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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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Climate change is expected to worsen the harmful effects of invasive species on native wildlife. This presents a growing conservation challenge for invasive species managers in the southeastern United States where thousands of invasive species exist. While many of these invasive species currently have relatively small ranges in the southeastern U.S., climate change may allow them to expand into new regions. To effectively plan and respond to the redistribution of invasive species, it is crucial to coordinate existing information and identify future information needs across regional boundaries. The ultimate goal of this project is to improve invasive species management in the face of climate change by establishing...
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States in the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (SEAFWA) region have faced challenges when trying to develop regional plans or actions for many conservation issues. Leadership in many SEAFWA states is hesitant to approach the topic of climate change at all, let alone engage in multi-state efforts to mitigate climate impacts. Recent Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SE CASC) supported research surveyed agency directors and supervisory boards, and discovered their primary concerns revolved around agency budgets, “R3” efforts (i.e., to recruit, retain, and reactivate hunters and anglers), and public outreach to maintain social relevance. Another project supported by the SE CASC and the...
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The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective. Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current...
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Coastal ecosystems are uniquely vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of freshwater discharge. With a warming climate, changes in freshwater discharge into estuaries will interact with rising sea levels. Coastal natural resource managers need guidance on the potential impacts and vulnerabilities to better manage the risks to aquatic species and habitats and to mitigate species decline or collapse resulting from changes in freshwater availability. This project will inform resource managers on the development of management plans that protect coastal ecosystems and species while accounting for changes in freshwater availability under climate uncertainty. To achieve this, the proposed project has three objectives....
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Coastal marshes are vital habitats that protect and support our coastal communities and economies by providing protection from storm surge, filtering pollutants, and providing recreational opportunities. Rising sea levels threaten marshes and jeopardize the benefits they provide to human communities and ecosystems. To preserve these benefits, coastal resource managers need to understand how marshes will change in the short- and long-term in response to rising sea levels. Scientific models provide resource managers with an effective way to visualize and understand these changes, but the numerous choices of marsh models currently available can be overwhelming to coastal managers. The similarities and differences...
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Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers plan for these changes by creating models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. is experiencing particularly rapid population growth, as a favorable winter climate has drawn millions to the region from other areas of the country over the past several decades. However, the Southeast is also at risk from the effects of climate change, particularly along its vast coastline, where over a quarter of the region’s population...
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The pine rockland ecosystem is found only in south Florida and the Bahamas and provides important habitat for numerous rare and endemic plants and animals. These include 18 species that are already federally listed as threatened or endangered and four other species petitioned for listing that are scheduled for development of Species Status Assessments (SSAs). Today, south Florida’s pine rockland ecosystem represents less than 3 percent of its original extent. Threats such as saltwater intrusion from hurricanes and sea-level rise pose the greatest risk to the longevity of this ecosystem. For the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to make decisions about the potential listing of a species, they must be able to forecast...
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Amphibians in the US Caribbean, like the well-known coquí frog, are particularly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Coquí frogs are represented by 17 species across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands and include several mountainous and coastal species that are threatened by extreme heat and drying, loss of coastal freshwater marshes through saltwater intrusion, or both. Over the past decade, the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center has invested in several scientific investigations to understand how global climate change is likely to affect the local climate of the US Caribbean and how sensitive different coquí species are to changes in local climate and habitat conditions in Puerto Rico. This project...
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Under the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) must evaluate the status of at-risk plants and animals in the U.S. A Species Status Assessment (SSA) is a scientific assessment prepared for each at-risk species to help inform a range of management decisions under the Endangered Species Act. SSA’s are currently needed for more than 350 species, 250 of which are in the Southeast region alone. These species are threatened by several stressors including urbanization, loss of habitat, changes in streamflow and water quality, climate variability, and climate change. As part of the SSA process, teams must identify and assess risks to species or their habitat from changing climate, hydrology,...
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The Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States contain the greatest biodiversity of native freshwater mussels in the world, but they are highly imperiled due to habitat alteration and destruction, pollution and poor water quality, and the introduction of aquatic invasive species. Now they are at even greater risk from the stresses associated with climate change-induced sea level rise and its associated changes in salinity, water temperature, and stream flow. This project investigates the potential vulnerability and adaptation of a native freshwater mussel, the Tidewater Mucket, in coastal river systems and offer solutions for its conservation. Scientists have recently discovered a population of...
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Barrier islands are exposed to a range of natural and human-caused changes, including hurricanes, sea-level rise, and dredging. These changes have the potential to influence the ability of barrier islands to serve as a first-line of defense for the mainland during storm events. Gulf Islands National Seashore, a National Park Service unit in the northern Gulf of Mexico between Florida and Mississippi, is predominantly comprised of barrier islands and faces immediate challenges, including erosion that washes out roads and sand dunes and the adverse impacts on cultural and natural resources from exposure to saltwater. Managers require realistic estimates of both the vulnerability of the park’s natural and cultural...
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State wildlife agencies and their partners use State Wildlife Action Plans to coordinate and guide management activities aimed at protecting species. To do so, they must identify factors putting species and their habitats at risk. Current and future climate change is one such factor. To succeed, management actions need to account for impacts of climate change on species today and in the future as climate change accelerates in coming decades. Researchers use modeling approaches to simulate and understand how future climate change will impact species. In contrast, natural resource managers involved in wildlife action plans tend to favor index-based scoring approaches to understand the risks to and vulnerability...
