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A new method for automatic detection of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is developed and applied to an atmospheric reanalysis, yielding an extensive catalog of ARs land-falling along the west coast of North America during 1948–2017. This catalog provides a large array of variables that can be used to examine AR cases and their climate-scale variability in exceptional detail. The new record of AR activity, as presented, validated and examined here, provides a perspective on the seasonal cycle and the interannual-interdecadal variability of AR activity affecting the hydroclimate of western North America. Importantly, AR intensity does not exactly follow the climatological pattern of AR frequency. Strong links to hydroclimate...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0194.1): This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of cloudiness across mountain zones in the western United States. Daily average cloud albedo is derived from a 19-yr series (1996–2014) of half-hourly Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images. During springtime when incident radiation is active in driving snowmelt–runoff processes, the magnitude of daily cloud variations can exceed 50% of long-term averages. Even when aggregated over 3-month periods, cloud albedo varies by ±10% of long-term averages in many locations. Rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOFs) of daily cloud albedo anomalies over high-elevation...
A new satellite-derived low cloud retrieval reveals rich spatial texture and coherent space-time propagation in summertime California coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Throughout the region, CLC is greatest during May–September but has considerable monthly variability within this summer season. On average, June is cloudiest along the coast of southern California and northern Baja, Mexico, while July is cloudiest along northern California's coast. Over the course of the summer, the core of peak CLC migrates northward along coastal California, reaching its northernmost extent in late July/early August, then recedes while weakening. The timing and movement of the CLC climatological structure is related to the summer evolution...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-2003-4): In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management...
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The Salt and Verde river basins in northeastern Arizona are a vital source of fresh water for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area and for two Native American tribes who rely on the basins’ natural resources for their livelihoods. The region depends on winter rain and snow to replenish the river basins’ water supply. Atmospheric rivers – long, narrow channels in the atmosphere that carry water vapor from the Pacific Ocean – supply a substantial portion of this winter precipitation. While atmospheric rivers are critical for maintaining water resources and preventing drought, they occasionally cause extreme storms that lead to flooding. Scientists project that climate change will affect the intensity and frequency...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0167.1): Annual precipitation in California is more variable than in any other state and is highly influenced by precipitation in winter months. A primary question among stakeholders is whether low precipitation in certain months is a harbinger of annual drought in California. Historical precipitation data from 1895 to 2013 are investigated to identify leading monthly indicators of annual drought in each of the seven climate divisions (CDs) as well as statewide. For this study, drought conditions are defined as monthly/annual (October–September) precipitation below the 20th/30th percentile, and a leading indicator is defined as a monthly drought...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. Much of the existing research on anticipating the effects of changing conditions on coastal ecosystems relies on global or regional scale data, meaning that the detailed information necessary for local-scale...
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Estuaries are located at the interface where rivers meet the sea, creating unique ecosystems with complex physical and biological processes. Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services to people, including flood protection from high tides and storm surges, commercial fisheries, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and wildlife food and habitat. Coastal wetlands are also home to hundreds of migratory and resident wildlife species including threatened and endangered species of management concern. Wetlands also have the unique ability to increase their elevation relative to sea-level rise, therefore protecting nearby communities from flooding. In California, prolonged drought and extreme storm events...
Abstract (from Springer): Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2517-1): Daily precipitation variability as observed from weather stations is heavy tailed at most locations around the world. It is thought that diversity in precipitation-causing weather events is fundamental in producing heavy-tailed distributions, and it arises from theory that at least one of the precipitation types contributing to a heavy-tailed climatological record must also be heavy-tailed. Precipitation is a multi-scale phenomenon with a rich spatial structure and short decorrelation length and timescales; the spatiotemporal scale at which precipitation is observed is thus an important factor when considering its statistics and extremes....
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12237-017-0224-3): Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise depends on marsh plain elevation, tidal range, subsurface processes, as well as surface accretion, of which suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) is a critical component. However, spatial and temporal patterns of inorganic sedimentation are poorly quantified within and across Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed)-dominated marshes. We compared vertical accretion rates and re-examined previously published suspended-sediment patterns during dry-weather periods at Seal Beach Wetlands, which is characterized by a mix of Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) and pickleweed, and for Mugu Lagoon, where cordgrass is rare....
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In the southwestern United States, droughts of 10 or more years are projected to become more frequent by 2100. It also is projected that there will be fewer wet days per year, with more precipitation falling on those wet days. Such climatic extremes can strongly affect wild animals and plants, ecosystems, and humans. In the Southwest, more frequent and intense storms may negatively affect protected species in coastal salt marshes; changes in the timing and amount of precipitation could lead to increases in fuel loads; and increasingly humid heat waves could lead to higher incidence of heat-related illness among visitors to national parks. This project will improve understanding of climate extremes and their potential...
A new dataset and publication developed by researchers working with the DOI Southwest Climate Science Center helps identify the ecological impacts of atmospheric rivers in the interior Southwest. Researchers examined how atmospheric rivers affect dryland vegetation productivity and thus fuel loads available for wildfires.
Abstract (from http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124023/meta): Temperature variability in the Southwest US is investigated using skew-normal probability distribution functions (SN PDFs) fitted to observed wintertime daily maximum temperature records. These PDFs vary significantly between years, with important geographical differences in the relationship between the central tendency and tails, revealing differing linkages between weather and climate. The warmest and coldest extremes do not necessarily follow the distribution center. In some regions one tail of the distribution shows more variability than does the other. For example, in California the cold tail is more variable while the warm...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Improved coastal stratocumulus (Sc) cloud forecasts are needed because traditional satellite cloud motion vectors (CMV) do not accurately predict how Sc clouds move or dissipate in time, which often results in an underprediction of irradiance in the morning hours. CMV forecasts assume clouds move in the direction of the average regional wind field, which is not necessarily the case for Sc clouds. Sc clouds over the land form at night and typically reach their maximum coverage before sunrise. During the day, heating from solar radiation at the surface and entrainment of dry and warm air from above causes Sc clouds to dissipate. A Sc cloud edge forecast using Geostationary Operational...
    map background search result map search result map Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 Improving Understanding of Climate Extremes in the Southwestern United States Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 Improving Understanding of Climate Extremes in the Southwestern United States