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Each year, plants and animals undergo certain life cycle events, such as breeding or flowering. These phenological events are linked to weather and climate, and as temperature and precipitation patterns have changed, some spring events are occurring earlier. These changes in plant phenology can have cascading effects on wildlife such as elk, moose, and mule deer, which depend on plants for food. It’s thought that the quality of forage available in the spring could play a critical role for these big game species, which need to replenish energy depleted during the winter, in order to survive and successfully reproduce. Climate change will alter plant phenology, which in turn is likely to effect when, where, and for...
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This is the primary output dataset from the project to access the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation management strategies within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (HAVO). The key objective of this project was to combine climate projections from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and plant distribution models from Price et al. to produce a series of projected species range maps over the next century. Although the project focused on HAVO, the projected species range maps were created for seven of the main Hawaiian Islands. We stored the model output as rasters (.TIF files); additionally we created multi-panel maps of these rasters that are available separately. In summary, this dataset consists...
USGS News Release 4/7/2014: " Dramatic distribution losses and a few major distribution gains are forecasted for southwestern bird and reptile species as the climate changes, according to just-published research by scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of New Mexico, and Northern Arizona University. Overall, the study forecasted species distribution losses – that is, where species are able to live – of nearly half for all but one of the 5 reptile species they examined, including for the iconic chuckwalla. The threatened Sonoran (Morafka’s) desert tortoise, however, is projected to experience little to no habitat losses from climate change...."
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3835/abstract): Climate models may be limited in their inferential use if they cannot be locally validated or do not account for spatial uncertainty. Much of the focus has gone into determining which interpolation method is best suited for creating gridded climate surfaces, which often a covariate such as elevation (Digital Elevation Model, DEM) is used to improve the interpolation accuracy. One key area where little research has addressed is in determining which covariate best improves the accuracy in the interpolation. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation was carried out in determining which covariates were most suitable for interpolating climatic...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12772/full): The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e. green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate and duration of green-up along migratory routes,...
These products are a part of the project, Predicting Risks of Island Extinctions Due to Sea-level Rise: Model Based Tools to Mitigate Terrestrial Habitat Losses in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320712004387#): An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma ( Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western...
Abstract (from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03632415.2014.996804#.VSbE2I7F8qY): Freshwaters are being transformed by multiple environmental drivers, creating uncertainty about future conditions. One way of coping with uncertainty is to manage for resilience to unanticipated events while facilitating learning through adaptive management. We outline the application of these strategies to freshwater recreational fisheries management using a case study in Wisconsin, USA, where black bass (Micropterus spp.) populations are increasing, while Walleye (Sander vitreus) populations are decreasing. Managing for heterogeneity in functional groups (e.g., age classes and prey species of sport fishes), fishery objectives,...
Abstracts (from http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ncfwrustaff/177/): Climate change has increased worldwide temperatures, affected seasonal patterns, and altered important sources of natural selection. To manage wildlife populations successfully, we must understand how patterns and processes of climate change alter trade-offs between sources of selection to predict how individuals may respond, populations may evolve, and management actions may ameliorate the costs of changing climates. Here we discuss how the migratory patterns of leapfrog and chain migration facilitate or constrain responses by migratory songbirds to spatial and temporal variation in climate change across western North America. Based on 52 years of...
Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was...
map background search result map search result map Linking Mule Deer Migration to Spring Green-Up in Wyoming Projected species range maps over the next century Linking Mule Deer Migration to Spring Green-Up in Wyoming Projected species range maps over the next century