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Wildfire burn areas are increasing in the western U.S., a change that has been linked to increased fuel aridity caused by climate change. Recognizing that there will likely be even more large fires in the future presents an opportunity to prepare and adapt to the expected climatic changes. This project addresses three key science questions: 1) Is there a specific level (threshold) of fuel aridity below which large fires more likely, and levels of temperature and humidity that don’t change how these fires begin and spread? 2) if there is a fuel aridity threshold, how often has that level been exceeded in the past? 3) Do climate models predict this threshold will be exceeded more or less often in the future? ...
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The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is an iconic landscape with national parks, iconic species like grizzly bears and elk, and over 11,500 square miles of forest. While fires are a natural part of the GYA, climate change and land management legacies are increasing the frequency and size of severe fires. Climate change interacts with these fires to shift conifer forests to non-forested grassland and sagebrush ecosystems. These transformations impact species habitat, carbon storage, and other management goals on public lands. However, managing for “natural ecosystems” is not always possible in the face of climate change. The Resist-Accept-Direct framework (RAD) can help: under RAD, managers can resist change to maintain...
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State Wildlife Action Plans are intended to provide proactive planning and guidance for the management of rare or imperiled species, including Species of Greatest Conservation Need. States must update their State Wildlife Action Plans every 10 years, but planners often lack the capacity or resources to integrate climate change into their planning. Revised State Wildlife Action Plans for most states in the North Central region are due by 2025. Providing support and building capacity for climate-informed State Wildlife Action Plans will be most useful now, before revisions are underway in most states. To increase the capacity for state wildlife agencies, this project identified areas expected to be resilient against...
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Mountain ecosystems are prioritized by the North Central CASC due to the provided water resources, recreation opportunities, and endemic biodiversity. Mountain ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change due to elevation-dependent warming, loss of snowpack, reduction in physical area at higher elevations, and general sensitivity of alpine species to climate. Current climate adaptation strategies for this ecosystem include preservation of potential species refugia, connection of migratory pathways between habitat, management of recreation impacts, and modification of snow inputs. Many of these landscapes also fall within wilderness designation, constraining the range of options available for climate adaptation strategies....
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The Missouri River system is the life-blood of the American Midwest, providing critical water resources that drive the region’s agriculture, industry, hydroelectric power generation, and ecosystems. The basin has a long history of development and diversion of water resources, meaning that streamflow records that reflect natural, unmanaged flows over the past century have been rare. As a result, research on the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation in driving droughts and surface water variability in the Missouri River Basin has lagged behind similar work done in other major basins in the country, and has hindered drought planning efforts. To address this need, researchers will use tree-rings...
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Pinyon-juniper woodlands are a major part of western landscapes and are valued for recreational use, cultural resources, watershed protection, and wildlife habitats. These woodlands have been identified by several stakeholders, including natural resource management entities, federal and state agencies, and numerous tribal nations, as important ecosystems that are currently threatened by land treatments, changes in disturbance regimes such as drought and fire, and widespread tree mortality. Currently there exist competing objectives for the management of these systems, including the desire to preserve pinyon-juniper viability as climate conditions continue to shift, as well as the need to track these systems to ensure...
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Managing natural resources is fraught with uncertainties around how complex social-ecological systems will respond to management actions and other forces, such as climate. Modeling tools have emerged to help grapple with different aspects of this challenge, but they are often used independently. The purpose of this project is to link two types of commonly-used simulation models (agent-based models and state-and-transition simulation models) and streamline the handling of model inputs and outputs. This innovation will provide researchers with the capability to simulate the interactions of wildlife, vegetation, management actions, and other drivers, and thus answer questions and inform decisions about how best to...
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Millions of acres of California’s forest cover have been lost due to severe wildfire and drought mediatedinsect outbreaks. These acres may not grow back as forests without management action, which could negatively impact carbon sequestration, access to clean drinking water, wildlife habitat and recreation opportunities. Various factors, including limited regeneration potential, hotter and more extreme climatic conditions, and the threat of reburning hinder forest recovery. In recent year researchers have developed numerous tools and resources to help forest managers prioritize where to reforest, and how to implement climate-adaptive strategies. However, forest managers lack the time and resources to review each...
