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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
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One of the greatest ecological, social and economic issues of the day is the problem of climate change. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are increasing global temperatures. Much of the CO2 dissolves in the ocean, creating more acidic conditions and leading to a process known as ocean acidification (OA). Higher temperatures and increased levels of CO2 operating independently are known to be detrimental to corals, but little is known about their effect when operating in unison. Irradiance has a great influence on coral calcification rates and can interact with higher temperature and increased OA to an unknown extent. Therefore, experiments were performed in continuous flow mesocosms under...
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We analyzed the chemical composition of wood produced by Māmane, a tropical tree growing in Hawai’i, in order to reconstruct changes in climate over the Hawaiian Islands. Specifically, we measured changes in the relative abundance of carbon and oxygen isotopes taken up by the trees during photosynthesis at high elevation sites on Mauna Kea. We found that these isotopes reflect the climatic conditions (precipitation and temperature) under which the trees lived, allowing us to reconstruct relative changes in climate extending back ~130 years. Our results indicate decadal-scale changes in precipitation that correlate well with large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns that dominate much of the Pacific....
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In the tropics, ample freshwater is the primary resource supporting thriving human and ecological communities. In the Pacific Islands, many watersheds are threatened by climate change, urban encroachment, and invasion by water-demanding exotic plant species like strawberry guava (SG). To maintain an adequate freshwater supply, adaptive management strategies are needed to address these concerns while confronting operational barriers to implementation. We developed a prototype watershed decision support tool (WDST) that incorporated: (i) distributed hydrology modeling to quantify effects of climate change and SG invasion on freshwater yield; (ii) a decision support tool that linked potential changes in yield with...
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The objective of this experimental research is to determine if genetic enrichment may enhance survival, growth, and adaptation of important native Hawaiian montane plant species to changing precipitation patterns by relocating conspecifics to more favorable climate regimes at higher elevation. We will collect the seeds of montane plants from low and high eevation sources, conduct outplanting trials in common locations along an elevation gradient, and monitor growth, survival, and vigor over a two_year period to evaluate a potential restoration strategy for mountain parklands of Mauna Kea, on the island of Hawaii.
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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
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Coral reef ecosystems are exposed to a diverse suite of environmental forcing. Waves, wind, currents, temperature, irradiance, salinity, nutrients, turbidity, aragonite saturation state, and planktonic productivity each influence coral reefs to varying degrees, fluctuating on daily, seasonal and interannual time scales and across spatial scales spanning reefs, islands and archipelagos [1-3]. Environmental forcing is highly influential to reef ecosystem process and function, including coral reef extent and growth rates and the abundance, diversity, and morphology of reef organisms [1, 4]. Through time, coral reef ecosystems have adapted to exist within a particular climatological setting; a finite range in long-term...
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
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HaleNet, the climate network on Haleakalā, Maui, is unique in Hawai‘i for its coverage of highly diverse environments, range different climate variables monitored, high temporal resolution, and longterm record. As the record length has grown and climate change has begun to affect Hawai‘i, the value of maintaining and improving this vital network has increased. Support is needed to continue operation and maintenance, replace aging sensors, data loggers, communication equipment, and support structures, and conduct data management and analysis tasks. The overarching goal of this project is to ensure continued operation and maintenance of the HaleNet system, including field operations, equipment maintenance and replacement,...
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This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the National Climate Assessment (NCA) 2013 report. The NCA is being conducted under the auspices of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which requires a report to the President and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates scientific information from multiple sources and sectors to highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. Findings from the NCA provide input to federal science priorities and are used by U.S. citizens, communities,...
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Pelagic seabirds (albatrosses and petrels) find food by relying on distinct oceanographic features like transition zones, upwelling, and large eddies. These oceanographic features change intensity, distribution, and duration during El Niño/La Niña events resulting in poor breeding performance in seabirds. Climate models predict that these perturbations will last longer, be more variable, and in some cases, cause major shifts in oceanographic regimes. We analyzed our decade-­‐long dataset of tracked Laysan and black-­‐footed albatrosses (N = 192 individual trips) the breed in the Northwest Hawaiian Islands to investigate the mechanistic role that oceanography plays in affecting the foraging distributions and its...
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This study focused on sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems in Hawai‘i to climate change. These Hawaiian ecosystems are becoming warmer and drier, and are relevant because they house many rare species, represent the last remaining stretches of uninvaded landscapes, and include wao akua – the small-statured cloud forests of great cultural significance that are the ‘realm of the gods’. Rapid climate change here presents a disproportionately high climate change impact risk. We provided models that relate current, past, and future distribution of plant species from 6000 – 7500’ feet in elevation on Haleakalā, to mean climate, extreme drought events, and soil properties. We constructed 24 models of current vegetation...
    map background search result map search result map Reconstructing past Hawaiian precipitation using stable carbon isotope analysis of Māmane trees Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Synergistic Impacts of Global Warming and Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs Responses of Hawaiian Albatrosses to Environmental Change Oceanographic time series and climatologies for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Facilitating Adaptation in Montane Plants to Changing Precipitation along an Elevation Gradient Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i Facilitating Adaptation in Montane Plants to Changing Precipitation along an Elevation Gradient Reconstructing past Hawaiian precipitation using stable carbon isotope analysis of Māmane trees A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Synergistic Impacts of Global Warming and Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Responses of Hawaiian Albatrosses to Environmental Change Oceanographic time series and climatologies for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment