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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Northeast CASC > FY 2014 Projects > Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning ( Show direct descendants )

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__National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
___Northeast CASC
____FY 2014 Projects
_____Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning
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We developed high-resolution climate projections for the mid- and late 21st century across the Great Lakes region, including the Midwest and Northeast United States and southern Canada. We applied a regional climate model that addresses future changes in Great Lakes’ water temperatures, ice cover, and evaporation, which critically impact lake-effect snowfall. This new dataset is highly valuable, given that most global climate models applied in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and National Climate Assessment either completely lack the Great Lakes or largely under-represent their coverage and impacts. After quantifying projected changes in weather severity based on air temperature and snow...
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167506): Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled...