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North American freshwater mussels are in serious decline as a result of pollution and habitat destruction from human activities. In addition, many mussel species are living in habitats that push the upper limits of their heat tolerance, which may become problematic as the climate and, as a result, water temperatures warm. As part of this project, we created a set of models to predict how freshwater mussels would respond to climate change effects. Our primary objective was to help federal and state natural resource managers forecast how mussel species will respond to climate change over the next 30 to 50 years, so that managers can develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address these changes. Additionally,...
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The number of fish collected in routine monitoring surveys often varies from year to year, from lake to lake, and from location to location within a lake. Although some variability in fish catches is expected across factors such as location and season, we know less about how large-scale disturbances like climate change will influence population variability. The Laurentian Great Lakes in North America are the largest group of freshwater lakes in the world, and they have experienced major changes due to fluctuations in pollution and nutrient loadings, exploitation of natural resources, introductions of non-native species, and shifting climatic patterns. In this project, we analyzed established long-term data about...
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The Southeastern United States has vast underground ecosystems where temperatures vary little throughout the year and humidity is always near 100%. These cave and karst ecosystems provide many services to people, such as recreational opportunities, revenue from tourism, and groundwater storage. Caves also provide habitats for important and endangered species, like bats that eat mosquitoes and crop pests. Cave-dwelling species have evolved to live in relatively stable climates, so they may be especially sensitive to climate change. However, it is unclear how surface climate change will affect cave climates and the species that rely on them, because caves are remote environments that have long been difficult to...
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Prescribed burning is a primary tool used to reduce wildfire risk and manage ecosystems to achieve a range of ecological, economic and societal goals.  The ability of fire managers to use prescribed fire as a management tool is complicated in regions such as the Southeast because of rapid population growth, extensive suburban development, and a changing climate. Such change restricts prescribed burning while also highlighting the necessity of an active prescribed fire management regime to reduce wildfire risk in these communities. To help managers make decisions in light of these factors, there is a need to document: 1) the current conditions under which practitioners are willing to burn and restrictions to active...
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The southeast United States has many lakes, streams and reservoirs that serve as important drinking water sources, recreational, agricultural, and ecological uses. Unfortunately, harmful algal blooms are becoming more common in these waters, causing health issues for humans and animals. While it is clear that nutrients stimulate algae growth, it isn’t clear if there are other parameters that stimulate the development of harmful algal blooms. The scientific literature describes additional parameters that may affect algae growth, such as storm occurrence, temperature, dissolved metals, erosion of soils, length of growing season, and hydroperiod.This project will address these different parameters and examine how climate...
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Barrier islands protect mainland areas from storm surge, but can erode over time and require restoration. Ship Island, a barrier island off the coast of Mississippi, provides an example of this: the island was battered by Hurricane Camille in 1969 and split into two separate islands. As part of the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers plans to use approximately 22 million cubic yards of sand to close the gap between East and West Ship Islands. This will restore both the island’s physical integrity and habitat for important species such as sea turtles, shorebirds, and Gulf sturgeon. This project served as a case study to test the usefulness of structured decision-making – a...
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The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than enabling systems to adapt to projected changes. Recognizing this problem state fish and wildlife agencies, together with US Fish and Wildlife Service and others, have initiated the Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS). This project will support the SECAS effort, which aims to develop a collaborative network of conservation...
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Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most likely to occur, expressing results in terms of species persistence to help resource managers understand the long-term sustainability of bird populations.
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The Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SE CASC) promotes collaborative research, with a focus on training next-generation scientists through active engagement with stakeholders and agencies, to enhance landscape-level conservation and management of natural and cultural resources. The SE CASC is hosted by North Carolina State University (NCSU) with consortium partners Duke University, Auburn University, University of Florida, University of Tennessee, and University of South Carolina. University host NCSU connects the SE CASC to top scientists and stakeholders across the region to address the complexities of land management and conservation during rapid climate change, population growth, and urbanization....
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Consortium Principal Investigators lead Working Groups on a variety of global change topics that draw on their scientific strengths and interests. The Working Groups bring together multi-disciplinary teams of academics, USGS staff, Tribal Nations, representatives from state agencies, other stakeholders, and students to address regionally-relevant emerging issues and to develop syntheses of topics to inform science needs and improve co-production. To learn more about the working groups, visit: https://secasc.ncsu.edu/home/partners/academic-partners/
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The Northwest Climate Conference annually brings together researchers and practitioners from around the Pacific Northwest to discuss scientific results, challenges, and solutions related to climate impacts on people, natural resources, and infrastructure in the region. It is the region's premier opportunity for a cross-disciplinary exchange of knowledge and ideas about regional climate, climate impacts, and climate adaptation science and practice. The conference also provides a forum for discussing emerging policy and management goals, objectives, and information needs related to regional climate impacts and adaptation. Conference participants include policy- and decision-makers, resource managers, and scientists...
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Invasive species and climate change represent two major global change threats to ecosystems across the United States and around the world. Invasives can have significant and often irreversible impacts, including the loss of native species or the spread of diseases. Climate change brings other threats to ecosystems, and can also exacerbate and facilitate the spread of invasives throughout natural areas. This project is focused on piloting a collaboration between scientists and natural resource managers in the Northwestern U.S. focused on the nexus of climate change and invasive species. The project team members are working in collaboration with Region 1 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop a...
