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Environmental risk assessment and decision-making strategies over the last several decades have become increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex, including such approaches as expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, and toxicological risk assessment. One tool that has been used to support environmental decision-making is comparative risk assessment (CRA), but CRA lacks a structured method for arriving at an optimal project alternative. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides better-supported techniques for the comparison of project alternatives based on decision matrices, and it also provides structured methods for the incorporation of project stakeholders' opinions in the ranking...
The Colorado River system exhibits the characteristics of a heavily over-allocated or ?closing water system?. In such systems, development of mechanisms to allow resource users to acknowledge interdependence and to engage in negotiations and agreements becomes necessary. Recently, after a decade of deliberations and environmental assessments, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) was established to monitor and analyze the effects of dam operations on the Grand Canyon ecosystem and recommend adjustments intended to preserve and enhance downstream physical, cultural and environmental values. The Glen Canyon Dam effectively separates the Colorado into its lower and upper basins. Dam operations and...
The global mean surface temperature increased 0.85°C during the period 1880 – 2012. Some climate models predict an additional warming of up 2 to 4 ◦ C over the next 100 years for the primary breeding grounds for North American ducks. Such an increase has been predicted to reduce mid - continent breeding duck populations by >70%. Managing continental duck populations in the face of climate change requires understanding how waterfowl have responded to historical spatio - temporal climatic variation. However, such responses to climate may be obscured by how ducks respond to variation in land cover. We estimated effects of climate on settlement patterns of breeding ducks in the Prairie - Parkland Region (PPR), boreal...
Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species? abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability....
Policymakers and managers in the U.S. energy sector will face complex multidimensional challenges as they confront potential supply shortfalls, infrastructure constraints, and environmental limitations in the years ahead. Using a technique known as scenario analysis, this paper investigates key energy issues and decisions that could improve or reduce the ability of the United States to deal with the uncertainties that may challenge the U.S. economy during the next fifty years. Four scenarios have been developed representing a diverse range of future worlds to explore the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape U.S. energy markets and the economy for the next fifty years. Each scenario has been quantified...
The goal of barrier island restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico is to restore barrier island morphology using sediment to support the functions and habitats the islands provide. Barrier island restoration typically involves placement of sediment either directly on the island footprint or within the littoral zone for system transport and distribution. The re-engineering of barrier islands presents numerous challenges and uncertainties associated with climate change induced hurricanes/storms and other dynamic components of the system such as sediment availability and erosional trends. The goal of this study was to use a collaborative SDM approach to develop two Bayesian decision network models (DMs) for restoration...
Policymakers and managers in the U.S. energy sector will face complex multidimensional challenges as they confront potential supply shortfalls, infrastructure constraints, and environmental limitations in the years ahead. Using a technique known as scenario analysis, this paper investigates key energy issues and decisions that could improve or reduce the ability of the United States to deal with the uncertainties that may challenge the U.S. economy during the next fifty years. Four scenarios have been developed representing a diverse range of future worlds to explore the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape U.S. energy markets and the economy for the next fifty years. Each scenario has been quantified...
Environmental risk assessment and decision-making strategies over the last several decades have become increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex, including such approaches as expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, and toxicological risk assessment. One tool that has been used to support environmental decision-making is comparative risk assessment (CRA), but CRA lacks a structured method for arriving at an optimal project alternative. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides better-supported techniques for the comparison of project alternatives based on decision matrices, and it also provides structured methods for the incorporation of project stakeholders' opinions in the ranking...
Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species? abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability....
Restoration activity has exponentially increased across the Southwest since 1990. Over 37,000 records were compiled into the National River Restoration Science Synthesis (NRRSS) database to summarize restoration trends and assess project effectiveness. We analyzed data from 576 restoration projects in the Southwest (NRRSS-SW). More than 50% of projects were less than or equal to 3 km in length. The most common restoration project intent categories were riparian management, water quality management, in-stream habitat improvement, and flow modification. Common project activities were well matched to goals. Conservative estimates of total restoration costs exceeded $500 million. Most restoration dollars have been allocated...
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The goal of barrier island restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico is to restore barrier island morphology using sediment to support the functions and habitats the islands provide. Barrier island restoration typically involves placement of sediment either directly on the island footprint or within the littoral zone for system transport and distribution. The re-engineering of barrier islands presents numerous challenges and uncertainties associated with climate change induced hurricanes/storms and other dynamic components of the system such as sediment availability and erosional trends. The goal of this study was to use a collaborative SDM approach to develop two Bayesian decision network models (DMs) for restoration...
Current projections of climate change present a number of challenges to scientists and decision-makers. The projections predict a twenty-first-century climate in which many climate variables are likely to trend across broad geographical areas and at rates that are rapid by historical standards. The projections of change are likely to remain uncertain for many years to come, and complete surprises are possible. Responses to these changes will have to span large areas and many variables, and impacts will interact in complex ways. In the face of these challenges, we offer recommendations as to strategic approaches that the CALFED Science Program—which serves here as an important and illustrative example from among...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954115001466): Anticipating the ecological effects of climate change to inform natural resource climate adaptation planning represents one of the primary challenges of contemporary conservation science. Species distribution models have become a widely used tool to generate first-pass estimates of climate change impacts to species probabilities of occurrence. There are a number of technical challenges to constructing species distribution models that can be alleviated by the use of scientific workflow software. These challenges include data integration, visualization of modeled predictor–response relationships, and ensuring that models are reproducible...
The goal of barrier island restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico is to restore barrier island morphology using sediment to support the functions and habitats the islands provide. Barrier island restoration typically involves placement of sediment either directly on the island footprint or within the littoral zone for system transport and distribution. The re-engineering of barrier islands presents numerous challenges and uncertainties associated with climate change induced hurricanes/storms and other dynamic components of the system such as sediment availability and erosional trends. The goal of this study was to use a collaborative SDM approach to develop two Bayesian decision network models (DMs) for restoration...
Integration of conservation partnerships across geographic, biological, and administrative boundaries is increasingly relevant because drivers of change, such as climate shifts, transcend these boundaries. We explored successes and challenges of established conservation programs that span multiple watersheds and consider both social and ecological concerns. We asked representatives from a diverse set of 11 broad-extent conservation partnerships in 29 countries 17 questions that pertained to launching and maintaining partnerships for broad-extent conservation, specifying ultimate management objectives, and implementation and learning. Partnerships invested more funds in implementing conservation actions than any...
Science is frequently touted as the solution to dryland management problems, yet most management decisions are, by necessity, based primarily on expert knowledge and experience. This paper describes an integrated framework for organizing, synthesizing, and applying our growing understanding of aridland ecosystems using a flexible, multi-objective assessment, monitoring, and management approach. The framework is dual-purpose: (1) to coordinate the use of existing tools, resources, and diffuse knowledge, and (2) to facilitate the integration and application of new knowledge as it is developed. In particular, this framework must facilitate the integration of new knowledge about linkages among landscape units across...