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Streamflow in the Colorado River is heavily influenced by high-elevation snowpack. Warming temperatures in spring can reduce snow-fed flows, with serious implications for the water supplies that support communities and wildlife. While it is already well-known that precipitation has a significant influence on river flow, recent observations suggest that temperature and the amount of water in soil may also influence streamflow. In the face of a changing climate, it is important that resource managers understand how factors such as changing temperatures and precipitation will affect this vital water source. To address this need, researchers are examining records of streamflow, temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation...
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Scientific information about the risks of climate change to important natural and cultural resources is crucial for developing and implementing climate adaptation plans and management actions. Tools that incorporate both science and expert knowledge on adaptation actions can greatly benefit municipal, regional, and other decision makers, as they develop and implement their adaptation plans. In 2018, EcoAdapt created the Climate Change Adaptation Certification Tool, which was designed to support the implementation of climate adaptation plans. Discussions with the Washington State Interagency Climate Adaptation Network have confirmed that this tool was ideal for supporting decision making in the natural and cultural...
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Water management in the middle portion of the Rio Grande Basin (between Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico and Presidio, Texas) is challenging because water demand has continued to increase over time despite limited river water and dropping groundwater levels. While urban and agricultural users can cope with frequent droughts by using a combination of river water and pumping groundwater, little to no water reaches living river ecosystems in this region. Improving this situation requires a good understanding of river water and groundwater availability, now and in the future, as well as advantages and disadvantages of water management options to sustain these ecosystems. In particular, there is a need to determine...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need specific management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that some locations that species inhabit today will remain suitable over time and should be protected. The climate conditions at those locations will continue to be good enough for species to survive and breed successfully and are referred to as climate refugia. Another management strategy is based on the idea that species will need to shift across the landscape to track suitable conditions and reach climate refugia locations as climate and land uses change over time. The more opportunities we can give species to safely...
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Coastal ecosystems are uniquely vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of freshwater discharge. With a warming climate, changes in freshwater discharge into estuaries will interact with rising sea levels. Coastal natural resource managers need guidance on the potential impacts and vulnerabilities to better manage the risks to aquatic species and habitats and to mitigate species decline or collapse resulting from changes in freshwater availability. This project will inform resource managers on the development of management plans that protect coastal ecosystems and species while accounting for changes in freshwater availability under climate uncertainty. To achieve this, the proposed project has three objectives....
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Global concern of an “insect apocalypse” is fueling demand for large-scale, long-term studies of insect population dynamics. Butterflies associated with open habitat, like prairies and grasslands, have long been identified as species of concern in the Midwest. The iconic monarch butterfly, which serves as a flagship for both migration and insect conservation, is one such species of conservation concern and is currently under consideration for federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. Recent analyses suggest that common, widespread species may also be declining. Yet robust evidence for general declines is patchy and the causes are difficult to discern. Understanding the relative importance of climate, land...
Remote sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET) can be derived using various methods, from soil moisture accounting to vegetation-index based approaches to simple and complex surface energy balance techniques. Due to the complexity of fully representing and parameterizing ET sub-processes, different models tend to diverge in their estimations. However, most models appear to provide reasonable estimations that can meet user requirements for seasonal water use estimation and drought monitoring. One such model is the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop). This study presents a formulation of the SSEBop model using the psychrometric principle for vapor pressure/relative humidity measurements where the...
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The forests of the Northeastern United States are home to some of the greatest diversity of nesting songbirds in the country. Climate change, shifts in natural disturbance regimes, and invasive species pose threats to forest habitats and bird species in the northeastern United States and represent major challenges to natural resource managers. Although broad adaptation approaches have been suggested for sustaining forested habitats under global change, it is unclear how effective the implementation of these strategies at local and regional scales will be for maintaining habitat conditions for a broad suite of forest-dependent bird species over time. Moreover, given the diversity in forest stakeholders across the...
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Stream flow is directly tied to climate, and numerous studies provide substantial evidence that climate change is a threat to future aquatic water flow processes. In the southwestern United States, mountain snow is a primary water source for streams and rivers. However, climate change is threatening the region's mountain snow, leading to reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. These effects can change the timing, quality, and amount of water flowing in aquatic systems, creating challenges for natural resource managers. The goal of the proposed project is to synthesize existing research and management plans to identify misalignments between aquatic flows and the...
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The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world. The MRB encompasses 24 terrestrial ecosystems, providing habitat for 100 species of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians Its floodplain supports 40% of the waterfowl and wading birds in North America, and the MRB’s rivers transport 40% of the nation’s total exports. Dozens of different cultures are scattered across the MRB with different policy structures, worldviews, and economic strengths. The heterogeneity in the environmental and socio-cultural settings across the MRB poses a challenge to climate adaptation and actionable resource management recommendations. Yet climate change has disrupted...
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The Rio Grande is naturally a water-scarce basin in which droughts have been classified as severe (with almost no rain during some years) and extended (lasting more than 10, or even 15 years). Severe and persistent droughts in the Rio Grande basin reduce water availability, which triggers economic, environmental, and social impacts, and affects compliance with interstate compacts and international treaty commitments. In contrast, the Rio Grande basin is also affected by flood events that cause major losses to lives, properties, and economies. Understanding each of these periods of water scarcity and water abundance can help water managers to design adaptation strategies that cope with these two extremes while still...
