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In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere...
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Throughout Alaska, land managers and rural communities are faced with developing climate adaptation strategies to prepare for changes in landscapes, ecosystems and terrestrial habitats and their associated resources and services. One of the greatest challenges for land use managers and stakeholders in Alaska is the discovery and accessibility of relevant scientific information and data. The effective dissemination and communication of science relies on improving access for stakeholders to discover research, management plans, and data within their geographic area of interest. To respond to this need, the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NWBLCC) has launched the Northwest Boreal Science and Management...
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Through its many research projects and initiatives, the Alaska Climate Science Center (AK CSC) collects important scientific data that can be shared and used by resource managers in decision-making or other scientists who may access and use the data to move forward the state of the science on a particular topic. The University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), through the work of staff at its International Arctic Research Center (IARC), has become one of the primary providers of data services for the Alaska CSC to help make this data available and accessible and to ensure that it meets required standards and is properly managed, stored, and used. In particular, ongoing UAF data stewardship activities include ensuring that...
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Water is a key ecosystem service that provides life to vegetation, animals, and human communities. The distribution and flow of water on a landscape influences many ecological functions, such as the distribution and health of vegetation and soil development and function. However, the future of many important water resources remains uncertain. Reduced snowfall and snowpack, earlier spring runoff, increased winter streamflow and flooding, and decreased summer streamflow have all been identified as potential impacts to water resources due to climate change. These factors all influence the water balance in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest (PCTR). Ensuring healthy flow and availability of water resources is...
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Communities, resource managers, and decision makers in Arctic Alaska are in need of scientific information to base important decisions related to anticipating and adapting to changes in temperature and precipitation. Since its inception in 2011, the Alaska Climate Science Center (AK CSC) and its partners have produced a variety of scientific products and datasets aimed at supporting this need and increasing climate change resilience in the Arctic. However, much of the information related to these activities is dispersed across many technical publications, and is often not readily accessible to those outside the research community. In an effort to make this science more available and accessible, the AK CSC is working...
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For the Upper Yukon area of interior Alaska, climate change has become a daily fact of life, causing a wide range of impacts to the environment, and in some cases to community health. In 2015 the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium and the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center organized a series of assessments to better understand the impacts of climate change being observed in this region, including the communities Arctic Village, Fort Yukon, and Venetie. Support for this project was provided by USGS and by local tribal partners including Arctic Village Traditional Council, Gwichyaa Zhee Gwich’in Tribal Council, and the Venetie Village Council. The assessments were also performed in partnership with three...
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In Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, snow plays a crucial role in atmospheric and hydrologic systems and has a major influence on the health and function of regional ecosystems. Warming temperatures may have a significant impact on snow and may therefore affect the entire water cycle of the region. A decrease in precipitation in the form of snow, or “snow drought”, can manifest in several ways including changes to total snowfall amounts, snow accumulation, and the timing/length of the snow season. Understanding these changes is then critical for understanding and predicting a variety of climate impacts to wildlife and ecosystems. However, little research has been conducted to date to understand how this change may...
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Communities, state and federal agencies, resource managers, and decision makers throughout Alaska need sound scientific information to better understand our changing world to make informed, science-based decisions that will shape the future. Scientists also need information from these stakeholders to understand what science questions need to be answered, develop research priorities, and gain important insight about the landscape based on personal experiences and generational knowledge. However, effective two-way conversations between scientists and stakeholders are often limited, due to resource constraints, a lack of necessary communication skills and tools, and other factors. A mechanism for better communication...
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For thousands of years, Pacific lamprey and Pacific eulachon have been important traditional foods for Native American tribes of the Columbia River Basin and coastal areas of Oregon and Washington. These fish have large ranges – spending part of their lives in the ocean and part in freshwater streams – and they require specific environmental conditions to survive, migrate, and reproduce. For these reasons, Pacific lamprey and Pacific eulachon are likely threatened by a variety of climate change impacts to both their ocean and freshwater habitats. However, to date, little research has explored these impacts, despite the importance of these species to tribal communities. This project will evaluate the effects of...
