrics under various climatic scenarios for the reaches used by species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), plus a combined bioenergetics and life-cycle model (to be done by the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS]) to assess the impact of these factors on fish growth, reproduction, and survival. We propose to test the model framework at a site on the Methow River, Washington, to explore additional opportunities for collaboration and model development.
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Project involves analyzing datasets using two measures: Spatial similarity of the distributed precipitation and temperature fields of the study datasets Implications on hydrologic modeling We will then provide guidance on the choice of datasets for statistical downscaling of GCM outputs used in different types of scale-dependent planning assessments. We will evaluate these differences from a hydrological standpoint at specific Reclamation basins: Animas at Durango, Colorado; Snake at Heise, Idaho; Sacramento at Redding, California; Salt at Chrysotile, Arizona; Yellowstone River at Billings, Montana; and Colorado River at Lees Ferry Utah and Arizona. The analysis will indicate whether the choice of forcing a...
We will identify regional and area office partners within Reclamation to use available downscaled climate projections, translate projections into biological forecasts for projected changes to populations and habitat, conduct probabilistic scenario planning, and recommend management actions. The research will also identify strategic basins to work in, find personnel to conduct the work, and locate external funding and in-kind services (e.g., non-governmental organizations, State agencies, and other Federal agencies). We will identify fisheries population and fish physiology effects as well as invasive species effects from climate change in Reclamation-managed systems. We will concentrate on effects on species of...
In 2007, Reclamation teamed with Santa Clara University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to develop and serve a publically available archive containing projections of monthly temperature and precipitation for the contiguous United States. Using a technique called Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD), these projections are developed by processing global climate model (GCM) outputs in two ways: first to correct GCM biases, and second to translate conditions from GCM to finer spatial resolution. The archive has served requests from roughly 800 users, supporting various planning and research activities. Reclamation has used the archive contents in numerous studies to characterize future supplies...
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We will investigate methods to assess the effects of climate change on reservoir sedimentation, which affects the life expectancy of a reservoir. Such impacts, in conjunction with climate change impacts on reservoir inflow patterns, could affect future operations and water delivery reliability. This research will parallel a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) study to provide a period change climate and hydrologic analysis in selected study basins. Reclamation reservoir selections are (a) Bighorn Lake in Montana and Wyoming and (b) Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico. USACE reservoir selections are (a) Garrison Reservoir in North Dakota and (b) Cochiti Reservoir in New Mexico. Both research projects will...
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An understanding of how fish respond to changes in their environment is necessary when restoring habitat to support native fish and to predict future species assemblages, likely outcomes for important native and non-native species, and the potential for invasion. We will review existing literature and summarize the temperature-dependent physiological tolerances and metabolic responses of fish resident in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (SSJD) to water quality parameters likely to be impacted by water management facilities and global climate change. The review will cover 58 species of fish (23 native). Each species account will be organized into adult, juvenile, larval, and egg tolerances. The water quality variables...
The Salt Lake City, Utah, region has a climate record dating from the mid-1800s that can be used to calibrate a tree ring record to climate and streamflows. A number of good candidate species for tree ring analysis include indigenous coniferous species that are signature species in tree ring analysis because their growth is sensitive to drought. However, these species represent different habitats. We will conduct controlled field studies to define the relationship between a suite of tree species native to the Wasatch range and drought stress and air temperature as well as to use tree ring data to understand and explain paleoclimate drought cycles and reconstruct streamflows in an innovative way. The research...
Climate change is expected to impact Reclamation’s water systems in various ways, which may trigger interest in various adaptation strategies that involve changed management of (e.g., conservation, regulation, and market-based water trading). Coupled hydrologic and economic models are essential tools for addressing questions of where and when supply management and/or demand management approaches are most appropriate for meeting the challenges of global climate change. We will build on the S&T Program research project 5330, Boise Valley spatial water allocation modeling, which combined a conjunctive groundwater model with a partial equilibrium economic model. This research will identify water management options...
Consistent with sound business practice and the Agency’s stewardship responsibilities, Reclamation is continuously striving to identify and apply advanced approaches allowing the operation of Reclamation hydropower plants in a more efficient manner—generating more electricity per acre-foot of water released. One of the challenges of efficient hydropower generation is the matter of setting short-term generation schedules from multiple sources. On at least an hourly basis, Reclamation’s power plant operators must determine the best combination of generator units to bring online, and at what levels, given the existing demand for electricity and other operating costs and constraints. This is known as the economic dispatch...
