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USGS News Release 4/7/2014: " Dramatic distribution losses and a few major distribution gains are forecasted for southwestern bird and reptile species as the climate changes, according to just-published research by scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of New Mexico, and Northern Arizona University. Overall, the study forecasted species distribution losses – that is, where species are able to live – of nearly half for all but one of the 5 reptile species they examined, including for the iconic chuckwalla. The threatened Sonoran (Morafka’s) desert tortoise, however, is projected to experience little to no habitat losses from climate change...."
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3835/abstract): Climate models may be limited in their inferential use if they cannot be locally validated or do not account for spatial uncertainty. Much of the focus has gone into determining which interpolation method is best suited for creating gridded climate surfaces, which often a covariate such as elevation (Digital Elevation Model, DEM) is used to improve the interpolation accuracy. One key area where little research has addressed is in determining which covariate best improves the accuracy in the interpolation. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation was carried out in determining which covariates were most suitable for interpolating climatic...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12772/full): The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e. green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate and duration of green-up along migratory routes,...
These products are a part of the project, Predicting Risks of Island Extinctions Due to Sea-level Rise: Model Based Tools to Mitigate Terrestrial Habitat Losses in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320712004387#): An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma ( Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western...
Abstract (from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03632415.2014.996804#.VSbE2I7F8qY): Freshwaters are being transformed by multiple environmental drivers, creating uncertainty about future conditions. One way of coping with uncertainty is to manage for resilience to unanticipated events while facilitating learning through adaptive management. We outline the application of these strategies to freshwater recreational fisheries management using a case study in Wisconsin, USA, where black bass (Micropterus spp.) populations are increasing, while Walleye (Sander vitreus) populations are decreasing. Managing for heterogeneity in functional groups (e.g., age classes and prey species of sport fishes), fishery objectives,...
Abstracts (from http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ncfwrustaff/177/): Climate change has increased worldwide temperatures, affected seasonal patterns, and altered important sources of natural selection. To manage wildlife populations successfully, we must understand how patterns and processes of climate change alter trade-offs between sources of selection to predict how individuals may respond, populations may evolve, and management actions may ameliorate the costs of changing climates. Here we discuss how the migratory patterns of leapfrog and chain migration facilitate or constrain responses by migratory songbirds to spatial and temporal variation in climate change across western North America. Based on 52 years of...
Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was...
Natural selection may result in local adaptation to different environmental conditions across the range of a species. Understanding local adaptation, in turn, informs management decisions such as translocation to restore locally-extinct populations. We used a landscape genomics approach to detect genetic signatures of selection related to climatic variation among desert bighorn sheep populations across their indigenous range in the western United States. This approach allowed us to investigate broad patterns of both neutral and adaptive genetic variation across very different environments. Analyses suggested that ancestry and isolation by distance were the most significant forces driving genetic variation in desert...
The Wyoming Migration Initiative advances the understanding, appreciation, and conservation of Wyoming's migratory ungulates by conducting innovative research and sharing scientific information through public outreach.
These data were used to estimate models relating climate and land cover to wetland densities and develop projections under climate and land use change. Data for model estimation were derived from historical climate data, estimates of hydrological processes based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, National Wetlands Inventory, and the National Land Cover Database. Wetland densities were based on observations from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. Projected climate conditions were derived from ten Global Climate Models, and projected changes in land use were based on an economic model of the effects of climate on land use transitions. These data support the following publication: Sofaer,...
Globally, spring phenology and abiotic processes are shifting earlier with warming. Differences in the magnitudes of these shifts may decouple the timing of plant resource requirements from resource availability. In riparian forests across the northern hemisphere, warming could decouple seed release from snowmelt peak streamflow, thus reducing moisture and safe sites for dominant tree recruitment. We combined field observations with climate, hydrology, and phenology models to simulate future change in synchrony of seed release and snowmelt peaks in the South Platte River Basin, Colorado, for three Salicaceae species that dominate western USA riparian forests. Chilling requirements for overcoming winter endodormancy...
Abstract (from http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/283/1840/20161574): A substantial amount of global carbon is stored in mature trees. However, no experiments to date test how warming affects mature tree carbon storage. Using a unique, citywide, factorial experiment, we investigated how warming and insect herbivory affected physiological function and carbon sequestration (carbon stored per year) of mature trees. Urban warming increased herbivorous arthropod abundance on trees, but these herbivores had negligible effects on tree carbon sequestration. Instead, urban warming was associated with an estimated 12% loss of carbon sequestration, in part because photosynthesis was reduced at hotter sites. Ecosystem...
This project is a collaboration with scientists from North Carolina State University, the University of Florida, the Wildlands Network, USGS, the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the Southeast Climate Science Center, and southeastern Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. We are using multiple approaches to defining landscape resistance and modeling connectivity.
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In the Southeastern U.S., “insular ecosystems” may be particularly vulnerable to ecological effects from climate change. These insular ecosystems share a few key biogeographic characteristics: (1) occurrences that are spatially discrete, (2) relatively small geographic footprints, and (3) with steep ecological and environmental gradients at their boundaries. Examples include rock outcrop ecosystems (e.g. Piedmont granite outcrops, Appalachian high-elevation outcrops), grasslands (high-elevation balds, xeric limestone prairies), isolated wetlands (Carolina bays, karst depression wetlands) and riparian riverscour systems. Such insular ecosystems tend to support concentrations of endemic and disjunct species; thus...
We conducted an analysis of global forest cover to reveal that 70% of remaining forest is within 1 km of the forest’s edge, subject to the degrading effects of fragmentation. A synthesis of fragmentation experiments spanning multiple biomes and scales, five continents, and 35 years demonstrates that habitat fragmentation reduces biodiversity by 13 to 75% and impairs key ecosystem functions by decreasing biomass and altering nutrient cycles. Effects are greatest in the smallest and most isolated fragments, and they magnify with the passage of time. These findings indicate an urgent need for conservation and restoration measures to improve landscape connectivity, which will reduce extinction rates and help maintain...
map background search result map search result map Climate-sensitive, Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern U.S.: The State of the Science and a Case Study of Limestone Cedar Glades in the Central Basin of Tennessee Climate-sensitive, Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern U.S.: The State of the Science and a Case Study of Limestone Cedar Glades in the Central Basin of Tennessee