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Through its Foundational Science Area (FSA) activities, the North Central Climate Science Center (CSC) aims to provide relevant and usable climate information to decision-makers and natural resource managers, so that they can better manage their natural and cultural resources under climate change. Research to meet this objective was implemented in 2013 through three FSAs: (1) Understanding and quantifying drivers of regional climate changes; (2) connecting climate drivers to management targets; and (3) characterizing adaptive capacity of stakeholder communities and informing management options. FSA 1 focused on developing targeted climate information for the North Central region, such as changes in air temperature...
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The North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) involved federal, state, tribal, and university partners to implement a pilot study aimed at developing data and information exchange protocols and identifying analytical needs across a broad network of partners. The study was organized around a set of management questions identified by the NC CSC’s partners. Issues related to species, landscapes, and ecosystem connections were used to orient the study across various scales of decision-making. As part of the study, researchers prototyped the use of climate projections in ecosystem, habitat, and wildlife impact models, to inform resource management and planning decisions. Capabilities and constraints associated...
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Pinyon-juniper woodlands are important ecosystems in the western U.S. that provide numerous critical environmental, economic, and cultural benefits. For example, pinyon pines are a significant cultural resource for multiple Native American Tribes and provide necessary habitat for plants and wildlife (including at risk species, such as the pinyon-jay). Despite their importance, stress put on pinyon-juniper woodlands by wildfires and other interacting effects of climate change are causing major population declines of these woodland trees. Such changes to pinyon-juniper woodlands lead to uncertainty for land managers on best practices for protecting these ecosystems from stand replacing fire (where most or all of...
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As pressures from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, like invasive species, increase, new challenges arise for natural resource managers who are responsible for the health of public lands. One of the greatest challenges these managers face is that the traditional way of managing resources might not be as effective, or in some cases might be ineffective, in light of transformational ecological impacts that exist at the intersection of society and ecosystems. Thus, managers are struggling to understand how they should be managing shared natural resources and landscapes in this new era. This project studies the decision-making process of federal land managers to illuminate how decisions are being navigated...
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The South Central CASC supports several graduate students in their Masters and Doctoral research through providing salary support as well as intellectual support. Each student is part of a broad team of researchers who examine issues relevant to the CASC through funding from a host of federal and state agencies (e.g., USDA, NOAA, NSF, state departments of wildlife conservation or water resources). The students support the mission of the South Central CASC and their work is highlighted here through publications and other related products.
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To support cultural resources and better understand the regional implications of climate change, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has found it critical to be directly engaged in research activities with the Federally recognized Tribes across the South Central United States. The South Central CASC Tribal Sustainability Science Manager will engage in scientific research that addresses Tribal needs for adaptive management and sustainability in the South-Central U.S. through an a extended network of connections to Tribal governments. This work is key to enhancing the Trust relationship of the Tribes with the Department of the Interior. This project will provide supplemental support for the...
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Salmon runs are an important time when salmon migrate from the ocean to freshwater, swimming upriver to reach spawning beds. These annual events provide an important food source for both predators and for local communities. However, Recent declines in salmon runs have caused hardship in subsistence fishing communities throughout Alaska, particularly in the Yukon River Basin. To adapt to a changing climate, fishing communities, natural resource managers, and scientists need to measure and understand climate impacts onto salmon runs in this region. To monitor changes in salmon populations and manage fisheries, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and Tanana Chiefs...
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California is a world biodiversity hotspot, and also home to hundreds of sensitive, threatened, and endangered species. One of the most vulnerable ecosystems in California is the “sky island” montane forests of southern California, forests of conifers and hardwoods located only in high-elevation mountain regions. Montane forests serve many important ecosystem functions, including protecting the upper watersheds of all the major rivers in Southern California. Yet human use, invasive species, droughts, fires, and now climate change are increasingly threatening the sensitive ecosystem. A major obstacle to the sustainability of montane forests in southern California is the absence of a coordinated strategic conservation...