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Invasive species and climate change represent two major global change threats to ecosystems across the United States and around the world. Invasives can have significant and often irreversible impacts, including the loss of native species or the spread of diseases. Climate change brings other threats to ecosystems, and can also exacerbate and facilitate the spread of invasives throughout natural areas. This project is focused on piloting a collaboration between scientists and natural resource managers in the Northwestern U.S. focused on the nexus of climate change and invasive species. The project team members are working in collaboration with Region 1 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop a...
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Recent advancements in climate modeling, remote sensing, and ecological science have produced a variety of digital geospatial datasets representing many aspects of climate-change ecology that can be applied to conservation and natural-resource management in the face of climate change. The ever increasing body of climate-ecology spatial datasets provides opportunities for natural-resource managers to anticipate climate-driven changes to ecosystems, habitats, and the larger landscape, however, natural-resource managers face many challenges when trying to incorporate these diverse sources of information into on-the-ground decision-making. The Northwest CASC recently supported the development of A guidebook to spatial...
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As wildfire activity surges in the western U.S., managers are increasingly challenged by decisions surrounding managing post-fire environments.Changing fire regimes and warmer,drier post-fire conditions are increasing the likelihood of post-fire vegetation transitions, for example,from forest to grassland. Given the economic and ecological importance of these ecosystems, transformation is a concern for managers, policy-makers, and the public. As rapid environmental changes occur, management aimed at maintaining historical conditions will become increasingly untenable, requiring managers to make decisions that steward vegetation toward desired or novel conditions. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework provides...
A planet with limited water resources needs accurate, reliable and frequently-updated tools to measure water use and plan for future needs. Scientists at EROS harness the remote sensing capabilities of satellite data to offer powerful tools that resource managers across the United States can use to gain insight into the water use needs of agricultural land, forests, and public green spaces.
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High latitude northern ecosystems are currently warming twice as fast as the global average. These temperature increases over the last several decades have led to dramatic declines in the terrestrial cryosphere in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, through the melting of coastal mountain glaciers, thawing of permafrost, and changes in snowpack.. Therefore, characterizing freshwater habitat for salmonfish in Alaska is becoming an increasingly important component of watershed management in light of rapid environmental changes across the Arctic and sub-Arctic. This project proposes a highly collaborative effort among a variety of state agencies, federal agencies and non-profit organizations focused on three overarching...
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The northwestern United States (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana) are experiencing increasing air temperatures, declines in snowpack, altered hydrology, and more frequent and severe wildfire, drought, and insect and disease outbreaks as a result of climate change. These factors, alone and in combination with existing non-climate stressors, present a significant challenge to the natural and cultural resources of the region as well as to the managers tasked with their protection. While adaptation strategies and actions offer a path forward in the face of climate change, resource management decision-making is complicated by the multitude of adaptation options that have already been identified for the...
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Integrating climate change into place-based conservation (i.e. focusing efforts on a specific place or region) presents a pressing challenge in the future success of biodiversity conservation. In particular, the broad effects of climate change can make it difficult to prioritize specific actions in specific places. Currently, Natural Heritage New Mexico, along with state and federal partners, has developed Conservation Opportunity Areas for New Mexico representing locations where limited conservation funds can be effectively used for the preservation of sensitive species. Although the existing Conservation Opportunity Areas represent a best estimate of where conservation activities are most likely to have favorable...
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Coastal flooding and erosion are increasingly threatening infrastructure and public safety in Alaska Native communities. While many scientists and projects are attentive to the problem, there are still a limited number of tools that assess vulnerability to coastal flood hazards. Few of the available tools use modeling approaches that can be customized to specific community information needs in a manner that easily supports local adaptation planning. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), however, is a dynamic modeling approach developed by the USGS in collaboration with state and federal agencies to achieve detailed scenario projections of coastal flooding caused by coastal storm events and sea-level rise....
map background search result map search result map Examining the Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on Colorado River Water Resources: Reconstructing the Past to Understand the Future Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate Developing a Climate Change-Informed “Conservation Opportunity Area” Portfolio for Sensitive Species’ Preservation Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions Incorporation of Climate Change Science Into Invasive Species Management Developing a Climate Adaptation Checklist to Inform Natural Resource Management Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest Mapping Connections across Ecosystems in the Northeast to Inform Climate Refugia Informing Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Post-fire Vegetation Transitions Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Future of Aquatic Flows: Endangered streams: Understanding misalignments between aquatic flows and management strategies to inform adaptation efforts Future of Aquatic Flows in the South Central U.S.: Toward Sustainable Water Management in the Mississippi River Basin Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species Future of Aquatic Flows: Impacts of cryospheric change on aquatic flows and freshwater habitat quality for fish and communities Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate Developing a Climate Change-Informed “Conservation Opportunity Area” Portfolio for Sensitive Species’ Preservation Examining the Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on Colorado River Water Resources: Reconstructing the Past to Understand the Future Incorporation of Climate Change Science Into Invasive Species Management Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Future of Aquatic Flows: Endangered streams: Understanding misalignments between aquatic flows and management strategies to inform adaptation efforts Developing a Climate Adaptation Checklist to Inform Natural Resource Management Mapping Connections across Ecosystems in the Northeast to Inform Climate Refugia Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Informing Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Post-fire Vegetation Transitions Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast Future of Aquatic Flows in the South Central U.S.: Toward Sustainable Water Management in the Mississippi River Basin Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Future of Aquatic Flows: Impacts of cryospheric change on aquatic flows and freshwater habitat quality for fish and communities Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species