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This data release contains the two intermediary variables (processed lake temperature prediction feather files and bioenergetic metrics CSV), model code in R script used to produce the outputs, and bioenergetics model prediction feather files for a set of fish bioenergetics models under current and future temperature conditions at 337 large lakes.
Assessment of species’ vulnerability to climate change has been limited by mismatch between coarse macroclimate data and the fine scales at which species select habitat. Habitat mediates climate conditions, and fine-scale habitat features may permit species to exploit favourable microclimates, but habitat preferences can also constrain their ability to do so. We leveraged fine-resolution models of near-surface temperature and humidity in grasslands to understand how microclimates affect climatic exposure and demographics in a grassland bird community. We asked: (i) Do species select favourable nest-site microclimates? (ii) Do habitat preferences limit the ability of species to access microclimates? (iii) What are...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
In order to initiate the actionable science needed to support effective conservation under climate change, we engaged researchers and other experts in refining and prioritizing a climate adaptation research agenda that was originally developed via dialogue with natural resource managers. Experts identified topics that were missing or underrepresented in an initial practitioner-defined list of science topics, and then scored topics according to the state of knowledge, the feasibility of research, and the potential that research might change management. Our process capitalizes on the complementarity between the expertise of practitioners and the expertise of researchers and other non-practitioners, improves the transparency...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate stocking success of Walleye Sander vitreus in lakes and reservoirs across the Midwestern United States to inform stocking practices for state agencies. Demand for Walleye stocking may increase if climate change limits the potential for natural recruitment in lakes. Consequently, the strategic distribution of Walleye stocking may maximize fishing opportunities. Methods We synthesized data from 2226 Walleye fry and fingerling stocking events on 653 lakes in the Midwestern United States and used random forest algorithms and mixed‐effects linear models to identify abiotic and biotic factors related to Walleye stocking success. Result Latitude and year explained...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Culture is an important part of climate adaptation, because “adapting” implies actions taken by humans to conserve key systems and values. Science is also a critical part of adaptation, because the need and viability of actions depends on our understanding of ecosystem function and process. Indigenous or traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is both culture and long-term place-based science. TEK, therefore, supports tribal adaptation by both framing and contextualizing climate adaptation research and action. TEK also contributes to tribally-centered understandings of ecological systems and climate change. Incorporating TEK into climate adaptation increases the likelihood that adaptation strategies will be implementable,...
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Project Overview Wetlands in forested areas of the Upper Midwest provide vital habitat for amphibians, but changing patterns of drying under climate change can disrupt species reproduction and growth. Researchers supported by this Midwest CASC project will use water depth sensor data, machine learning models, and long-term amphibian surveys to predict wet and dry periods for wetlands under future climate scenarios. Results will offer actionable information for State, Federal, and Tribal partners to prioritize wetland and species conservation efforts. Public Summary Across the Upper Midwest, many wetlands in forested areas are ephemeral, meaning they dry up periodically. These drying periods benefit many amphibian...
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The Midwest region faces unique challenges from climate change that affect forests, grasslands, lakes, rivers, wetlands, and the services and cultural values these ecosystems provide. These changes also occur in a wide range of land types and cultural settings, such as on and off Tribal reservation and treaty-ceded land, within and around towns and cities, and in farms and managed forests. The goal of adaptation science is to identify, test, and demonstrate management strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change. This project will advance the creation and distribution of adaptation science that addresses the natural resource needs of the Midwest through: 1) a synthesis project and research symposium that...
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Project Overview Climate risks, including floods and heatwaves, disproportionately impact under-resourced communities in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, but gaps in data, policy, and collaboration in the region can hinder effective climate adaptation. Researchers supported by this Midwest CASC project will work with communities to identify flood-vulnerable areas, evaluate various nature-based solutions, and develop a climate action plan, providing tools and data to guide community resilience through equitable resource management, funding, and policy. Project Summary In the Midwest, climate risks such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves are expected to worsen, disproportionately affecting at-risk and under-resourced...
