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The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), as part of the work of the Interagency Land Management Adaptation Group (ILMAG), initiated a project in 2013 to develop plans for a searchable, public registry on climate change vulnerability assessments. Member agencies from the USGCRP Adaptation Science Work Group, the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (AFWA), and several NGO’s also contributed. Vulnerability assessments are important for identifying resources that are most likely to be affected by climate change and providing insights on why certain resources are vulnerable. Consequently, they provide valuable information for informing climate change adaptation planning. CRAVe allows...
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The purpose of this project was to develop a spatially explicit occupancy model for grizzly bears across the full extent of the CCE. The landscape occupancy model was created using ecological variables compiled for the CCE by the CMP and grizzly bear detection data provided by our partners in Alberta, British Columbia, and Montana.
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This product used species distribution modeling (SDM) to model the geographic distribution fire promoting grasses across the islands of Hawaii under both current climate conditions and under future climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5 at year 2100). The RCP 8.5 scenario assumes unmitigated and continued release of greenhouse grasses and continued human population growth. Six species of well established and widely distributed grasses (Andropogon virginicus (broomsedge), Cenchrus ciliaris (buffelgrass), Cenchrus setaceus (fountain grass), Megathyrus maximus (guinea grass, Urochloa maxima, Pancicum maximum), Melinis minutiflora (mollasses grass), and Schizachyrium microstachyum (formerly referred to as S. condensatum...
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We created ADAPT to help partners make science-informed decisions related to species and habitat prioritization across the Southwest United States. We used Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to analyze the data at a 1-km resolution. We used climate and land use change data generated from CMIP 6 climate models. Count data were from eBird surveys and converted to presence/absence data for analysis. Our model consisted of fixed effects of elevation, land cover type, and effort with random effects for year and site as well as a spatial random effect. We implemented the effect of relative humidity as a spatially-varying coefficient such that the effect of relative humidity on occupancy can vary at each grid...
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A warmer climate has increased the spread of mountain Pine beetle. Historically, mountain pine beetle populations were limited to southern regions due to cold temperature intolerance. However, increasing winter temperatures has allowed the species to spread further north, contributing to the loss of over 1 million ha of forest in the United States and 9 million ha in Canada.Data on mountain pine beetle damage was compiled by CMP Hi5 Working Group technical team. Aerial detection surveys between 1999–2020 for Montana, Alberta, and Waterton Lakes National Park were compiled and assigned a severity score using the USDA Forest Service classification system. Severity is based on crown mortality from aerial images, with...
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The introduction of white pine blister rust, a fungus from Eastern Asia introduced to North America in the early 1900s, has inhibited the persistence of whitebark pine. Once white pine blister rust infects a tree, the fungus girdles branches and then main stem, eventually killing the tree. Since its introduction, white pine blister rust has continued to spread throughout North America with minimal environmental limitations. Within the Crown of the Continent ecosystem, up to 57% of trees have been infected or died due to white pine blister rust.At the time of this analysis, no geospatial data exists for white pine blister rust within the Crown landscape. However, because this rust is most abundant in cool and wet...
    map background search result map search result map Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability Grizzly Bear Occupancy Model, Relative probability of occupancy in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem Species Distribution Modeling of Invasive, Fire Promoting Grasses, Across the Hawaiian Islands in Both 2023 and Under a Future Scenario of Unmitigated Climate Change in 2100 Whitebark Pine- Mountain Pine Beetle Whitebark Pine- White Pine Blister Rust At-risk species distribution analyzer for predicting trends Species Distribution Modeling of Invasive, Fire Promoting Grasses, Across the Hawaiian Islands in Both 2023 and Under a Future Scenario of Unmitigated Climate Change in 2100 Grizzly Bear Occupancy Model, Relative probability of occupancy in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem Whitebark Pine- White Pine Blister Rust Whitebark Pine- Mountain Pine Beetle At-risk species distribution analyzer for predicting trends Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability