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This project designed a monitoring program and protocol to detect the effects of climate change on tidal marsh bird population abundance and distribution. It is a companion to “Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment for San Francisco Bay under Future Climate Change Conditions” and will build on its products, enabling evaluation of the long-term viability of four tidal-marsh bird species threatened by impacts of climate change: Clapper Rail, Black Rail, Common Yellowthroat, and Song Sparrow (three endemic subspecies: San Pablo, Suisun, and Alameda). Information is available through the California Avian Data Center. See also: http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=lcc-page
This project integrates fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project also identifies and prioritizes potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors). Anticipated products include: 1) maps (digital and hard copy) of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, CA, CA-Southern, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, All tags...
This project used species distribution modeling, population genetics, and geospatial analysis of historical vs. modern vertebrate populations to identify climate change refugia and population connectivity across the Sierra Nevada. It is hypothesized that climate change refugia will increase persistence and stability of populations and, as a result, maintain higher genetic diversity. This work helps managers assess the need to include connectivity and refugia in climate change adaptation strategies. Results help Sierra Nevada land managers allocate limited resources, aid future scenario assessment at landscape scales, and develop a performance measure for assessing resilience.
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2013, CA, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Conservation Design, All tags...
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The Colorado River is the dominant water source for the southwestern United States, crossing through seven states before reaching Mexico. The river supplies water to approximately 36 million people, irrigates nearly six million acres of farmland within and beyond the basin, and contributes an estimated 26 billion dollars each year to the region’s recreational economy. Yet the Colorado River’s water supply is already fully allocated, meaning that the economic and environmental health of the region is closely tied to the river’s streamflow. Climate projections for the Southwest show a future marked by chronic drought and substantial reductions in streamflow. The region has already been impacted by climate change,...
The main goal of this project is to ensure that the 2011-13 climate change update to the Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Report (Baylands Goals) and other key, ongoing conservation activities in the San Francisco Bay region use the latest information about the current and future status of San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems, particularly in the context of sea-level rise. The main product of the project is the improved Sea Level Rise (SLR) Tool, specifically upgraded to inform the Baylands Goals Report update. The tool will continue to be available online at www.prbo.org/sfbayslr. All data layers going into the tool are and will continue to be downloadable from the site.
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
The CA Academy of Science and Point Blue Conservation Science conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.
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Fire in the western U.S. poses one of the greatest threats to human and ecological communities alike. In fact, fire management is the largest single expenditure of land management funds on federal lands. Now, climate change is altering wildfire patterns. Climate change in the West is creating warmer and drier conditions, resulting in an increase in the amount of dead vegetation available to fuel fires. This project sought to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers (a) examined how climate change impacts wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identified...
Most natural resource managers, planners and policy makers are now dependent upon spatially explicit environmental suitability and spatial allocation analyses to inform policy and management decisions. However, staff across agencies has been unable to stay current on understanding and applying these new data, tools and analyses. Currently, this information may be underutilized or used inappropriately, which could result in poor decisions. Two training curricula were developed – one for managers and one for GIS analysts – on current best practices for developing and using spatial information to support conservation decision making. The training materials are open-source and widely distributed to California LCC stakeholders.
The project objective is to transfer to California a previously developed prioritization framework that combines intraspecific genetic and morphological variation with traditionally used indices of biodiversity, and test its general utility for conservation prioritization. This project will integrate existing data on intraspecific variation of multiple species in the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreational Area with climate data and space-borne measurements of the environment to identify areas with high intraspecific variation.
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A conservation and restoration priorities tool was developed that provides online access to regional information including: climate change projections, watershed condition, freshwater and terrestrial species, forest ecosystem information and invasive species information.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, AK, AK, AK, AK, All tags...
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Biodiversity is declining worldwide, and this trend could potentially become more severe as climate conditions change. An integral component of proactive adaptive management planning requires forecasts of how changes in climate will affect individual species. This need has been identified my multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Forest Service. The goal of this project was to assist land and wildlife managers in anticipating which species are most vulnerable to changes in climate in the Southwest, and how resources can best be invested to facilitate adaptation. Researchers evaluated the current and future breeding ranges...
California’s native fishes are mostly endemic, with no place to go as climate change increases water temperatures and alters stream flows. Many of the alien fishes, however, are likely to benefit from the effects of climate change. The goal of this project is to synthesize life history traits, population trends, status, and threats, including climate change, for all fishes in the state. We have found that 25% of the endemic fishes are now in danger of extinction. Climate change in conjunction with alien species, agriculture, and dams pose the greatest threat to native fishes. Preliminary results from two regional analyses suggest that native fishes in the Sierra Nevada are slightly less (74%) vulnerable to climate...
This project developed a foundation for monitoring environmental change by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Phase 1 focused on landbirds, however a framework will be developed that recommends standardized monitoring for other taxa and environmental attributes. Phase II Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that 1) refines site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) works with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develops and/or adopting existing protocols...
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In California, increased wildfire activity has been linked to decreasing snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Not only has this translated into a longer fire season, but reduced snowpack has cascading effects that impact streamflow, water supplies, agricultural productivity, and ecosystems. California receives 80% of its precipitation during the winter, so mountain snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state’s water supply. One factor that affects the amount of winter precipitation (and therefore snowpack) in California is the North Pacific Jet (NPJ)—a current of strong, high altitude winds that occur over the northern Pacific Ocean. Winters when the NPJ is located further north than normal are drier than...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service, Report; Tags: 2013, CA, CA-wide, CASC, Completed, All tags...
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In the Southwestern U.S., rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are resulting in changes such as more frequent and severe wildfires and prolonged drought. Natural resource managers striving to make decisions in the face of these changing conditions can benefit from information on past, present, and future climate. While an array of climate assessments are available, it is unclear how useful or relevant this information is for resource management decision-making in the Southwest. This project sought to identify the types of environmental information that resource managers in the Southwest need to make climate-related management decisions. To meet this goal, researchers first assessed the degree...
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Natural climate variability can obscure or enhance long-term trends in experienced weather due to climate change. This can happen temporarily on timescales of a season to several years to a decade or two. Natural variability is poorly described and attributed to specific causes, contributing to uncertainty and misunderstandings about the nature of climate change that stakeholders and resource managers attempt to anticipate. There exists, therefore, a need to clarify the magnitude and causality of natural climate variability. This connection needs to be explained for locally-experienced weather and particularly for daily extreme events, whose seasonal behavior impacts both resources and imagination. Conversely, it...
The California Invasive Plant Council (Cal-IPC) developed a “risk mapping” approach that combines comprehensive distribution maps with maps of current and future suitable range to show where each (invasive) species is likely to spread. The distribution maps are based on a new dataset created through a major campaign to collect expert opinion data from local resource managers across the state. From this dataset, Cal-IPC recently completed risk maps and management recommendations for 43 invasive plant species in the Sierra Nevada. The proposed project will build an online tool for these data. The tool will allow natural resource managers to generate risk maps and summary statistics for areas they select, and to determine...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2010, 2012, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, All tags...


map background search result map search result map Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Assessing the Use of Climate Information in Resource Management Decisions in the Southwest A Conservation Priorities Tool for the North Pacific LCC A Conservation Priorities Tool for the North Pacific LCC Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Assessing the Use of Climate Information in Resource Management Decisions in the Southwest Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest