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A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species....
Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species’ range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species’ range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8175 observations of year-to-year change in...
This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact.
On November 4, 2016, Dr. Peter Adler, Utah State University, discussed how sagebrush sensitivity to climate change varies across the region and the strengths and weaknesses of various climate modeling approaches. Healthy big sagebrush habitat is essential for the persistence of many high value conservation species across the western US. To gain confidence in predictions of climate change impacts on existing populations of big sagebrush, a research team from Utah State University compared output from four modeling approaches, each based on very different data and assumptions. These models largely agree that rising temperatures will decrease sagebrush cover and biomass in the warmest portions of the region, but increase...
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Album caption: Bone Spring black limestone in Bone Canyon, looking down stream, showing cross-bedded structureSouthern guadalupe Mountains. Culberson County, Texas, 1928.
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This archived Paleoclimatology Study is available from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), under the World Data Service (WDS) for Paleoclimatology. The associated NCEI study type is Climate Reconstruction. The data include parameters of climate reconstructions|instrumental|tree ring with a geographic location of North America. The time period coverage is from 1150 to -65 in calendar years before present (BP). See metadata information for parameter and study location details. Please cite this study when using the data.


    map background search result map search result map NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Upper Missouri River Basin 1,200 Year Streamflow Reconstructions Bone Spring black limestone in Bone Canyon, looking down stream. Texas, 1928. Bone Spring black limestone in Bone Canyon, looking down stream. Texas, 1928. NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Upper Missouri River Basin 1,200 Year Streamflow Reconstructions