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Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have helped grow the body of literature surrounding phenology. We now know, for example, that invasive species often show greater flexibility in the timing of their phenological events, enabling them to outcompete native species as climate and environmental conditions change. Natural resource managers recognize that changes in phenology...
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Natural resource managers planning for increased incidence of droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts in the North Central region are in charge of management strategies that can impact the well-being of rural communities in the region. Gaining a better understanding of how resource management decisions may impact rural communities can allow for better consideration of the costs and benefits of resource management decisions. Identifying these impacts is especially important as these communities are often already unfairly disadvantaged and more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This project will focus on exploring the ways in which natural resource management decisions affect rural and tribal...
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Sagebrush steppe ecosystems provide livelihoods for humans and essential habitats for wildlife, and thus management actions in these systems to promote wildlife persistence must strike a balance between human needs with those of wildlife. Across the western U.S., these landscapes have been heavily altered or lost through human activities, and climate change is expected to cause further changes in the quality and connections between habitat patches that could exacerbate declining populations of vulnerable wildlife species. To better manage these ecosystems under shifting conditions, researchers are examining how species use the mosaic of agricultural and intact sagebrush landscapes and how agricultural practices...
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The territory of American Samoa is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change and there are many local agencies working towards adapting to this problem. These efforts often require organization, interpretation, or presentation of large amounts of data and information. However, those who directly need these data often do not have the time or experience to synthesize them in a form that meets their needs. To help climate adaptation and natural resource managers in American Samoa meet this challenge, this project aims to build a system of open-access, web-based tools to help managers and community members collect, download, and view GIS and climate related data thereby supporting a wide range of...
map background search result map search result map Assessment of Data Integration Capacity in the North Central Region Foundational Science Area Activities: Providing Relevant and Usable Climate Information to Resource Managers Ecology and Management of Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands: State of the Science Improving Projections of Wildlife and Landscapes for Natural Resource Managers Characterizing Historic Streamflow to Support Drought Planning in the Upper Missouri River Basin Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests Climate Science and Adaptation Planning Support for State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) in the North Central Region Climate Adaptation in Yukon River Fisheries: A Robust Alternative Approach to Assess Salmon Run Size Using Environmental DNA Public Land Manager Decision-Making Under Ecological Transformation Graduate Student Projects Developing the American Samoa Climate and GIS Data Portal: A Collaborative Approach to Enhancing Data Availability and Adaptation Capacity Climate Adaptability and Ecological Connectivity of Wildlife Communities in Multi-Use Sagebrush-Steppe Landscapes California Reforestation Management Toolshed: A Web-Based Dashboard of Integrating Existing Resources Understanding the Intersection of Climate Vulnerability and Resource Management in Rural Communities Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Using the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework to Manage Wildfires, Carbon Storage, and Ecological Transformations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Climate Adaptation in North Central Mountain Ecosystems Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness Developing the American Samoa Climate and GIS Data Portal: A Collaborative Approach to Enhancing Data Availability and Adaptation Capacity Improving Projections of Wildlife and Landscapes for Natural Resource Managers Using the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework to Manage Wildfires, Carbon Storage, and Ecological Transformations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Understanding the Intersection of Climate Vulnerability and Resource Management in Rural Communities Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire Climate Adaptability and Ecological Connectivity of Wildlife Communities in Multi-Use Sagebrush-Steppe Landscapes A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests California Reforestation Management Toolshed: A Web-Based Dashboard of Integrating Existing Resources Climate Adaptation in North Central Mountain Ecosystems Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs Graduate Student Projects Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Assessment of Data Integration Capacity in the North Central Region Foundational Science Area Activities: Providing Relevant and Usable Climate Information to Resource Managers Climate Science and Adaptation Planning Support for State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) in the North Central Region Characterizing Historic Streamflow to Support Drought Planning in the Upper Missouri River Basin Ecology and Management of Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands: State of the Science Climate Adaptation in Yukon River Fisheries: A Robust Alternative Approach to Assess Salmon Run Size Using Environmental DNA Public Land Manager Decision-Making Under Ecological Transformation