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Birds are appreciated and enjoyed by thousands of people and also play important roles in the ecosystem as predators, prey, and pollinators. Alaska provides important breeding ground for hundreds of migratory bird species that travel thousands of miles in their annual migrations between breeding and wintering spots. Understanding how climate and land use changes affect migratory bird populations is crucial; however this information is also very difficult to collect. Migration routes expose birds to a wide range of landscapes and habitats, which are often experiencing varying degrees of climate and land use change (e.g. warmer temperatures or increased housing developments). Moreover, climate change in the future...
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Alaska’s land, water, plants, wildlife, and seasons are undergoing a great upheaval, and its people, especially the communities living in remote villages are directly and severely impacted by these widespread environmental changes. These changes are not only widespread but also often so rapid that we cannot possibly have enough scientists and professionals on the ground to detect and predict these changes before their effects are obvious. Especially environmental changes occurring in and around the remote communities in Alaska are directly affecting the subsistence resources and practices, thus have the most impact on the socio-economic conditions of these communities. In order to detect, monitor, and forecast these...
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The eulachon is a small fish that is both highly nutritious and culturally significant to the Chilkat and Chilkoot peoples of the Tlingit Nation in Southeast Alaska, for whom it is a traditional food. Tribal members are increasingly concerned about how climate change might stress the health and abundance of eulachon populations, which are already perceived as being low. In order to successfully manage these fisheries in light of climate change, tribal communities need information about how euchalon are vulnerable and which management strategies will help the species adapt. For this project, researchers used climate projections, monitoring data, and traditional ecological knowledge to assess the climate change vulnerability...
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Snow is extremely important to a wide range of natural processes in Alaska. Snow cover helps regulate the earth’s temperature and stores water on the landscape. As it melts, snow hydrates the soil and replenishes the freshwater supplies of streams and lakes, providing water for vegetation, wildlife, and human activities such as agriculture and electricity generation. Understanding present and future snow conditions under climate change is critical for managing Alaska’s natural resources, yet many scientists, land managers, and policymakers lack this information at useful scales. Hence, the goal of this project was to produce an advanced snow modeling system for part of the Arctic that predicts a variety of factors...
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As temperature and precipitation patterns change in Alaska, the need for scientific information to inform decision making related to the management of our natural resources becomes ever more important. However, the research being conducted to understand potential future impacts of climate change in Alaska frequently results in output and products that, in their raw forms, are not easily used by stakeholders and partners or are somewhat removed from the direct information needs of natural resource decision makers. This project broadly aims to evaluate the information needs of regional stakeholders and partners; conduct “translational” activities to make archived historical data, modeled output, and future projections...
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Permanently frozen ground, known as permafrost, is a critical feature of the Arctic landscape. As temperatures warm, permafrost is thawing, with potentially adverse impacts to infrastructure, communities, and the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems. However, the processes leading to changes in permafrost are not well understood, and there is a need to better understand the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw. Addressing these gaps in information regarding permafrost characteristics and dynamics, and what these changes will mean for human communities and ecosystems, will support management and planning efforts. This project seeks to address these gaps through several mechanisms. First researchers have synthesized...
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Permafrost is a layer of perennially frozen soil that primarily exists in and around the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the world. While a shallow near-surface soil layer (called active layer) thaws during the summer and re-freezes in the winter, the underlying permafrost remains perennially frozen, often underlying buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. As warmer temperatures become more common, thawing of permafrost could have major consequences for Alaska. Where thawing has already occurred, dramatic changes in ecosystems and existing infrastructure are evident. For example, thawing permafrost along the ocean shore and riverbanks in Northern Alaska is causing substantial coastal erosion and is impacting...
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In coastal Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and extreme weather events threaten human communities, critical infrastructure, valuable natural resources, and traditional, subsistence hunting and fishing lifestyles. Understanding how changing climate conditions impact Alaska’s coastal ecosystems, and how these changes may be tied to the ability of coastal communities to adapt to changing conditions, has been identified as a priority question in the state. In order to identify knowledge gaps and resource needs related to adaptation and resilience in coastal Alaska, the Alaska Climate Science Center partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and a dozen other entities...