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Recent advancements in climate modeling, remote sensing, and ecological science have produced a variety of digital geospatial datasets representing many aspects of climate-change ecology that can be applied to conservation and natural-resource management in the face of climate change. The ever increasing body of climate-ecology spatial datasets provides opportunities for natural-resource managers to anticipate climate-driven changes to ecosystems, habitats, and the larger landscape, however, natural-resource managers face many challenges when trying to incorporate these diverse sources of information into on-the-ground decision-making. The Northwest CASC recently supported the development of A guidebook to spatial...
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Precipitation in Hawaiʻi’s higher elevation upland areas provides needed water to both people and ecosystems. Once it reaches the ground, rain can either run off and contribute to water flow in streams, or it can infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants and recharge aquifers and groundwater. The exact route that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the duration and intensity of rainfall, the topography of the land, soil properties, and vegetation. The introduction and spread of invasive plants and animals in Hawaiian forests, which alters the water-use and soil characteristics of ecosystems, can have large impacts on downstream water users. Increased demand and competition for limited...
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Coral reefs are sometimes called “rainforests of the sea” because of their immense biological diversity and economic value. While coral reefs are sensitive to changes in their environment such as altered temperature or pollution, some reefs are more resilient, or able to recover from disturbance more quickly, than others. The overarching objective of this project was to gather information on coral reef resilience and vulnerability to climate change that could inform coastal management decision-making in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Scientists collaborated with local managers to survey reefs at 78 locations throughout the CMNI and evaluate indicators of resilience, such as numbers of juvenile...
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The southeastern U.S. is home to more than half of the animal and plant species that are being reviewed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to determine if they are threatened or endangered due to losses or changes in habitat. The longleaf pine ecosystem, which is native to the southeastern U.S., supports several animal species that are considered a priority to be reviewed, based on significant threats, how much knowledge we have about the species, and opportunities for conserving them. These include the gopher tortoise, striped newt, gopher frog, southern hognose snake, and Florida pine snake. This ecosystem also supports a large number of priority plants. State wildlife agencies in the Southeast are...
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Estuaries are located at the interface where rivers meet the sea, creating unique ecosystems with complex physical and biological processes. Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services to people, including flood protection from high tides and storm surges, commercial fisheries, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and wildlife food and habitat. Coastal wetlands are also home to hundreds of migratory and resident wildlife species including threatened and endangered species of management concern. Wetlands also have the unique ability to increase their elevation relative to sea-level rise, therefore protecting nearby communities from flooding. In California, prolonged drought and extreme storm events...
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Mountain ecosystems are at risk from climate change and may be experiencing accelerated warming relative to lower environments. Understanding climatic and ecosystem processes at meso-, topo-, and micro-scales is limited, and constrains our ability to accurately evaluate vulnerability, and assess responses under future climates. Of special interest for climate studies are upper subalpine forests, the alpine treeline ecotone, and the alpine zones. We will use case-study ecosystems to address climatic processes and ecological responses at topo- and micro-scales, including: 1) treeline ecotone and role of phenotypic plasticity in Pinus albicaulis, 2) rocky ecosystems and Ochotona princeps, 3) demography of subalpine...
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Fire size, frequency, overall area burned, and severity are increasing across many vegetation types in the southwestern U.S. In many cases, large contiguous areas are burning repeatedly at high severity, triggering vegetation type conversions (VTC), where once-dominant coniferous forests fail to return to their pre-fire state, often transitioning to shrub- or grass-dominated systems. Loss of these forests affects biodiversity, ecosystem services, and culturally-valued resources. The science and management communities, however, currently lack a comprehensive understanding of VTC in this region. This study will help identify and fill sizable research gaps by synthesizing manager observations and the current scientific...
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Many inland waters across the United States are experiencing warming water temperatures. The impacts of this warming on aquatic ecosystems are significant in many areas, causing problems for fisheries management, as many economically and ecologically important fish species are experiencing range shifts and population declines. Fisheries and natural resource managers need timely and usable data and tools in order to understand and predict changes to lakes and their biota. A previous Northeast CSC-funded project modeled lake temperatures to help state agencies in the Midwest understand trends in walleye and largemouth bass populations and predict lake-specific fish populations under future climate scenarios. These...
map background search result map search result map Modeling the Response of Freshwater Mussels to Changes in Water Temperature, Habitat, and Streamflow Understanding the Varying Responses of Fish Populations to Future Climate Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Structured Decision-Making as a Tool for Coastal Restoration: A Case Study on Ship Island, Mississippi SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns Providing Science for the Conservation of Animals in the Southeastern Longleaf Pine Ecosystem Support for the Eighth Annual Northwest Climate Conference Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries “Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes Understanding Fire-caused Vegetation Type Conversion in Southwestern Conifer Forests under Current and Future Climate Conditions Incorporation of Climate Change Science Into Invasive Species Management Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by North Carolina State University (2017-2023) SE CASC Working Groups Clarifying Science Needs for Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Harmful Algal Blooms in Southeastern United States Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation Developing a Cave Conservation Management Toolbox by Exploring Cave Microclimates and Biodiversity Patterns Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Support for the Eighth Annual Northwest Climate Conference Incorporation of Climate Change Science Into Invasive Species Management Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest “Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes Providing Science for the Conservation of Animals in the Southeastern Longleaf Pine Ecosystem Understanding Fire-caused Vegetation Type Conversion in Southwestern Conifer Forests under Current and Future Climate Conditions Understanding the Varying Responses of Fish Populations to Future Climate SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species Developing a Cave Conservation Management Toolbox by Exploring Cave Microclimates and Biodiversity Patterns Clarifying Science Needs for Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Harmful Algal Blooms in Southeastern United States Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by North Carolina State University (2017-2023) SE CASC Working Groups Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast Modeling the Response of Freshwater Mussels to Changes in Water Temperature, Habitat, and Streamflow