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Global change processes are producing shifts in temperature, precipitation, and seasonal streamflow regimes across North America. Much of the floodplain hydrology in the U.S. is managed through water control operations, often implemented on short time scales (e.g., weekly decisions), in response to short-term changes in precipitation. This operational model does not account for potential long-term trends, such as increased recurrence or shifts in seasonal timing of high flow events within a year. Therefore, polices that only focus on short-time scales and recent historic conditions may not perform as well under altered climate regimes. This uncertainty in future floodplain conditions is concerning for a variety...
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The Southeastern United States has vast underground ecosystems where temperatures vary little throughout the year and humidity is always near 100%. These cave and karst ecosystems provide many services to people, such as recreational opportunities, revenue from tourism, and groundwater storage. Caves also provide habitats for important and endangered species, like bats that eat mosquitoes and crop pests. Cave-dwelling species have evolved to live in relatively stable climates, so they may be especially sensitive to climate change. However, it is unclear how surface climate change will affect cave climates and the species that rely on them, because caves are remote environments that have long been difficult to...
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Prescribed burning is a primary tool used to reduce wildfire risk and manage ecosystems to achieve a range of ecological, economic and societal goals.  The ability of fire managers to use prescribed fire as a management tool is complicated in regions such as the Southeast because of rapid population growth, extensive suburban development, and a changing climate. Such change restricts prescribed burning while also highlighting the necessity of an active prescribed fire management regime to reduce wildfire risk in these communities. To help managers make decisions in light of these factors, there is a need to document: 1) the current conditions under which practitioners are willing to burn and restrictions to active...
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The southeast United States has many lakes, streams and reservoirs that serve as important drinking water sources, recreational, agricultural, and ecological uses. Unfortunately, harmful algal blooms are becoming more common in these waters, causing health issues for humans and animals. While it is clear that nutrients stimulate algae growth, it isn’t clear if there are other parameters that stimulate the development of harmful algal blooms. The scientific literature describes additional parameters that may affect algae growth, such as storm occurrence, temperature, dissolved metals, erosion of soils, length of growing season, and hydroperiod.This project will address these different parameters and examine how climate...
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The Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SE CASC) promotes collaborative research, with a focus on training next-generation scientists through active engagement with stakeholders and agencies, to enhance landscape-level conservation and management of natural and cultural resources. The SE CASC is hosted by North Carolina State University (NCSU) with consortium partners Duke University, Auburn University, University of Florida, University of Tennessee, and University of South Carolina. University host NCSU connects the SE CASC to top scientists and stakeholders across the region to address the complexities of land management and conservation during rapid climate change, population growth, and urbanization....
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Cherokee Peoples have had a sustained presence in the southern Appalachians over the past 12,000 years, with a peak population of about 250,000 people inhabiting approximately 32 million hectares across Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the Carolinas. Early contact with European settlers caused drastic population declines and land loss, due to disease, land cession, and the relocation of people to western reservations. Today, the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI) comprises 16,000 citizens who maintain approximately 24,000 hectares of land known as the Qualla Boundary. The EBCI hold a distinct perspective informed by a multi-generational connection to place and to a collective...
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Information about streamflow and streamflow variability is critical to assist natural resource managers when they make decisions related to the water needs of both human communities and ecosystems. In order for managers to effectively plan for and adapt to future climate and land cover conditions, they require information on changes that could occur in the distribution and quantity of water resources. Yet every watershed has a unique set of characteristics – such as differing topographies and geology – that affect how much water is available, the sources of water, and how it flows through the system. This means that water availability in every watershed can be affected differently by changes in climate and land...
map background search result map search result map Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Southeastern U.S. for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Impacts of Sea Level Rise on At-risk Native Freshwater Mussels in Atlantic Coastal Rivers Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by North Carolina State University (2017-2023) Accounting for Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in State Wildlife Action Plans: A comparison of Model-Based and Index-Based Vulnerability Assessments Clarifying Science Needs for Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Harmful Algal Blooms in Southeastern United States Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation Water, Water Everywhere: Adapting Water Control Operations and Floodplain Conservation Planning to Global Change Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Developing a Cave Conservation Management Toolbox by Exploring Cave Microclimates and Biodiversity Patterns Improving Support for Regional Conservation Efforts in the Region Managed by the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean The Long View: Developing a 500-year Climate Adaptation Plan with the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Water, Water Everywhere: Adapting Water Control Operations and Floodplain Conservation Planning to Global Change Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean Developing Future Habitat Condition Scenarios for Wildlife in the Imperiled Pine Rockland Ecosystem of South Florida Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Impacts of Sea Level Rise on At-risk Native Freshwater Mussels in Atlantic Coastal Rivers Accounting for Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in State Wildlife Action Plans: A comparison of Model-Based and Index-Based Vulnerability Assessments The Long View: Developing a 500-year Climate Adaptation Plan with the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Southeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network (SE RISCC) Developing a Cave Conservation Management Toolbox by Exploring Cave Microclimates and Biodiversity Patterns Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast Clarifying Science Needs for Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Harmful Algal Blooms in Southeastern United States Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by North Carolina State University (2017-2023) Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Southeastern U.S. for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions Improving Support for Regional Conservation Efforts in the Region Managed by the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species