Several nonparametric methods are gaining popularity in their use alongside traditional parametric approaches for stochastic simulation of hydrologic variables. However, these stochastic simulations, and the simulation statistics using the nonparametric methods are strongly impacted by two factors: (1) sample size of the historical data, and (2) number of simulations. Theory is well established in traditional parametric statistics to quantify the role of sample and simulation sizes on hydrologic simulation uncertainty. But, there has not been much research in the data-driven nonparametric realm. This research will evaluate the power and uncertainty associated with sample size and number of simulations in nonparametric...
This activity will result in: A white paper listing: (a) Reclamation situations where groundwater interactions with surface water have been or are being assessed, (b) challenges with assessing such interactions under a changing climate, and (c) modeling options for assessing such interactions in a changing climate (highlighting applications of these various model options as conducted by Reclamation or other entities). Establishment of a Groundwater Hydrology Work Group comprised of academics, Water Research Institutes, and Federal agencies to translate white paper issues into a technology development strategy Model intercomparison to explore management-hydrology model integration with simple/complex hydrology...
Given that Reclamation is conducting multiple long-term water resources assessments at any given time within each of its regions, and given that climate change now must be addressed in such documentation efforts, it is in Reclamation’s interests to have a consistent portrayal of climate change literature within each of these documents. Further, Reclamation can alleviate the burden on project-specific scoping efforts to include development of such narratives by instead developing and maintaining region-applicable narratives. Fiscal year (FY) 2010 involved releasing the first version of “Literature Synthesis on Climate Change Implications for Reclamation’s Water Resources” (pdf). FY 2011 involves completing and releasing...
Flood safety is of the utmost concern for water resources management agencies charged with operating and maintaining reservoir systems. Risk evaluations guide design of infrastructure alterations or lead to potential changes in operations. Changes in climate may change the risk due to floods and therefore decisions to alter infrastructure with a life span of decades or longer may benefit from the use of climate projections as opposed to use of only historical observations. This effort involves developing and demonstrating a framework that supports flood frequency evaluation within the context of downscaled climate projections, from simulated past to projected future. The framework includes three core elements:...
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Non-dynamically generated datasets are often rich with scenarios, allowing planners to characterize climate projection uncertainty and plan assumptions within that uncertainty. However, questions remain about the validity of downscaled data produced by such non-dynamical (statistical) methods, particularly when land-atmosphere interactions are important for defining local climate and when non-dynamical methods assume such interactions will remain static even as larger scale climate changes might influence such interactions (U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] Circular 1331). Water agencies will continue to face decisions about which downscaled data to use and implicitly which downscaling method and spatial resolution...
Riparian habitats along regulated rivers are important providers of native insects to pollinate nearby irrigated orchards and crop fields. Commercially managed bees are suffering serious declines due to introduced parasites and pathogens (National Academy of Sciences [NAS] 2007), increasing the importance of native pollinators in agricultural production (Winfree et al. 2007). The populations of native pollinators relying on riparian habitats, in turn, are tightly coupled to the status of riparian plants and on the processes that ensure plant population persistence. Both of these factors are strongly linked to river hydrology. We will conduct a literature review, examine the potential consequences of climate-induced...
    map background search result map search result map Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Capacity and Water Supply Reliability Back to the Future: Innovative Tree Ring Analysis to Reconstruct Paleoclimate and Streamflows for Improved Urban Water Planning Under Climate Change - BOR Project, FY2011 Sensitivity of Hydrologic Impacts Assessment to Downscaling Methodology and Spatial Resolution - BOR Project, FY2011 Evaluating Climate-Induced Runoff and Temperature Change on Stream Habitat Metrics for Endangered or Threatened Fish - BOR Project FY2011 Physiological Tolerances of Fishes of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California - BOR Project, FY2011 Understanding How Different Versions of Distributed Historical Weather Data Affect Hydrologic Model Calibration and Climate Projections Downscaling - BOR Project, FY2011 Physiological Tolerances of Fishes of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California - BOR Project, FY2011 Understanding How Different Versions of Distributed Historical Weather Data Affect Hydrologic Model Calibration and Climate Projections Downscaling - BOR Project, FY2011 Evaluating Climate-Induced Runoff and Temperature Change on Stream Habitat Metrics for Endangered or Threatened Fish - BOR Project FY2011 Sensitivity of Hydrologic Impacts Assessment to Downscaling Methodology and Spatial Resolution - BOR Project, FY2011 Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Capacity and Water Supply Reliability