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Understanding how snow will change over the coming century is vital in understanding environmental changes across Alaska. Changes in snow are also economically important to many sectors, from recreation to commercial fishing. An earlier set of rain-snow partitioning and snowfall equivalent projections based on downscaled CMIP3 temperature and precipitation projections have been used extensively. In this project, we developed updated projections for the fraction of precipitation days that are snowy (vs. rainy) and the amount of precipitation that likely falls as snow to be consistent with the newest downscaled temperature and precipitation released by SNAP. The outputs are decadal monthly averages. The updated snow...
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In Alaska, increased wildfire activity has been linked to warming temperatures. Summers with extreme wildfire activity threaten life and property, clog the air with smoke, and challenge the state’s wildland firefighters. While the largest fires are often started by lightning and burn in remote areas, these fires require significant resources to fight when they threaten life and property. Increased wildfire activity is projected to continue in Alaska, as climate conditions change. Therefore, understanding how to best calculate fire risk based on short and long-term weather conditions is needed to improve fire season forecasts. Currently, Alaska’s fire managers rely on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to monitor...
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The Klamath Basin in Oregon and California is home to a rich abundance of natural and cultural resources, many of which are vulnerable to present and future climate change. Climate change also threatens traditional ways of life for tribal communities, who have deep connections to the region. This project sought to increase the effectiveness of regional climate change adaptation and planning by (1) developing ways to integrate traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) with western science in decision making, (2) building partnerships between tribal, academic, and government institutions, and (3) increasing future capacity to respond to climate change by engaging tribal youth. Through this project, the Quartz Valley...
map background search result map search result map Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Projecting the Future Distribution and Flow of Water in Alaskan Coastal Forest Watersheds Modeling and Predicting Future Changes in Snowfall and Snow Cover in Alaska Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Pacific Lamprey and Pacific Eulachon Building Collaboration in the Klamath Basin Through Tribal Youth Internships Identifying Climate Vulnerabilities and Prioritizing Adaptation Strategies for Eulachon Populations in Southeast Alaska Developing a Coordinated, Multi-Region Effort to Understand the Effects of Climate Change on Migratory Birds Translating Scientific Information for Use by Decision Makers in Alaska A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Arctic Alaska Snow Drought: Recognizing and Understanding its Impacts in Alaska Permafrost Change and Impacts on Infrastructure and Resources in Alaska: A Synthesis of Past Work Improving the Accessibility and Usability of Scientific Data: Data Management and Data Services for the Alaska CSC Assessing Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting Methods in Alaska Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Region The Arctic in the Classroom: Study of Landscape Change in Remote Communities of Alaska: A K-12 Citizen Science Initiative toward Sustained Arctic Observations Community Observations on Climate Change: Arctic Village, Fort Yukon, and Venetie, Alaska Northwest Boreal Science and Management Research Tool Bringing Scientists and Stakeholders Together through ScienceTapes (Alaska Voices) Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios Identifying Climate Vulnerabilities and Prioritizing Adaptation Strategies for Eulachon Populations in Southeast Alaska Community Observations on Climate Change: Arctic Village, Fort Yukon, and Venetie, Alaska Building Collaboration in the Klamath Basin Through Tribal Youth Internships Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Projecting the Future Distribution and Flow of Water in Alaskan Coastal Forest Watersheds Modeling and Predicting Future Changes in Snowfall and Snow Cover in Alaska Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Pacific Lamprey and Pacific Eulachon Northwest Boreal Science and Management Research Tool Translating Scientific Information for Use by Decision Makers in Alaska A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Arctic Alaska Snow Drought: Recognizing and Understanding its Impacts in Alaska Assessing Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting Methods in Alaska Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska The Arctic in the Classroom: Study of Landscape Change in Remote Communities of Alaska: A K-12 Citizen Science Initiative toward Sustained Arctic Observations Bringing Scientists and Stakeholders Together through ScienceTapes (Alaska Voices) Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Region Developing a Coordinated, Multi-Region Effort to Understand the Effects of Climate Change on Migratory Birds Permafrost Change and Impacts on Infrastructure and Resources in Alaska: A Synthesis of Past Work Improving the Accessibility and Usability of Scientific Data: Data Management and Data Services for the Alaska CSC