Traditional conservation efforts have centred on safeguarding individual species, but these strategies have limitations in a world where entire ecosystems are rapidly changing. Ecosystem conservation can maintain critical ecological functions, but often lacks the detail necessary for the effective conservation of threatened or endangered species. The conservation of such species is mandated by policies and remains a dominant focus of natural resource management. In this Perspective, we propose that assemblage-level conservation targeting groups of taxonomically related or functionally similar species can bridge the gap between species and ecosystems and help to address global biodiversity loss. This approach has...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change is altering the thermal habitats of freshwater fish species. We analyze modeled daily temperature profiles from 12,688 lakes in the US to track changes in thermal habitat of 60 lake fish species from different thermal guilds during 1980-2021. We quantify changes in each species’ preferred days, defined as the number of days per year when a lake contains the species’ preferred temperature. We find that cooler-water species are losing preferred days more rapidly than warmer-water species are gaining them. This asymmetric impact cannot be attributed to differences in geographic distribution among species; instead, it is linked to the seasonal dynamics of lake temperatures and increased thermal homogenization...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This data release contains a CSV dataset of the likelihood of sapling recruitment based on abundance of seedlings height classes and other stand and site-level factors. Maps accompany the CSV on how the relationship between temperature and relative survival and seedling/sapling abundance varies by size class for ten tree species in the northeastern and midwestern USA, and can be used to highlight areas where survival prospects are relatively better or worse for seedlings of different sizes.
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Project Overview In the Midwest, climate change is forcing birds to shift their ranges, raising concerns about how well protected areas provide refuge for vulnerable bird species. Researchers supported by this Midwest CASC project will use two decades of bird monitoring data to evaluate how protected areas in the Upper Great Lakes region support birds now and in the future under changing climate and land-use conditions. The project will produce maps that identify vulnerable species and critical areas for their protection that agencies and land managers can use to prioritize conservation action in the region. Public Summary Throughout the Midwest, climate change is causing rising temperatures and extreme weather,...
This is an update to a previously archived data set, which is available at https://doi.org/10.13020/4zwr-t415. Here, additional sites for 2021, and additional data for 2022 and 2023 are given. There will be no further updates. 570 station occupations occurred along Lake Superior’s southwest shoreline where data were collected from Lake Superior and its watershed in the region generally between Duluth-Superior and Ashland, WI. Parameters include forms of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, along with total suspended solids, chlorophyll, and phycocyanin.


    map background search result map search result map Assessing and Advancing Different Ways of Knowing in Climate Adaptation in the Midwest Climate-Driven Changes to Forested Wetland Inundation Dynamics: Implications for Frogs and Toads Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Risk Reduction and Community Resilience in the Upper Mississippi River Basin Identifying Past and Future Climate Change Refugia for Midwestern Birds Bioenergetics Models of Freshwater Precids and Centrarchids in 337 lakes Under Predicted Future Climate Conditions Across the Midwest from 2000-2100 Biogeochemistry of Southwestern Lake Superior and Watershed, 2021-2023 Abundance Within and Ratios Between Successive Juvenile Tree Size Classes based on Mean Annual Temperature for Ten Common Tree Species in the Northeastern and Midwestern USA from 2012-2021 Collaborative Synthesis on Traditional Ecological Knowledge & Climate Adaptation in the Midwest Biogeochemistry of Southwestern Lake Superior and Watershed, 2021-2023 Climate-Driven Changes to Forested Wetland Inundation Dynamics: Implications for Frogs and Toads Identifying Past and Future Climate Change Refugia for Midwestern Birds Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Risk Reduction and Community Resilience in the Upper Mississippi River Basin Assessing and Advancing Different Ways of Knowing in Climate Adaptation in the Midwest Collaborative Synthesis on Traditional Ecological Knowledge & Climate Adaptation in the Midwest Bioenergetics Models of Freshwater Precids and Centrarchids in 337 lakes Under Predicted Future Climate Conditions Across the Midwest from 2000-2100 Abundance Within and Ratios Between Successive Juvenile Tree Size Classes based on Mean Annual Temperature for Ten Common Tree Species in the Northeastern and Midwestern USA from 2012-2021